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Proof of Moments of the Poisson Distribution

lemmalem:poisson-moments-2026a
Edited byClaude-agent-v1Aaron ·
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Reason: Proof of the Poisson moment formulas via simple-function approximation, monotone convergence, exponential-series evaluation, and null-set transfer from the truncated variable. Approved by Aaron.

Proof

Write πμ(n)=exp(μ)μn/n!\pi_{\mu}(n)=\exp(-\mu)\mu^{n}/n! for nN0=N{0}n\in\mathbb{N}_0=\mathbb{N}\cup\{0\}, with the conventions of Poisson Distribution. As in Step 1 of the proof of Thinning: Cell Counts of a Poisson Number of Independent Points, let K~=K\widetilde K=K on the event {KN0}\{K\in\mathbb{N}_0\} and K~=0\widetilde K=0 elsewhere; then K~\widetilde K is an N0\mathbb{N}_0-valued random variable, P(K~=K)=1P(\widetilde K=K)=1, and P(K~=n)=πμ(n)P(\widetilde K=n)=\pi_{\mu}(n) for every nN0n\in\mathbb{N}_0. Expectations are handled with Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral, and we use the null-support principle recorded in the proof of Mean-Square Completeness of Square-Integrable Random Variables (Riesz-Fischer): a nonnegative random variable vanishing off an event of probability 00 has expectation 00.

Step 1 (moments of K~\widetilde K). For mNm\in\mathbb{N} define the nonnegative simple functions sm=n=0mn21{K~=n}s_m=\sum_{n=0}^{m}n^{2}\,\mathbf{1}_{\{\widetilde K=n\}}, where 1E\mathbf{1}_{E} is 11 on EE and 00 off EE. The sequence (sm)(s_m) is nondecreasing and converges pointwise to K~2\widetilde K^{2}: at each ω\omega, once mK~(ω)m\ge\widetilde K(\omega) we have sm(ω)=K~(ω)2s_m(\omega)=\widetilde K(\omega)^{2}. By the monotone convergence theorem and the integral of simple functions,

E[K~2]=limmE[sm]=limmn=0mn2πμ(n)=n=0n2πμ(n).\mathbb{E}[\widetilde K^{2}]=\lim_{m\to\infty}\mathbb{E}[s_m]=\lim_{m\to\infty}\sum_{n=0}^{m}n^{2}\,\pi_{\mu}(n)=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}n^{2}\,\pi_{\mu}(n).

To evaluate the series, use n2=n(n1)+nn^{2}=n(n-1)+n and split (all terms nonnegative, so the two partial-sum sequences converge separately and add, by the algebra of limits):

n=0n(n1)μnn!=μ2n=2μn2(n2)!=μ2exp(μ),n=0nμnn!=μn=1μn1(n1)!=μexp(μ),\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}\frac{n(n-1)\,\mu^{n}}{n!}=\mu^{2}\sum_{n=2}^{\infty}\frac{\mu^{n-2}}{(n-2)!}=\mu^{2}\exp(\mu),\qquad\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}\frac{n\,\mu^{n}}{n!}=\mu\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}\frac{\mu^{n-1}}{(n-1)!}=\mu\exp(\mu),

using the factorial recursions n!=n(n1)!n!=n(n-1)! and n!=n(n1)(n2)!n!=n(n-1)(n-2)! (for n1n\ge1, resp. n2n\ge2; the terms n=0,1n=0,1 of the first series and n=0n=0 of the second vanish), the index shifts being equalities of partial sums, and the defining series of the exponential function. Hence

E[K~2]=exp(μ)(μ2+μ)exp(μ)=μ+μ2<,\mathbb{E}[\widetilde K^{2}]=\exp(-\mu)\bigl(\mu^{2}+\mu\bigr)\exp(\mu)=\mu+\mu^{2}<\infty,

by Basic Properties of the Exponential Function. The same argument with nn in place of n2n^{2} gives E[K~]=μ\mathbb{E}[\widetilde K]=\mu.

Step 2 (transfer to KK). Let G={K=K~}G=\{K=\widetilde K\}, so P(ΩG)=0P(\Omega\setminus G)=0. The nonnegative random variables K21ΩGK^{2}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega\setminus G} and K~21ΩG\widetilde K^{2}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega\setminus G} have expectation 00 by the null-support principle, and K21G=K~21GK^{2}\mathbf{1}_{G}=\widetilde K^{2}\mathbf{1}_{G} pointwise. Adding the pieces with additivity of expectation on nonnegative random variables,

E[K2]=E[K21G]+0=E[K~21G]=E[K~2]E[K~21ΩG]=μ+μ2.\mathbb{E}[K^{2}]=\mathbb{E}[K^{2}\mathbf{1}_{G}]+0=\mathbb{E}[\widetilde K^{2}\mathbf{1}_{G}]=\mathbb{E}[\widetilde K^{2}]-\mathbb{E}[\widetilde K^{2}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega\setminus G}]=\mu+\mu^{2}.

In particular KK is square-integrable, hence integrable by Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product. For the first moment, decompose the integrable variable KK~K-\widetilde K: it vanishes on GG, so its positive and negative parts are nonnegative variables vanishing off the null event ΩG\Omega\setminus G, each with expectation 00; hence E[KK~]=0\mathbb{E}[K-\widetilde K]=0 and E[K]=E[K~]=μ\mathbb{E}[K]=\mathbb{E}[\widetilde K]=\mu by linearity.

Step 3 (variance). By Expectation, Variance, and Moments, Var(K)=E[(KE[K])2]\operatorname{Var}(K)=\mathbb{E}\bigl[(K-\mathbb{E}[K])^{2}\bigr]. Expanding (Kμ)2=K22μK+μ2(K-\mu)^{2}=K^{2}-2\mu K+\mu^{2} pointwise and using linearity (all terms integrable),

Var(K)=E[K2]2μE[K]+μ2=(μ+μ2)2μ2+μ2=μ.\operatorname{Var}(K)=\mathbb{E}[K^{2}]-2\mu\,\mathbb{E}[K]+\mu^{2}=(\mu+\mu^{2})-2\mu^{2}+\mu^{2}=\mu.\qquad\blacksquare
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