Reason: Proof of lem:filtering-certificate-bound-2026c: the 2026b proof with the van Trees step of claim 2 re-routed through claim 2 of the mixture-weight van Trees lemma; I_z>0 deduced from alpha.z>0.
Proof
Claim 1. The indicator 1H is G-measurable, because H∈G, and bounded by 1. By claim 1 of the conditional expectation properties lemma, applied finitely many times, c⋅M is a conditional expectation of c⋅X given G. By claim 4 of the same lemma, applied with Z=1H, the random variables 1H(c⋅X) and 1H(c⋅M) are square-integrable and 1H(c⋅M) is a conditional expectation of 1H(c⋅X) given G.
Since 1H2=1H and c⋅X−c⋅M=c⋅ε at every point of Ω,
at every point of Ω. Each of the finitely many products 1Hεγεδ is integrable: each εγ is square-integrable, so each product εγεδ is integrable by the closure properties of the square-integrability definition, and multiplying by the bounded 1H preserves integrability, by the monotonicity of the integral applied to the pointwise bound ∣1Hεγεδ∣≤∣εγεδ∣. Consequently all three expressions have the same expectation; the equality of claim 1 is the equality of the expectations of the first two, obtained from the linearity of the integral.
Claim 2. Write T=1H(c⋅X) and T^=1H(c⋅M), so that by claim 1
E[(T−T^)2]=E[1H(c⋅ε)2].
The random variable T^ is G-measurable and square-integrable, so by (C1) there is a measurable g:Y→R with g(D) square-integrable and T^=g(D)almost surely. Then (T−T^)2=(T−g(D))2 almost surely, and almost surely equal integrable random variables have equal expectations, so
∥T−g(D)∥22=E[(T−g(D))2]=E[1H(c⋅ε)2].
Let G:Y→R be the measurable map furnished by (C3). The difference h=g−G:Y→R is measurable with respect to Y and the Borel σ-algebra, being a difference of two such maps (claim 2 of the arithmetic of measurable functions, applied on the measurable space (Y,Y)), and h(D)=g(D)−G(D) is square-integrable by the closure properties of square-integrability, both g(D) and G(D) being square-integrable. By (C2′) the setting of Score Identities and the Mixture-Weight Directional van Trees Inequality, that is, the setting and the hypotheses (i), (ii), (iii) of The Multivariate van Trees Inequality together with the hypothesis (iv′) of the former lemma, holds for the certificate data, with l there replaced by d, the probability space (Ω,F,P), the data space (Y,Y) with the measure ϱ0 in the roles of (Y,G) and μ there, the random variables Θ1,…,Θd, the map D in the role of D and the function p in the role of the density. The map h is measurable with h(D) square-integrable, so it is admissible as the map m of that lemma. Claim 2 of that lemma, applied with the shifts a1,…,an, the direction u=z, the map m=h and the vector α, gives
∣α⋅z∣≤Iz(h(D)−α⋅Θ2+1≤j≤nmax∣α⋅aj∣),
with Iz∈[0,∞) the mixture-weight information of (C2′). By (C4′), α⋅z>0, so the left-hand side ∣α⋅z∣ equals α⋅z and is strictly positive; hence so is the right-hand side, which forces Iz>0 (for Iz=0 would make the right-hand side 0), and dividing by it,
the last step using ∥−U∥2=∥U∥2, which is immediate from the definition of the mean-square norm. Hence ∥T−g(D)∥2≥ϰ−ϵ, and the right-hand side is nonnegative by the hypothesis ϰ≥ϵ. Squaring an inequality between nonnegative real numbers preserves it, so
E[1H(c⋅ε)2]=∥T−g(D)∥22≥(ϰ−ϵ)2,
which is claim 2.
Independence of the choice of conditional expectations. Any two conditional expectations of Xγ given G are almost surely equal, by the uniqueness part of the existence and uniqueness theorem. Replacing the Mγ therefore changes c⋅ε only on a set of probability zero, which leaves the expectations displayed in claims 1 and 2 unchanged.