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Proof of Anchored Good-Set Clocks on a Subinterval and the Block Escape Bound

lemmalem:anchored-good-set-clocks-2026a
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Reason: First publication: proof of the anchored good-set clocks lemma.

Proof

Throughout, "the extended lemma" is the extended good-set stopping-time lemma, "the progressive lemma" is the progressive measurability lemma for the realized control, "the causality lemma" is the causality and adaptedness lemma, and "the toolkit" is the integral toolkit on a compact interval. All notation is that of the statement. We record three facts used repeatedly. (F1) For t0≀t≀Tt_0\le t\le T and every Ο‰\omega: 0≀Et(Ο‰)βˆ’Et0(Ο‰)≀4R2(tβˆ’t0)0\le\mathcal{E}_t(\omega)-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}(\omega)\le4R^2(t-t_0) and paths of E\mathcal{E} are nondecreasing and continuous (claim 5 of the progressive lemma), and 0≀Ot(Ο‰)βˆ’Ot0(Ο‰)≀tβˆ’t00\le\mathcal{O}_t(\omega)-\mathcal{O}_{t_0}(\omega)\le t-t_0 with nondecreasing continuous paths (claim 1 of the extended lemma); moreover Ξ΄2(Otβˆ’Ot0)≀Etβˆ’Et0\delta^2(\mathcal{O}_t-\mathcal{O}_{t_0})\le\mathcal{E}_t-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}: at every (s,Ο‰)(s,\omega) one has Ξ΄2Isout(Ο‰)β‰€βˆ£Ξ±^(s,Ο‰)βˆ’As∣2\delta^2I^{\mathrm{out}}_s(\omega)\le|\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega)-A_s|^2 (immediate from the definition of IoutI^{\mathrm{out}} in the preamble of the extended lemma: on {Isout=1}\{I^{\mathrm{out}}_s=1\} the right side exceeds Ξ΄2\delta^2, and otherwise the left side is 00), so by the splitting fact (F3) below and monotonicity of the integral, Ξ΄2(Otβˆ’Ot0)=Ξ΄2∫[0,T]1(t0,t]Isout dsβ‰€βˆ«[0,T]1(t0,t]∣α^(s,β‹…)βˆ’As∣2ds=Etβˆ’Et0\delta^2(\mathcal{O}_t-\mathcal{O}_{t_0})=\delta^2\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]}I^{\mathrm{out}}_s\,ds\le\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]}\bigl|\hat{\alpha}(s,\cdot)-A_s\bigr|^2ds=\mathcal{E}_t-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}. (F2) YtY_t is Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable with continuous paths and 0≀Yt≀KY0\le Y_t\le K_Y (claim 4 of the causality lemma). (F3) (Splitting.) For a bounded measurable hh on [0,T][0,T] and 0≀t0≀t≀T0\le t_0\le t\le T: ∫[0,t]h dsβˆ’βˆ«[0,t0]h ds=∫[0,T]1(t0,t]h ds\int_{[0,t]}h\,ds-\int_{[0,t_0]}h\,ds=\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]}h\,ds. Indeed, by claim 2 of the toolkit (zero extension) the two left integrals equal ∫[0,T]1[0,t]h\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{[0,t]}h and ∫[0,T]1[0,t0]h\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{[0,t_0]}h, and 1[0,t]βˆ’1[0,t0]=1(t0,t]\mathbf{1}_{[0,t]}-\mathbf{1}_{[0,t_0]}=\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]} pointwise, so the claim follows from linearity of the integral. In particular Et(Ο‰)βˆ’Et0(Ο‰)=∫[0,T]1(t0,t](s)∣α^(s,Ο‰)βˆ’As∣2ds\mathcal{E}_t(\omega)-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}(\omega)=\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]}(s)|\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega)-A_s|^2ds, and likewise for O\mathcal{O}.

Claim 1. All three sets are contained in [t0,T][t_0,T], so each of ΟƒY,ΟƒE,Οƒout\sigma_Y,\sigma_{\mathcal{E}},\sigma_{\mathrm{out}} is [t0,T][t_0,T]-valued (t0t_0 is a lower bound, and the default value is TT); hence so is Οƒβˆ—\sigma^*.

The Lipschitz clocks. Let (Vt)t∈[t0,T](V_t)_{t\in[t_0,T]} stand for either (Etβˆ’Et0)t∈[t0,T](\mathcal{E}_t-\mathcal{E}_{t_0})_{t\in[t_0,T]} or (Otβˆ’Ot0)t∈[t0,T](\mathcal{O}_t-\mathcal{O}_{t_0})_{t\in[t_0,T]}, let c>0c>0 stand for cEc_{\mathcal{E}} or ΞΈout\theta_{\mathrm{out}} accordingly, and let Οƒ\sigma be the associated clock. By (F1), Vt0=0V_{t_0}=0, every path of VV is nondecreasing with 0≀Vtβˆ’Vr≀L(tβˆ’r)0\le V_t-V_r\le L(t-r) for t0≀r≀t≀Tt_0\le r\le t\le T (with L=4R2L=4R^2 or L=1L=1), and Vt=Etβˆ’Et0V_t=\mathcal{E}_t-\mathcal{E}_{t_0} resp. Otβˆ’Ot0\mathcal{O}_t-\mathcal{O}_{t_0} is Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable for tβ‰₯t0t\ge t_0 (Et\mathcal{E}_t and Et0\mathcal{E}_{t_0} are Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable by claim 5 of the progressive lemma and Gt0βŠ†Gt\mathcal{G}_{t_0}\subseteq\mathcal{G}_t; likewise for O\mathcal{O} by claim 1 of the extended lemma). The greatest-lower-bound argument of claim 2 of the extended lemma applies unchanged to VV on [t0,T][t_0,T]: if the hitting set is nonempty then every element tt of it satisfies tβ‰₯Οƒ(Ο‰)t\ge\sigma(\omega) and c≀Vt(Ο‰)≀VΟƒ(Ο‰)(Ο‰)+L (tβˆ’Οƒ(Ο‰))c\le V_t(\omega)\le V_{\sigma(\omega)}(\omega)+L\,(t-\sigma(\omega)), so, when L>0L>0, Οƒ(Ο‰)+(cβˆ’VΟƒ(Ο‰)(Ο‰))/L\sigma(\omega)+\bigl(c-V_{\sigma(\omega)}(\omega)\bigr)/L is a lower bound of the hitting set, whence VΟƒ(Ο‰)(Ο‰)β‰₯cV_{\sigma(\omega)}(\omega)\ge c (when L=0L=0 the path of VV is constant 0<c0<c and the hitting set is empty). From this, for q∈[t0,T)q\in[t_0,T): if Vq(Ο‰)β‰₯cV_q(\omega)\ge c then qq belongs to the hitting set and Οƒ(Ο‰)≀q\sigma(\omega)\le q; conversely if Οƒ(Ο‰)≀q<T\sigma(\omega)\le q<T then the hitting set is nonempty, so VΟƒ(Ο‰)(Ο‰)β‰₯cV_{\sigma(\omega)}(\omega)\ge c as just shown, and the nondecreasing path gives Vq(Ο‰)β‰₯cV_q(\omega)\ge c. Hence {σ≀q}={Vqβ‰₯c}∈Gq\{\sigma\le q\}=\{V_q\ge c\}\in\mathcal{G}_q; for q∈[0,t0)q\in[0,t_0): {σ≀q}=βˆ…βˆˆGq\{\sigma\le q\}=\emptyset\in\mathcal{G}_q; and {σ≀T}=Ω∈GT\{\sigma\le T\}=\Omega\in\mathcal{G}_T. So Οƒ\sigma is a stopping time of (Gt)t∈[0,T](\mathcal{G}_t)_{t\in[0,T]}, hence of (Ftsys)t∈[0,T](\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} since GqβŠ†Fqsys\mathcal{G}_q\subseteq\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_q for every qq (claim 1 of the progressive lemma). This also proves the two displayed identities of claim 1 and, for later use, the hitting values of claim 3 for ΟƒE\sigma_{\mathcal{E}} and Οƒout\sigma_{\mathrm{out}} (if Οƒ(Ο‰)<T\sigma(\omega)<T the hitting set is nonempty, so VΟƒ(Ο‰)(Ο‰)β‰₯cV_{\sigma(\omega)}(\omega)\ge c).

The deviation clock. Let q∈[t0,T)q\in[t_0,T) and put Dq=([t0,q]∩Q)βˆͺ{t0,q}D_q=\bigl([t_0,q]\cap\mathbb{Q}\bigr)\cup\{t_0,q\}, a countable set: subsets of the countable set of rationals are countable and adjoining finitely many points preserves countability (countability of the rationals and the basic countability lemma). We claim

{ΟƒY≀q}={Ο‰:Β thereΒ isΒ t∈[t0,q]Β withΒ Yt(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1}={Ο‰:Β sup⁑t∈DqYt(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1}.\{\sigma_Y\le q\}=\bigl\{\omega:\ \text{there is }t\in[t_0,q]\text{ with }Y_t(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1\bigr\}=\Bigl\{\omega:\ \sup_{t\in D_q}Y_t(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1\Bigr\}.

First equality: if there is such a tt, then t∈HYt0(Ο‰)t\in H^{t_0}_Y(\omega) and ΟƒY(Ο‰)≀t≀q\sigma_Y(\omega)\le t\le q; conversely if ΟƒY(Ο‰)≀q<T\sigma_Y(\omega)\le q<T then HYt0(Ο‰)β‰ βˆ…H^{t_0}_Y(\omega)\neq\emptyset, and YΟƒY(Ο‰)(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1Y_{\sigma_Y(\omega)}(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1 β€” shown as follows, which also proves claim 3 for ΟƒY\sigma_Y: every s∈[t0,ΟƒY(Ο‰))s\in[t_0,\sigma_Y(\omega)) has sβˆ‰HYt0(Ο‰)s\notin H^{t_0}_Y(\omega), so Ys(Ο‰)<Ξ΅1Y_s(\omega)<\varepsilon_1; if one had YΟƒY(Ο‰)(Ο‰)<Ξ΅1Y_{\sigma_Y(\omega)}(\omega)<\varepsilon_1 then, by continuity of the path of YY at ΟƒY(Ο‰)\sigma_Y(\omega) (F2) and this pre-bound, there would be ρ>0\rho>0 with Ys(Ο‰)<Ξ΅1Y_s(\omega)<\varepsilon_1 for every s∈[t0,min⁑(T,ΟƒY(Ο‰)+ρ)]s\in[t_0,\min(T,\sigma_Y(\omega)+\rho)], forcing every element of HYt0(Ο‰)H^{t_0}_Y(\omega) to exceed ΟƒY(Ο‰)+ρ\sigma_Y(\omega)+\rho when ΟƒY(Ο‰)+ρ≀T\sigma_Y(\omega)+\rho\le T (contradicting that ΟƒY(Ο‰)\sigma_Y(\omega) is the greatest lower bound) and forcing HYt0(Ο‰)=βˆ…H^{t_0}_Y(\omega)=\emptyset otherwise (contradicting nonemptiness); so YΟƒY(Ο‰)(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1Y_{\sigma_Y(\omega)}(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1, and t=ΟƒY(Ο‰)∈[t0,q]t=\sigma_Y(\omega)\in[t_0,q] is the required witness. Second equality: if Yt(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1Y_t(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1 for some t∈[t0,q]t\in[t_0,q] then, the restriction of the path to the compact interval [t0,q][t_0,q] being continuous (claim 1 of restriction stability), its supremum over [t0,q][t_0,q] is attained (the extreme value theorem) and is at least Ξ΅1\varepsilon_1; for every Ξ·>0\eta>0 there is, by continuity at the maximiser and density of DqD_q in [t0,q][t_0,q] (density of the rationals, the endpoints belonging to DqD_q), a point r∈Dqr\in D_q with Yr(Ο‰)>sup⁑[t0,q]Y(Ο‰)βˆ’Ξ·Y_r(\omega)>\sup_{[t_0,q]}Y(\omega)-\eta, so sup⁑DqY(Ο‰)=sup⁑[t0,q]Y(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1\sup_{D_q}Y(\omega)=\sup_{[t_0,q]}Y(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1. Conversely, if sup⁑DqY(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1\sup_{D_q}Y(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1 then, the supremum over [t0,q][t_0,q] being attained and at least as large, there is t∈[t0,q]t\in[t_0,q] with Yt(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1Y_t(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1. Now each YtY_t with t∈Dqt\in D_q is Gq\mathcal{G}_q-measurable (F2 and GtβŠ†Gq\mathcal{G}_t\subseteq\mathcal{G}_q), so the countable supremum is Gq\mathcal{G}_q-measurable by claim 1 of the measurable limits toolkit, applied to an enumeration of DqD_q (repeating terms if necessary) with the uniform bound KYK_Y of (F2); hence {ΟƒY≀q}∈Gq\{\sigma_Y\le q\}\in\mathcal{G}_q. For q<t0q<t_0, {ΟƒY≀q}=βˆ…\{\sigma_Y\le q\}=\emptyset, and {ΟƒY≀T}=Ξ©\{\sigma_Y\le T\}=\Omega. So ΟƒY\sigma_Y is a stopping time of both filtrations, as above.

Finally Οƒβˆ—\sigma^* is a stopping time of both filtrations by claim 1 of the stopping-time toolkit, applied twice, and {t<Οƒβˆ—}=Ξ©βˆ–{Οƒβˆ—β‰€t}∈Gt\{t<\sigma^*\}=\Omega\setminus\{\sigma^*\le t\}\in\mathcal{G}_t.

Claim 2. Pre-bounds: let t∈[t0,T]t\in[t_0,T] with t<Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)t<\sigma^*(\omega). If Yt(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅1Y_t(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1 then t∈HYt0(Ο‰)t\in H^{t_0}_Y(\omega) and ΟƒY(Ο‰)≀t\sigma_Y(\omega)\le t, a contradiction; the other two are identical. Stopped bounds: put u=min⁑(t,Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰))∈[t0,T]u=\min(t,\sigma^*(\omega))\in[t_0,T] (note Οƒβˆ—β‰₯t0\sigma^*\ge t_0 and tβ‰₯t0t\ge t_0). For the Lipschitz clocks: if u<ΟƒE(Ο‰)u<\sigma_{\mathcal{E}}(\omega) then Euβˆ’Et0<cE\mathcal{E}_u-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}<c_{\mathcal{E}} by the pre-bound (valid with ΟƒE\sigma_{\mathcal{E}} in place of Οƒβˆ—\sigma^* by the same one-line argument); if u=ΟƒE(Ο‰)u=\sigma_{\mathcal{E}}(\omega), the argument of claim 2 of the extended lemma for the stopped bound applies to the nondecreasing LL-Lipschitz path VV started at Vt0=0V_{t_0}=0: either u=t0u=t_0 and Vu=0<cEV_u=0<c_{\mathcal{E}}, or u>t0u>t_0 and assuming Vu>cEV_u>c_{\mathcal{E}} with Ξ·=(Vuβˆ’cE)/2>0\eta=(V_u-c_{\mathcal{E}})/2>0 one has Ξ·<Vu≀L(uβˆ’t0)\eta<V_u\le L(u-t_0), hence (when L>0L>0) s=uβˆ’Ξ·/L∈(t0,u)s=u-\eta/L\in(t_0,u) satisfies Vs<cEV_s<c_{\mathcal{E}} and Vu≀Vs+Ξ·<cE+Ξ·=Vuβˆ’Ξ·V_u\le V_s+\eta<c_{\mathcal{E}}+\eta=V_u-\eta, a contradiction (when L=0L=0, V≑0V\equiv0); so Vu≀cEV_u\le c_{\mathcal{E}}. The same argument with L=1L=1 gives Ouβˆ’Ot0≀θout\mathcal{O}_u-\mathcal{O}_{t_0}\le\theta_{\mathrm{out}}. For YY: assume Yt0(Ο‰)<Ξ΅1Y_{t_0}(\omega)<\varepsilon_1; if u<ΟƒY(Ο‰)u<\sigma_Y(\omega) then Yu(Ο‰)<Ξ΅1Y_u(\omega)<\varepsilon_1 (pre-bound); if u=ΟƒY(Ο‰)=t0u=\sigma_Y(\omega)=t_0 then Yu(Ο‰)=Yt0(Ο‰)<Ξ΅1Y_u(\omega)=Y_{t_0}(\omega)<\varepsilon_1; if u=ΟƒY(Ο‰)>t0u=\sigma_Y(\omega)>t_0 then Ys(Ο‰)<Ξ΅1Y_s(\omega)<\varepsilon_1 for all s∈[t0,u)s\in[t_0,u) and, were Yu(Ο‰)>Ξ΅1Y_u(\omega)>\varepsilon_1, continuity at uu would produce s∈[t0,u)s\in[t_0,u) with Ys(Ο‰)>Ξ΅1Y_s(\omega)>\varepsilon_1; so Yu(Ο‰)≀Ρ1Y_u(\omega)\le\varepsilon_1. The increment comparison Ξ΄2(Otβˆ’Ot0)≀Etβˆ’Et0\delta^2(\mathcal{O}_t-\mathcal{O}_{t_0})\le\mathcal{E}_t-\mathcal{E}_{t_0} is (F1).

Claim 3. Proved within claim 1.

Claim 4. For every Ο‰\omega the path of the realized flow satisfies, by claim 2 of the flow stability lemma and claim 1 of the existence and uniqueness theorem applied to x0x_0 and the admissible representative s↦α^(s,Ο‰)s\mapsto\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega) (claim 3 of the realized-control lemma) β€” the flow taking values in Ξ”l\Delta^l by those same claims β€” together with claim 6 of the affine-rate lemma (b^=b\hat{b}=b on Ξ”l\Delta^l):

Ξ¦tΞ³(Ο‰)=x0Ξ³+∫[0,t]bΞ³(Ξ¦s(Ο‰),Ξ±^(s,Ο‰))ds,Stβˆ—Ξ³=x0Ξ³+∫[0,t]bΞ³(Ssβˆ—,As) ds.\Phi^\gamma_t(\omega)=x^\gamma_0+\int_{[0,t]}b^\gamma\bigl(\Phi_s(\omega),\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega)\bigr)ds,\qquad S^{*\gamma}_t=x^\gamma_0+\int_{[0,t]}b^\gamma(S^*_s,A_s)\,ds .

Fix Ο‰\omega and write vsΞ³=bΞ³(Ξ¦s(Ο‰),Ξ±^(s,Ο‰))βˆ’bΞ³(Ssβˆ—,As)v^\gamma_s=b^\gamma(\Phi_s(\omega),\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega))-b^\gamma(S^*_s,A_s), a bounded measurable function of ss: bounded by 4l(lβˆ’1)B4\sqrt{l}(l-1)B by claim 4 of the affine-rate lemma, and measurable by measurability of continuous functions of measurable maps β€” the path components of Ξ±^(β‹…,Ο‰)\hat{\alpha}(\cdot,\omega) are measurable (claim 3 of the realized-control lemma), Ξ¦(Ο‰)\Phi(\omega) and Sβˆ—S^* have continuous hence measurable components, and bb is sequentially continuous on Ξ”lΓ—A\Delta^l\times\mathcal{A}, since ∣b(Ξ£,Ξ±)βˆ’b(Ξ£β€²,Ξ±β€²)βˆ£β‰€Ξ›bβˆ£Ξ£βˆ’Ξ£β€²βˆ£+K2βˆ£Ξ±βˆ’Ξ±β€²βˆ£|b(\Sigma,\alpha)-b(\Sigma',\alpha')|\le\Lambda_b|\Sigma-\Sigma'|+K_2|\alpha-\alpha'| by claim 4 of the affine-rate lemma and the triangle inequality. By (F3), for t∈[t0,T]t\in[t_0,T] and each Ξ³\gamma,

Ξ¦tΞ³(Ο‰)βˆ’Stβˆ—Ξ³=(Ξ¦t0Ξ³(Ο‰)βˆ’St0βˆ—Ξ³)+∫[0,T]1(t0,t](s) vsγ ds.\Phi^\gamma_t(\omega)-S^{*\gamma}_t=\bigl(\Phi^\gamma_{t_0}(\omega)-S^{*\gamma}_{t_0}\bigr)+\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]}(s)\,v^\gamma_s\,ds .

Introduce the β„“1\ell^1-deviation Yβ€Ύs(1)(Ο‰)=βˆ‘Ξ³=1l∣ΦsΞ³(Ο‰)βˆ’Ssβˆ—Ξ³βˆ£\overline{Y}^{(1)}_s(\omega)=\sum_{\gamma=1}^l|\Phi^\gamma_s(\omega)-S^{*\gamma}_s|; its path is continuous, hence measurable in ss (claim 4 of the measurable limits toolkit), and bounded by ll, each coordinate of Ξ¦s\Phi_s and of Ssβˆ—S^*_s lying in [0,1][0,1]. The elementary inequalities (βˆ‘Ξ³βˆ£xγ∣)2β‰₯βˆ‘Ξ³xΞ³2\bigl(\sum_\gamma|x_\gamma|\bigr)^2\ge\sum_\gamma x_\gamma^2 and (βˆ‘Ξ³βˆ£xγ∣)2≀lβˆ‘Ξ³xΞ³2\bigl(\sum_\gamma|x_\gamma|\bigr)^2\le l\sum_\gamma x_\gamma^2 for reals x1,…,xlx_1,\dots,x_l (the latter from summing 2∣xγ∣∣xΞ΄βˆ£β‰€xΞ³2+xΞ΄22|x_\gamma||x_\delta|\le x_\gamma^2+x_\delta^2 over all pairs), applied to xΞ³=Ξ¦sΞ³(Ο‰)βˆ’Ssβˆ—Ξ³x_\gamma=\Phi^\gamma_s(\omega)-S^{*\gamma}_s, give Ys≀Yβ€Ύs(1)≀l YsY_s\le\overline{Y}^{(1)}_s\le\sqrt{l}\,Y_s, the nonnegative square root being nondecreasing. By the β„“1\ell^1-β„“2\ell^2 comparison just recorded (applied to the components of vsv_s), the triangle inequality for the Euclidean norm, and claim 4 of the affine-rate lemma, at every ss,

βˆ‘Ξ³=1l∣vsΞ³βˆ£β‰€lβ€‰βˆ£vsβˆ£β‰€l (∣b(Ξ¦s,Ξ±^s)βˆ’b(Ssβˆ—,Ξ±^s)∣+∣b(Ssβˆ—,Ξ±^s)βˆ’b(Ssβˆ—,As)∣)≀l Λb Ys+l K2β€²β€‰βˆ£Ξ±^(s,Ο‰)βˆ’As∣,\sum_{\gamma=1}^l|v^\gamma_s|\le\sqrt{l}\,|v_s|\le\sqrt{l}\,\Bigl(\bigl|b(\Phi_s,\hat{\alpha}_s)-b(S^*_s,\hat{\alpha}_s)\bigr|+\bigl|b(S^*_s,\hat{\alpha}_s)-b(S^*_s,A_s)\bigr|\Bigr)\le\sqrt{l}\,\Lambda_b\,Y_s+\sqrt{l}\,K_2'\,\bigl|\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega)-A_s\bigr| ,

where K2β€²=2l (lβˆ’1)K1=K2K_2'=2\sqrt{l}\,(l-1)K_1=K_2 is the control-Lipschitz constant of that claim. Hence, using Ys≀Yβ€Ύs(1)Y_s\le\overline{Y}^{(1)}_s, the scalar bound ∣∫h dsβˆ£β‰€βˆ«βˆ£hβˆ£β€‰ds|\int h\,ds|\le\int|h|\,ds for each component (from Β±hβ‰€βˆ£h∣\pm h\le|h| and linearity and monotonicity of the integral), and summing over Ξ³\gamma: for t∈[t0,T]t\in[t_0,T],

Yβ€Ύt(1)≀Yβ€Ύt0(1)+l K2 Jtt0(Ο‰)+l Λb∫[0,T]1(t0,t](s) Yβ€Ύs(1) ds,Jtt0(Ο‰)=∫[0,T]1(t0,t](s)∣α^(s,Ο‰)βˆ’As∣ds.\overline{Y}^{(1)}_t\le\overline{Y}^{(1)}_{t_0}+\sqrt{l}\,K_2\,J^{t_0}_t(\omega)+\sqrt{l}\,\Lambda_b\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]}(s)\,\overline{Y}^{(1)}_s\,ds,\qquad J^{t_0}_t(\omega)=\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t]}(s)\bigl|\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega)-A_s\bigr|ds .

Fix tβˆ—βˆˆ[t0,T]t^*\in[t_0,T] and define w:[0,T]β†’[0,∞)w:[0,T]\to[0,\infty) by ws=Yβ€Ύt0(1)w_s=\overline{Y}^{(1)}_{t_0} for s<t0s<t_0 and ws=Yβ€Ύs(1)w_s=\overline{Y}^{(1)}_s for sβ‰₯t0s\ge t_0; then w=Yβ€Ύt0(1)1[0,t0)+Yβ€Ύ(1)1[t0,T]w=\overline{Y}^{(1)}_{t_0}\mathbf{1}_{[0,t_0)}+\overline{Y}^{(1)}\mathbf{1}_{[t_0,T]} is bounded by ll and measurable, as a sum of products of measurable functions with indicators of Borel sets (measurability of continuous functions of measurable maps). Put a=Yβ€Ύt0(1)+lK2Jtβˆ—t0(Ο‰)a=\overline{Y}^{(1)}_{t_0}+\sqrt{l}K_2J^{t_0}_{t^*}(\omega). For s<t0s<t_0, ws≀aw_s\le a; for s∈[t0,tβˆ—]s\in[t_0,t^*], the display above and Jst0≀Jtβˆ—t0J^{t_0}_s\le J^{t_0}_{t^*} (monotonicity of the integral in the indicator), together with ∫1(t0,s]Yβ€Ύ(1)β‰€βˆ«[0,s]w\int\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,s]}\overline{Y}^{(1)}\le\int_{[0,s]}w (wβ‰₯0w\ge0 and w=Yβ€Ύ(1)w=\overline{Y}^{(1)} on (t0,s](t_0,s], using claim 2 of the toolkit), give ws≀a+lΞ›b∫[0,s]wr drw_s\le a+\sqrt{l}\Lambda_b\int_{[0,s]}w_r\,dr. Hence, for every s∈[0,tβˆ—]s\in[0,t^*], ws≀a+lΞ›b∫[0,s]ww_s\le a+\sqrt{l}\Lambda_b\int_{[0,s]}w. If tβˆ—>0t^*>0, apply Gronwall's lemma for bounded measurable functions with horizon tβˆ—t^* (in place of its TT) to the restriction of ww to [0,tβˆ—][0,t^*], which is bounded and measurable with respect to the trace Borel Οƒ\sigma-algebra on [0,tβˆ—][0,t^*]; this yields wtβˆ—β‰€a elΞ›btβˆ—β‰€a elΞ›bTw_{t^*}\le a\,e^{\sqrt{l}\Lambda_bt^*}\le a\,e^{\sqrt{l}\Lambda_bT}. If tβˆ—=0t^*=0 (so t0=0t_0=0), then wtβˆ—=Yβ€Ύt0(1)≀a≀a elΞ›bTw_{t^*}=\overline{Y}^{(1)}_{t_0}\le a\le a\,e^{\sqrt{l}\Lambda_bT} directly, the exponential being at least 11. Therefore

Ytβˆ—(Ο‰)≀Yβ€Ύtβˆ—(1)(Ο‰)≀elΞ›bT(l Yt0(Ο‰)+l K2Jtβˆ—t0(Ο‰))=Ca(Yt0(Ο‰)+K2Jtβˆ—t0(Ο‰)).Y_{t^*}(\omega)\le\overline{Y}^{(1)}_{t^*}(\omega)\le e^{\sqrt{l}\Lambda_bT}\Bigl(\sqrt{l}\,Y_{t_0}(\omega)+\sqrt{l}\,K_2J^{t_0}_{t^*}(\omega)\Bigr)=C_a\Bigl(Y_{t_0}(\omega)+K_2J^{t_0}_{t^*}(\omega)\Bigr).

Finally, by claim 4 of the toolkit applied on the interval [t0,tβˆ—][t_0,t^*] (with g=1g=1) to the restriction of sβ†¦βˆ£Ξ±^(s,Ο‰)βˆ’As∣s\mapsto|\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega)-A_s|, and by (F3),

(Jtβˆ—t0(Ο‰))2≀(tβˆ—βˆ’t0)∫[t0,tβˆ—]∣α^(s,Ο‰)βˆ’As∣2ds=(tβˆ—βˆ’t0)(Etβˆ—(Ο‰)βˆ’Et0(Ο‰)),\bigl(J^{t_0}_{t^*}(\omega)\bigr)^2\le(t^*-t_0)\int_{[t_0,t^*]}\bigl|\hat{\alpha}(s,\omega)-A_s\bigr|^2ds=(t^*-t_0)\bigl(\mathcal{E}_{t^*}(\omega)-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}(\omega)\bigr),

(the case tβˆ—=t0t^*=t_0 being trivial with J=0J=0). Here the identifications between the integrals of (F3), which carry the indicator 1(t0,tβˆ—]\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t^*]}, and the integrals over the closed interval [t0,tβˆ—][t_0,t^*] used by claim 4 of the toolkit hold because the integrands differ only at the single point t0t_0: 1(t0,tβˆ—]h\mathbf{1}_{(t_0,t^*]}h and 1[t0,tβˆ—]h\mathbf{1}_{[t_0,t^*]}h agree off {t0}=[t0,t0]\{t_0\}=[t_0,t_0], which is Ξ»\lambda-null (the Lebesgue measure theorem), so their integrals over [0,T][0,T] agree by claim 2 of the null-set integral lemma, and the latter equals the integral of the restriction over [t0,tβˆ—][t_0,t^*] by claim 2 of the toolkit (zero extension). This gives the asserted bound, the square root being nondecreasing and multiplicative.

Claim 5. Each entry of mbβˆ—m^*_b is positive, so mbβˆ—>0m^*_b>0. The family E\mathcal{E} is progressively measurable with respect to (Gt)t∈[0,T](\mathcal{G}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} (claim 5 of the progressive lemma) and Οƒβˆ—\sigma^* is a G\mathcal{G}-stopping time (claim 1), so ω↦EΟƒβˆ—(Ο‰)(Ο‰)\omega\mapsto\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*(\omega)}(\omega) is a random variable by claim 4 of the stopping-time toolkit, and so is EΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Et0\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}; its values lie in [0,4R2T][0,4R^2T] by (F1).

Let Ο‰\omega satisfy Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)<T\sigma^*(\omega)<T and Yt0(Ο‰)≀Ρ1/(2Ca)Y_{t_0}(\omega)\le\varepsilon_1/(2C_a). The minimum Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)\sigma^*(\omega) equals one of the three clocks. If Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)=ΟƒE(Ο‰)<T\sigma^*(\omega)=\sigma_{\mathcal{E}}(\omega)<T: by claim 3, EΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Et0β‰₯cEβ‰₯mbβˆ—\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}\ge c_{\mathcal{E}}\ge m^*_b. If Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)=Οƒout(Ο‰)<T\sigma^*(\omega)=\sigma_{\mathrm{out}}(\omega)<T: by claim 3 and (F1), EΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Et0β‰₯Ξ΄2(OΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Ot0)β‰₯Ξ΄2ΞΈoutβ‰₯mbβˆ—\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}\ge\delta^2(\mathcal{O}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{O}_{t_0})\ge\delta^2\theta_{\mathrm{out}}\ge m^*_b. If Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)=ΟƒY(Ο‰)<T\sigma^*(\omega)=\sigma_Y(\omega)<T: by claim 3 and claim 4 at t=ΟƒY(Ο‰)t=\sigma_Y(\omega),

Ξ΅1≀YΟƒY(Ο‰)(Ο‰)≀Ca Yt0(Ο‰)+CaK2T (EΟƒβˆ—(Ο‰)βˆ’Et0(Ο‰))1/2≀Ρ12+CaK2T (EΟƒβˆ—(Ο‰)βˆ’Et0(Ο‰))1/2,\varepsilon_1\le Y_{\sigma_Y(\omega)}(\omega)\le C_a\,Y_{t_0}(\omega)+C_aK_2\sqrt{T}\,\bigl(\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}(\omega)-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}(\omega)\bigr)^{1/2}\le\frac{\varepsilon_1}{2}+C_aK_2\sqrt{T}\,\bigl(\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}(\omega)-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}(\omega)\bigr)^{1/2},

so CaK2T(EΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Et0)1/2β‰₯Ξ΅1/2C_aK_2\sqrt{T}(\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{E}_{t_0})^{1/2}\ge\varepsilon_1/2; if K2=0K_2=0 this is impossible (Ξ΅1>0\varepsilon_1>0), so the case does not occur, and if K2>0K_2>0, squaring gives EΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Et0β‰₯Ξ΅12/(4Ca2K22T)β‰₯mbβˆ—\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}\ge\varepsilon_1^2/(4C_a^2K_2^2T)\ge m^*_b. This proves the inclusion.

Finally, let D∈FD\in\mathcal{F} with DβŠ†{Yt0≀Ρ1/(2Ca)}D\subseteq\{Y_{t_0}\le\varepsilon_1/(2C_a)\} and write X=EΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Et0β‰₯0X=\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}\ge0. By the inclusion, D∩{Οƒβˆ—<T}βŠ†D∩{Xβ‰₯mbβˆ—}D\cap\{\sigma^*<T\}\subseteq D\cap\{X\ge m^*_b\}, and pointwise mbβˆ—β€‰1D∩{Xβ‰₯mbβˆ—}≀1DXm^*_b\,\mathbf{1}_{D\cap\{X\ge m^*_b\}}\le\mathbf{1}_{D}X, so by monotonicity and linearity of the expectation (linearity and monotonicity of the integral) and monotonicity of PP,

P(D∩{Οƒβˆ—<T})≀P(D∩{Xβ‰₯mbβˆ—})≀E[1DX]mbβˆ—.P\bigl(D\cap\{\sigma^*<T\}\bigr)\le P\bigl(D\cap\{X\ge m^*_b\}\bigr)\le\frac{\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}_{D}X\bigr]}{m^*_b}.

Claim 6. Each entry of mbβˆ—,hm^{*,h}_b is positive (h>0h>0), so mbβˆ—,h>0m^{*,h}_b>0. The constant map ω↦t0+h\omega\mapsto t_0+h is a stopping time of (Gt)t∈[0,T](\mathcal{G}_t)_{t\in[0,T]}, since t0+h∈[0,T]t_0+h\in[0,T] (from 0≀t00\le t_0 and h≀Tβˆ’t0h\le T-t_0), and Οƒβˆ—\sigma^* is a stopping time of the same filtration (claim 1); hence Οƒhβˆ—=min⁑(Οƒβˆ—,t0+h)\sigma^*_h=\min(\sigma^*,t_0+h) is a stopping time of (Gt)t∈[0,T](\mathcal{G}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} by claim 1 of the stopping-time toolkit. Exactly as in claim 5 β€” by progressive measurability of E\mathcal{E} (claim 5 of the progressive lemma) and claim 4 of the stopping-time toolkit β€” the function Xh=EΟƒhβˆ—βˆ’Et0X_h=\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*_h}-\mathcal{E}_{t_0} is a random variable; and since t0≀σhβˆ—β‰€t0+ht_0\le\sigma^*_h\le t_0+h pointwise (Οƒβˆ—β‰₯t0\sigma^*\ge t_0 by claim 1), (F1) gives 0≀Xh≀4R2(Οƒhβˆ—βˆ’t0)≀4R2h0\le X_h\le4R^2\bigl(\sigma^*_h-t_0\bigr)\le4R^2h.

Let Ο‰\omega satisfy Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)<t0+h\sigma^*(\omega)<t_0+h and Yt0(Ο‰)≀Ρ1/(2Ca)Y_{t_0}(\omega)\le\varepsilon_1/(2C_a). Then Οƒhβˆ—(Ο‰)=Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)\sigma^*_h(\omega)=\sigma^*(\omega), so Xh(Ο‰)=EΟƒβˆ—(Ο‰)(Ο‰)βˆ’Et0(Ο‰)X_h(\omega)=\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*(\omega)}(\omega)-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}(\omega), and Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)<t0+h≀T\sigma^*(\omega)<t_0+h\le T, so the hitting values of claim 3 are available. The minimum Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)\sigma^*(\omega) equals one of the three clocks. If Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)=ΟƒE(Ο‰)<T\sigma^*(\omega)=\sigma_{\mathcal{E}}(\omega)<T: by claim 3, Xh(Ο‰)β‰₯cEβ‰₯mbβˆ—,hX_h(\omega)\ge c_{\mathcal{E}}\ge m^{*,h}_b. If Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)=Οƒout(Ο‰)<T\sigma^*(\omega)=\sigma_{\mathrm{out}}(\omega)<T: by claim 3 and (F1), Xh(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΄2(OΟƒβˆ—βˆ’Ot0)β‰₯Ξ΄2ΞΈoutβ‰₯mbβˆ—,hX_h(\omega)\ge\delta^2(\mathcal{O}_{\sigma^*}-\mathcal{O}_{t_0})\ge\delta^2\theta_{\mathrm{out}}\ge m^{*,h}_b. If Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)=ΟƒY(Ο‰)<T\sigma^*(\omega)=\sigma_Y(\omega)<T: by claim 3 and claim 4 at t=ΟƒY(Ο‰)t=\sigma_Y(\omega), together with ΟƒY(Ο‰)βˆ’t0=Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)βˆ’t0<h\sigma_Y(\omega)-t_0=\sigma^*(\omega)-t_0<h and the fact that the nonnegative square root is nondecreasing,

Ξ΅1≀YΟƒY(Ο‰)(Ο‰)≀Ca Yt0(Ο‰)+CaK2h (EΟƒβˆ—(Ο‰)(Ο‰)βˆ’Et0(Ο‰))1/2≀Ρ12+CaK2h (Xh(Ο‰))1/2,\varepsilon_1\le Y_{\sigma_Y(\omega)}(\omega)\le C_a\,Y_{t_0}(\omega)+C_aK_2\sqrt{h}\,\bigl(\mathcal{E}_{\sigma^*(\omega)}(\omega)-\mathcal{E}_{t_0}(\omega)\bigr)^{1/2}\le\frac{\varepsilon_1}{2}+C_aK_2\sqrt{h}\,\bigl(X_h(\omega)\bigr)^{1/2},

so CaK2h(Xh(Ο‰))1/2β‰₯Ξ΅1/2C_aK_2\sqrt{h}(X_h(\omega))^{1/2}\ge\varepsilon_1/2; if K2=0K_2=0 this is impossible (Ξ΅1>0\varepsilon_1>0), so the case does not occur, and if K2>0K_2>0, squaring gives Xh(Ο‰)β‰₯Ξ΅12/(4Ca2K22h)β‰₯mbβˆ—,hX_h(\omega)\ge\varepsilon_1^2/(4C_a^2K_2^2h)\ge m^{*,h}_b. This proves the inclusion.

Finally, let D∈FD\in\mathcal{F} with DβŠ†{Yt0≀Ρ1/(2Ca)}D\subseteq\{Y_{t_0}\le\varepsilon_1/(2C_a)\}. The set {Οƒβˆ—<t0+h}\{\sigma^*<t_0+h\} is an event: for every positive integer nn with 1/n≀h1/n\le h one has {Οƒβˆ—β‰€t0+hβˆ’1/n}∈Gt0+hβˆ’1/nβŠ†F\{\sigma^*\le t_0+h-1/n\}\in\mathcal{G}_{t_0+h-1/n}\subseteq\mathcal{F}, Οƒβˆ—\sigma^* being a stopping time (claim 1) and t0+hβˆ’1/n∈[0,T]t_0+h-1/n\in[0,T]; and {Οƒβˆ—<t0+h}\{\sigma^*<t_0+h\} is the union of these sets over such nn: if Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)<t0+h\sigma^*(\omega)<t_0+h then t0+hβˆ’Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)>0t_0+h-\sigma^*(\omega)>0, so by the Archimedean property there is a positive integer nn with 1/n≀t0+hβˆ’Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)1/n\le t_0+h-\sigma^*(\omega), and this nn satisfies 1/n≀h1/n\le h because Οƒβˆ—(Ο‰)β‰₯t0\sigma^*(\omega)\ge t_0 (claim 1); a countable union of events is an event, F\mathcal{F} being a Οƒ\sigma-algebra of the underlying probability space. The same argument with TT in place of t0+ht_0+h and Tβˆ’t0T-t_0 in place of hh shows that the set {Οƒβˆ—<T}\{\sigma^*<T\} of claim 5 is an event (when t0=Tt_0=T it is empty, Οƒβˆ—\sigma^* being [T,T][T,T]-valued). By the inclusion just proved, D∩{Οƒβˆ—<t0+h}βŠ†D∩{Xhβ‰₯mbβˆ—,h}D\cap\{\sigma^*<t_0+h\}\subseteq D\cap\{X_h\ge m^{*,h}_b\}, and pointwise mbβˆ—,h 1D∩{Xhβ‰₯mbβˆ—,h}≀1DXhm^{*,h}_b\,\mathbf{1}_{D\cap\{X_h\ge m^{*,h}_b\}}\le\mathbf{1}_{D}X_h, XhX_h being nonnegative; so by monotonicity and linearity of the expectation (linearity and monotonicity of the integral) and monotonicity of PP,

P(D∩{Οƒβˆ—<t0+h})≀P(D∩{Xhβ‰₯mbβˆ—,h})≀E[1DXh]mbβˆ—,h.β– P\bigl(D\cap\{\sigma^*<t_0+h\}\bigr)\le P\bigl(D\cap\{X_h\ge m^{*,h}_b\}\bigr)\le\frac{\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}_{D}X_h\bigr]}{m^{*,h}_b}. \qquad\blacksquare
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