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Proof of Convergence of the Optimal N-Agent Value to the Optimal Mean-Field Value and Concentration of Asymptotically Optimal Controls

theoremthm:n-agent-optimal-value-mean-field-limit-2026a
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Reason: First published version. Proves the four claims of the theorem: boundedness of the optimal N-agent values, asymptotic optimality of the open-loop policy built from an optimal mean-field control, convergence of the values to the optimal mean-field value, and convergence to zero in probability of the deviation from the optimal mean-field control set.

Proof

Throughout, N\mathbb{N} is the set of natural numbers, and we use freely the elementary order arithmetic of Elementary Order Arithmetic in an Ordered Field and the properties of the absolute value of Properties of the Absolute Value in an Ordered Field.

Step 0. Four elementary devices.

(a) Eventual lower bounds and the limit inferior. Let (an)nN(a_{n})_{n\in\mathbb{N}} be a bounded sequence of real numbers, let MM be a real number, and let N1NN_{1}\in\mathbb{N} be such that MamM\le a_{m} for every mN1m\ge N_{1}. Then Mlim infnanM\le\liminf_{n}a_{n}.

In the notation of the definition of the limit inferior, write Ak={am:mN, mk}A_{k}=\{a_{m}:m\in\mathbb{N},\ m\ge k\}. The number MM is a lower bound of AN1A_{N_{1}}, so part (ii) of the definition of the greatest lower bound gives MinfAN1M\le\inf A_{N_{1}}. The number infAN1\inf A_{N_{1}} belongs to the set {infAk:kN}\{\inf A_{k}:k\in\mathbb{N}\}, whose least upper bound is by definition lim infnan\liminf_{n}a_{n}; a least upper bound is in particular an upper bound, so infAN1lim infnan\inf A_{N_{1}}\le\liminf_{n}a_{n}. Transitivity of the order gives the assertion.

(b) Removing a doubled epsilon. Let aa and bb be real numbers such that ab+ε+εa\le b+\varepsilon+\varepsilon for every real ε>0\varepsilon>0. Then aba\le b.

Suppose not, so that b<ab<a, and put δ=ab\delta=a-b, a positive real number. By claim 8 of Elementary Order Arithmetic in an Ordered Field the number δ/2\delta/2 is positive and δ/2<δ\delta/2<\delta; applying that claim to δ/2\delta/2 shows that ε=δ/4\varepsilon=\delta/4 is positive and satisfies ε+ε=δ/2\varepsilon+\varepsilon=\delta/2. The hypothesis applied to this ε\varepsilon gives ab+δ/2<b+δ=aa\le b+\delta/2<b+\delta=a, which is impossible.

(c) Changing the policy does not change the law of the initial empirical state. Let NNN\in\mathbb{N} and let two solutions of the controlled NN-agent dynamics on [0,T][0,T] for β\beta, β~\tilde{\beta} and the NN-th driving system be given, for policies in H\mathcal{H}, with regular events Ω0\Omega_{0} and Ω0\Omega_{0}' and empirical state measures Σ\Sigma and Σ\Sigma'. Then Σ0\Sigma_{0} and Σ0\Sigma'_{0} agree at every point of an event of probability 11, and they have the same law as random elements of (Δl,dΔ)(\Delta^{l},d_{\Delta}).

Write ς01,,ς0N\varsigma^{1}_{0},\dots,\varsigma^{N}_{0} for the initial states of the driving system. Condition 1 of the definition of a solution holds at every point of the regular event, so σ0i(ω)=ς0i(ω)\sigma^{i}_{0}(\omega)=\varsigma^{i}_{0}(\omega) for every ii and every ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_{0}, and the same identity holds for the second solution at every ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega'_{0}. The empirical state measure at time 00 is determined by the states at time 00 through the formula recalled in that definition, so Σ0(ω)=Σ0(ω)\Sigma_{0}(\omega)=\Sigma'_{0}(\omega) for every ω\omega in E=Ω0Ω0E=\Omega_{0}\cap\Omega'_{0}, and EFNE\in\mathcal{F}^{N} because a σ\sigma-algebra is closed under finite intersections. Since PN(Ω0)=PN(Ω0)=1P^{N}(\Omega_{0})=P^{N}(\Omega'_{0})=1, claim 3 of the basic properties of a measure gives PN(ΩNΩ0)=PN(ΩNΩ0)=0P^{N}(\Omega^{N}\setminus\Omega_{0})=P^{N}(\Omega^{N}\setminus\Omega'_{0})=0. The complement of EE is the union of those two sets, so claim 4 there (countable subadditivity), applied to the sequence whose first two terms are those sets and all of whose further terms are empty, gives PN(ΩNE)=0P^{N}(\Omega^{N}\setminus E)=0, and claim 3 again gives PN(E)=1P^{N}(E)=1.

Let Γ\Gamma be a Borel set of (Δl,dΔ)(\Delta^{l},d_{\Delta}). Then Σ01(Γ)E=(Σ0)1(Γ)E\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma)\cap E=(\Sigma'_{0})^{-1}(\Gamma)\cap E. The sets Σ01(Γ)E\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma)\cap E and Σ01(Γ)E\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma)\setminus E are disjoint with union Σ01(Γ)\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma), so claim 1 of the basic properties (finite additivity) gives PN(Σ01(Γ))=PN(Σ01(Γ)E)+PN(Σ01(Γ)E)P^{N}(\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma))=P^{N}(\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma)\cap E)+P^{N}(\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma)\setminus E), and the last term vanishes by claim 2 (monotonicity) applied to the inclusion Σ01(Γ)EΩNE\Sigma_{0}^{-1}(\Gamma)\setminus E\subseteq\Omega^{N}\setminus E. The same computation applies to Σ0\Sigma'_{0}, so the two probabilities agree; by the definition of the law, the laws coincide.

Consequently, since (Σ0N)NN(\Sigma^{N}_{0})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges in distribution to YσY_{\sigma}, and convergence in distribution is by definition weak convergence of the laws, the same convergence holds for the empirical state measures at time 00 of any family consisting, for each NN, of a solution for the NN-th driving system and some policy in H\mathcal{H}.

(d) Composites of strictly increasing sequences. If (Nj)jN(N_{j})_{j\in\mathbb{N}} and (jk)kN(j_{k})_{k\in\mathbb{N}} are strictly increasing sequences of natural numbers, then kNjkk\mapsto N_{j_{k}} is strictly increasing: an induction shows that p<qp<q implies Np<NqN_{p}<N_{q}, and jk<jk+1j_{k}<j_{k+1} for every kk.

Step 1. Proof of claim 1. By the preamble, JN\mathcal{J}_{N} is a nonempty set of real numbers of which C(T+1)-C(T+1) is a lower bound, and VN=infJNV_{N}=\inf\mathcal{J}_{N}. Part (ii) of the definition of the greatest lower bound gives C(T+1)VN-C(T+1)\le V_{N}. By part (i) the number VNV_{N} is a lower bound of JN\mathcal{J}_{N}; since hNHh^{N}\in\mathcal{H} we have JN[hN]JNJ^{N}[h^{N}]\in\mathcal{J}_{N}, so VNJN[hN]V_{N}\le J^{N}[h^{N}]. Moreover JN[hN]C(T+1)|J^{N}[h^{N}]|\le C(T+1), so JN[hN]C(T+1)J^{N}[h^{N}]\le C(T+1) by claim 6 of the absolute-value lemma, and VNC(T+1)V_{N}\le C(T+1) by transitivity. From C(T+1)VNC(T+1)-C(T+1)\le V_{N}\le C(T+1) and claim 6 again, VNC(T+1)|V_{N}|\le C(T+1).

Step 2. The open-loop policy is admissible. By claim 1 of the optimal-set structure lemma the set Mσ\mathcal{M}^{*}_{\sigma} is nonempty. Let ξMσ\xi^{*}\in\mathcal{M}^{*}_{\sigma} and let AA^{*} be an admissible representative of ξ\xi^{*}, which exists by claim 2 of the flow stability lemma; thus AtAA^{*}_{t}\in\mathcal{A} for every t[0,T]t\in[0,T], and, being a representative of an element of the Lebesgue space of square-integrable vector-valued functions on [0,T][0,T], the map AA^{*} has components measurable with respect to the trace Borel σ\sigma-algebra on [0,T][0,T] and the Borel σ\sigma-algebra of the real line. Hence the open-loop policy lemma applies, and its claim 1 shows that hAh^{A^{*}} is an observation-driven control policy with horizon TT, control dimension mm and l~\tilde{l} channels. By the formulas defining it in that lemma, every value of hAh^{A^{*}} is of the form AtA^{*}_{t} with t[0,T]t\in[0,T], hence lies in A\mathcal{A}; this is exactly the requirement of the definition of an A\mathcal{A}-valued policy. Therefore hAHh^{A^{*}}\in\mathcal{H}, and in particular JN[hA]J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}] is a real number lying in JN\mathcal{J}_{N} for every NN.

Step 3. The initial states converge in mean square. For ωΩN\omega\in\Omega^{N} put ZN(ω)=Σ0N(ω)σ2Z_{N}(\omega)=|\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega)-\sigma|^{2}.

First, ZNZ_{N} is a random variable. Indeed Σ0N\Sigma^{N}_{0} is a random element of (Δl,dΔ)(\Delta^{l},d_{\Delta}) by claim 5 of the realized-control lemma; the coordinate projections are Borel measurable by claim 1 of the lemma on Borel measurability in Euclidean space, so each component of Σ0N\Sigma^{N}_{0} is measurable by claim 4 (composition) of the Borel toolkit on a metric space; and the map sending xΔlx\in\Delta^{l} to xσ2|x-\sigma|^{2} is sequentially continuous, so the lemma on sequentially continuous functions of measurable Euclidean maps applies.

Second, 0ZN40\le Z_{N}\le4 everywhere: for every ω\omega both Σ0N(ω)\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega) and σ\sigma lie in Δl\Delta^{l}, so they have Euclidean norm at most 11 by claim 1 of the compactness lemma, and claims 5 and 6 of the lemma on the Euclidean norm give Σ0N(ω)σΣ0N(ω)+σ2|\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega)-\sigma|\le|\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega)|+|\sigma|\le2; if 0u20\le u\le2 then uuu222u\cdot u\le u\cdot 2\le 2\cdot 2 by two applications of claim 10 of the order-arithmetic lemma in the nonstrict form obtained by adjoining the case of equality, the multipliers uu and 22 being nonnegative.

Now let ε>0\varepsilon>0 be real and put EN,ε={ωΩN:εdΔ(Σ0N(ω),σ)}E_{N,\varepsilon}=\{\omega\in\Omega^{N}:\varepsilon\le d_{\Delta}(\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega),\sigma)\}. By claims 2 and 3 of the lemma on convergence in distribution to a constant, each EN,εE_{N,\varepsilon} is an event and the sequence (PN(EN,ε))NN(P^{N}(E_{N,\varepsilon}))_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to 00; and dΔ(Σ0N(ω),σ)=Σ0N(ω)σd_{\Delta}(\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega),\sigma)=|\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega)-\sigma|, because dΔd_{\Delta} is the restriction to Δl\Delta^{l} of the Euclidean distance on Rl\mathbb{R}^{l}, as fixed in the compactness lemma, and that distance is expressed through the norm by claim 2 of the norm lemma. Let 1EN,ε\mathbf{1}_{E_{N,\varepsilon}} be the function equal to 11 on EN,εE_{N,\varepsilon} and to 00 elsewhere. For ωEN,ε\omega\in E_{N,\varepsilon} we get ZN(ω)4=41EN,ε(ω)ε2+41EN,ε(ω)Z_{N}(\omega)\le4=4\,\mathbf{1}_{E_{N,\varepsilon}}(\omega)\le\varepsilon^{2}+4\,\mathbf{1}_{E_{N,\varepsilon}}(\omega); for ωEN,ε\omega\notin E_{N,\varepsilon} we get Σ0N(ω)σ<ε|\Sigma^{N}_{0}(\omega)-\sigma|<\varepsilon and hence, by the same two applications of claim 10, ZN(ω)ε2=ε2+41EN,ε(ω)Z_{N}(\omega)\le\varepsilon^{2}=\varepsilon^{2}+4\,\mathbf{1}_{E_{N,\varepsilon}}(\omega). Thus ZNε2+41EN,εZ_{N}\le\varepsilon^{2}+4\,\mathbf{1}_{E_{N,\varepsilon}} at every point of ΩN\Omega^{N}.

Both sides are random variables bounded everywhere, so claim 1 of the lemma on almost sure inequalities between bounded random variables gives EN[ZN]EN[ε21ΩN+41EN,ε]\mathbb{E}^{N}[Z_{N}]\le\mathbb{E}^{N}[\varepsilon^{2}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega^{N}}+4\,\mathbf{1}_{E_{N,\varepsilon}}], and claim 2 of the linearity and monotonicity theorem for the integral together with the lemma on the integral of an indicator function gives

EN[ZN]ε2PN(ΩN)+4PN(EN,ε)=ε2+4PN(EN,ε).\mathbb{E}^{N}[Z_{N}]\le\varepsilon^{2}P^{N}(\Omega^{N})+4P^{N}(E_{N,\varepsilon})=\varepsilon^{2}+4P^{N}(E_{N,\varepsilon}).

Let δ>0\delta>0 be real. Choose ε\varepsilon to be the smaller of 11 and δ/4\delta/4, a positive real number; then ε2εδ/4\varepsilon^{2}\le\varepsilon\le\delta/4, the first inequality by claim 10 in the nonstrict form applied to ε1\varepsilon\le1 with the nonnegative multiplier ε\varepsilon. Choose N1N_{1} with PN(EN,ε)<δ/16P^{N}(E_{N,\varepsilon})<\delta/16 for every NN1N\ge N_{1}. For such NN we get 0EN[ZN]δ/4+δ/4=δ/2<δ0\le\mathbb{E}^{N}[Z_{N}]\le\delta/4+\delta/4=\delta/2<\delta, the lower bound because 0ZN0\le Z_{N} everywhere. As δ>0\delta>0 was arbitrary, (EN[ZN])NN(\mathbb{E}^{N}[Z_{N}])_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to 00.

Step 4. Proof of claim 2. Retain ξ\xi^{*}, AA^{*} and hAh^{A^{*}} from Step 2. By part (ii) of the existence, uniqueness and regularity theorem, for every NN the set of solutions of the controlled NN-agent dynamics on [0,T][0,T] for β\beta, β~\tilde{\beta}, the NN-th driving system and the policy hAh^{A^{*}} is nonempty; these sets all lie in the set of all such solutions for all NN, so Axiom of Countable Choice provides one for every NN. Write ΣA,N\Sigma^{A,N} for the empirical state measure of the chosen solution. By device (c) the maps Σ0A,N\Sigma^{A,N}_{0} and Σ0N\Sigma^{N}_{0} agree at every point of an event of probability 11, so the random variables Σ0A,Nσ2|\Sigma^{A,N}_{0}-\sigma|^{2} and ZNZ_{N} do as well; both are bounded everywhere, so claim 2 of the almost sure expectation lemma gives EN[Σ0A,Nσ2]=EN[ZN]\mathbb{E}^{N}[|\Sigma^{A,N}_{0}-\sigma|^{2}]=\mathbb{E}^{N}[Z_{N}], and by Step 3 this converges to 00.

By claim 2 of the flow stability lemma the mean-field flow S(σ,ξ)S(\sigma,\xi^{*}) is the map furnished by claim 1 of the existence and uniqueness theorem for the generalized mean-field trajectory applied to the initial value σ\sigma and the control AA^{*}; hence (S(σ,ξ),A)(S(\sigma,\xi^{*}),A^{*}) is the generalized mean-field trajectory pair with value σ\sigma at t=0t=0 that appears in the setting of the mean-square tracking proposition. All the data required there are now in place, with S0=σS_{0}=\sigma and with the map AA^{*} and the open-loop policy hAh^{A^{*}} of Step 2. Therefore claim 2 of the corollary on convergence of the NN-agent cost under an open-loop control applies and shows that (JN[hA])NN(J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}])_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to the generalized mean-field cost of that pair. (The cost JN[hA]J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}] has the same value for every solution, as recorded in the definition of the NN-agent cost, so no ambiguity arises from the choice made above.)

Finally, by the definition of the mean-field cost of a control from an initial state, evaluated with the admissible representative AA^{*} of ξ\xi^{*}, that generalized mean-field cost is F(σ,ξ)F(\sigma,\xi^{*}); and F(σ,ξ)=JσF(\sigma,\xi^{*})=J^{*}_{\sigma} because ξMσ\xi^{*}\in\mathcal{M}^{*}_{\sigma}. This proves claim 2.

Step 5. Claim 3: the upper estimate. The sequences (VN)NN(V_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} and (JN[hA])NN(J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}])_{N\in\mathbb{N}} are bounded, both being bounded in absolute value by C(T+1)C(T+1), so that C(T+1)+1C(T+1)+1 is a strictly positive bound as the definition of a bounded sequence requires. For every NN the number JN[hA]J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}] lies in JN\mathcal{J}_{N}, of which VNV_{N} is a lower bound, so VNJN[hA]V_{N}\le J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}]. Claim 2 of the basic properties of the limit inferior and the limit superior therefore gives lim supNVNlim supNJN[hA]\limsup_{N}V_{N}\le\limsup_{N}J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}], while claim 5 there, applied to the sequence (JN[hA])NN(J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}])_{N\in\mathbb{N}}, which converges to JσJ^{*}_{\sigma} by claim 2, gives lim supNJN[hA]=Jσ\limsup_{N}J^{N}[h^{A^{*}}]=J^{*}_{\sigma}. Hence lim supNVNJσ\limsup_{N}V_{N}\le J^{*}_{\sigma}.

Step 6. Claim 3: the lower estimate. Let ε>0\varepsilon>0 be real. Fix NN. By claim 1 of the order-arithmetic lemma VN<VN+εV_{N}<V_{N}+\varepsilon, so VN+εV_{N}+\varepsilon is not a lower bound of JN\mathcal{J}_{N}: otherwise part (ii) of the definition of the greatest lower bound would give VN+εVNV_{N}+\varepsilon\le V_{N}. Hence there is a policy hHh\in\mathcal{H} with JN[h]<VN+εJ^{N}[h]<V_{N}+\varepsilon, and, by part (ii) of the existence theorem, a solution for the NN-th driving system and that policy. The set PN\mathcal{P}_{N} of all pairs consisting of such a policy and such a solution is therefore nonempty, and these sets lie in a common set; so Axiom of Countable Choice provides a pair for every NN. Write h~N\tilde{h}^{N} for the chosen policy and Σ~N\tilde{\Sigma}^{N} for the empirical state measure of the chosen solution, so that JN[h~N]<VN+εJ^{N}[\tilde{h}^{N}]<V_{N}+\varepsilon for every NN.

By device (c) the sequence (Σ~0N)NN(\tilde{\Sigma}^{N}_{0})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges in distribution to YσY_{\sigma}. Hence every hypothesis of the asymptotic lower bound theorem is met by the data consisting of the given driving systems, the policies h~N\tilde{h}^{N} and the chosen solutions, and claim 3 there gives that (JN[h~N])NN(J^{N}[\tilde{h}^{N}])_{N\in\mathbb{N}} is bounded with

Jσlim infNJN[h~N].J^{*}_{\sigma}\le\liminf_{N}J^{N}[\tilde{h}^{N}].

By claim 3 of the basic properties of the limit inferior and the limit superior there is N1NN_{1}\in\mathbb{N} with lim infnJn[h~n]ε<Jm[h~m]\liminf_{n}J^{n}[\tilde{h}^{n}]-\varepsilon<J^{m}[\tilde{h}^{m}] for every mN1m\ge N_{1}. For such mm,

Jσεlim infnJn[h~n]ε<Jm[h~m]<Vm+ε,J^{*}_{\sigma}-\varepsilon\le\liminf_{n}J^{n}[\tilde{h}^{n}]-\varepsilon<J^{m}[\tilde{h}^{m}]<V_{m}+\varepsilon ,

so Jσε<Vm+εJ^{*}_{\sigma}-\varepsilon<V_{m}+\varepsilon and hence, adding ε\varepsilon to both sides by claim 1 of the order-arithmetic lemma, Jσ<Vm+ε+εJ^{*}_{\sigma}<V_{m}+\varepsilon+\varepsilon; in particular JσεεVmJ^{*}_{\sigma}-\varepsilon-\varepsilon\le V_{m} for every mN1m\ge N_{1}. Device (a), applied to the bounded sequence (VN)NN(V_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}}, gives Jσεεlim infNVNJ^{*}_{\sigma}-\varepsilon-\varepsilon\le\liminf_{N}V_{N}, that is, Jσlim infNVN+ε+εJ^{*}_{\sigma}\le\liminf_{N}V_{N}+\varepsilon+\varepsilon. Since ε>0\varepsilon>0 was arbitrary, device (b) gives Jσlim infNVNJ^{*}_{\sigma}\le\liminf_{N}V_{N}.

Step 7. Proof of claim 3. By claim 1 of the basic properties of the limit inferior and the limit superior, lim infNVNlim supNVN\liminf_{N}V_{N}\le\limsup_{N}V_{N}. With Steps 5 and 6 this yields

Jσlim infNVNlim supNVNJσ,J^{*}_{\sigma}\le\liminf_{N}V_{N}\le\limsup_{N}V_{N}\le J^{*}_{\sigma},

so both the limit inferior and the limit superior equal JσJ^{*}_{\sigma}, and claim 5 there shows that (VN)NN(V_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to JσJ^{*}_{\sigma}.

For the second sequence, claim 1 and the hypothesis on (ϵN)NN(\epsilon_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} give 0JN[hN]VNϵN0\le J^{N}[h^{N}]-V_{N}\le\epsilon_{N}, hence JN[hN]VNϵN|J^{N}[h^{N}]-V_{N}|\le\epsilon_{N} by claim 6 of the absolute-value lemma. Claim 5 of that lemma (the triangle inequality) then gives

JN[hN]JσJN[hN]VN+VNJσϵN+VNJσ.\bigl|J^{N}[h^{N}]-J^{*}_{\sigma}\bigr|\le\bigl|J^{N}[h^{N}]-V_{N}\bigr|+\bigl|V_{N}-J^{*}_{\sigma}\bigr|\le\epsilon_{N}+\bigl|V_{N}-J^{*}_{\sigma}\bigr| .

The sequence (VNJσ)NN(|V_{N}-J^{*}_{\sigma}|)_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to 00, directly by the definition of the limit applied to (VN)NN(V_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}}, and (ϵN)NN(\epsilon_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to 00 by hypothesis, so their sum converges to 00 by claim 1 of the arithmetic of limits of real sequences. Claim 3 of the order properties of limits of real sequences now gives that (JN[hN])NN(J^{N}[h^{N}])_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to JσJ^{*}_{\sigma}.

Step 8. Claim 4: measurability. By claim 4 of the optimal-set structure lemma the function DD on XX is sequentially continuous: if (yj)jN(y_{j})_{j\in\mathbb{N}} is a sequence in XX converging to xx in (X,dX)(X,d_{X}), then (D(yj))jN(D(y_{j}))_{j\in\mathbb{N}} converges to D(x)D(x); by claim 3 of the arithmetic of limits, (D(yj))jN(-D(y_{j}))_{j\in\mathbb{N}} converges to D(x)-D(x). Consequently both DD and D-D are lower semicontinuous on XX: given such a sequence and a real ε>0\varepsilon>0, the definition of the limit provides NN with D(yj)D(x)<ε|D(y_{j})-D(x)|<\varepsilon for jNj\ge N, whence D(x)ε<D(yj)D(x)-\varepsilon<D(y_{j}) by claim 6 of the absolute-value lemma, and similarly for D-D; claims 1 and 3 of the sequential characterization of lower semicontinuity, applied with the subset XX of XX, give the assertion.

By claim 5 of the Borel toolkit the function DD is measurable with respect to B(X)\mathcal{B}(X) and the Borel σ\sigma-algebra of the real line. By claim 5 of the realized-control lemma the pair (Σ0N,α^N)(\Sigma^{N}_{0},\hat{\alpha}^{N}) is a random element of (X,dX)(X,d_{X}), that is, measurable with respect to FN\mathcal{F}^{N} and B(X)\mathcal{B}(X). Claim 4 (composition) of the Borel toolkit therefore shows that DND_{N} is measurable, that is, a random variable.

Fix a real ε>0\varepsilon>0 and put Cε={xX:εD(x)}C_{\varepsilon}=\{x\in X:\varepsilon\le D(x)\}. Since Cε={xX:D(x)ε}C_{\varepsilon}=\{x\in X:-D(x)\le-\varepsilon\} and D-D is lower semicontinuous on XX, claim 3 of the lemma on sublevel and superlevel sets, applied with the subset XX of XX, shows that CεC_{\varepsilon} is closed in the topology of open subsets of (X,dX)(X,d_{X}); hence CεB(X)C_{\varepsilon}\in\mathcal{B}(X) by claim 1 of the Borel toolkit. Moreover {ωΩN:εDN(ω)}\{\omega\in\Omega^{N}:\varepsilon\le D_{N}(\omega)\} is the preimage of CεC_{\varepsilon} under (Σ0N,α^N)(\Sigma^{N}_{0},\hat{\alpha}^{N}), so by the definition of the law

aN:=PN({ωΩN:εDN(ω)})=μN(Cε).a_{N}:=P^{N}\bigl(\{\omega\in\Omega^{N}:\varepsilon\le D_{N}(\omega)\}\bigr)=\mu^{N}(C_{\varepsilon}).

Step 9. Claim 4: the limit. Suppose, for a contradiction, that (aN)NN(a_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} does not converge to 00. Since 0aN0\le a_{N} for every NN, negating the definition of the limit provides a real ε0>0\varepsilon_{0}>0 such that for every KNK\in\mathbb{N} there is mKm\ge K with ε0am\varepsilon_{0}\le a_{m}.

Let S={nN:ε0an}S=\{n\in\mathbb{N}:\varepsilon_{0}\le a_{n}\}, which is nonempty by the case K=1K=1, and let RR be the set of pairs (n,n)S×S(n,n')\in S\times S with n<nn<n'. For nSn\in S the case K=n+1K=n+1 provides nSn'\in S with n<nn<n', so (n,n)R(n,n')\in R; thus RR is a binary relation on SS such that every element of SS is related to some element of SS. Let ss be an element of SS, which exists because SS is nonempty. Then Axiom of Dependent Choice, applied to SS, RR and ss, provides a sequence (Nj)jN(N_{j})_{j\in\mathbb{N}} in SS with N1=sN_{1}=s and (Nj,Nj+1)R(N_{j},N_{j+1})\in R, that is Nj<Nj+1N_{j}<N_{j+1}, for every jj. It is strictly increasing and satisfies ε0aNj\varepsilon_{0}\le a_{N_{j}} for every jj.

By claim 1 of the asymptotic lower bound theorem each μN\mu^{N} is a Borel measure on (X,dX)(X,d_{X}) with μN(X)=1\mu^{N}(X)=1, and by claim 4 of the compactness lemma (X,dX)(X,d_{X}) is compact. Hence the weak sequential compactness theorem applies to (μNj)jN(\mu^{N_{j}})_{j\in\mathbb{N}} and provides a strictly increasing sequence (jk)kN(j_{k})_{k\in\mathbb{N}} of natural numbers and a Borel measure μ\mu on (X,dX)(X,d_{X}) with μ(X)=1\mu(X)=1 such that (μNjk)kN(\mu^{N_{j_{k}}})_{k\in\mathbb{N}} converges weakly to μ\mu. By device (d) the sequence (Njk)kN(N_{j_{k}})_{k\in\mathbb{N}} is strictly increasing.

By claim 3 the sequence (JN[hN])NN(J^{N}[h^{N}])_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to JσJ^{*}_{\sigma}, so claim 4 of the asymptotic lower bound theorem applies to the strictly increasing sequence (Njk)kN(N_{j_{k}})_{k\in\mathbb{N}} and to μ\mu: the set Π={σ}×Mσ\Pi=\{\sigma\}\times\mathcal{M}^{*}_{\sigma} belongs to B(X)\mathcal{B}(X) and μ(Π)=1\mu(\Pi)=1.

The sets CεC_{\varepsilon} and Π\Pi are disjoint: for ξMσ\xi^{*}\in\mathcal{M}^{*}_{\sigma} claim 2 of the optimal-set structure lemma gives D(σ,ξ)=0D(\sigma,\xi^{*})=0, and ε0\varepsilon\le0 is false because ε>0\varepsilon>0. Hence CεXΠC_{\varepsilon}\subseteq X\setminus\Pi. Since μ(X)=1\mu(X)=1 is finite, claim 3 of the basic properties of a measure gives μ(XΠ)=μ(X)μ(Π)=0\mu(X\setminus\Pi)=\mu(X)-\mu(\Pi)=0, and claim 2 (monotonicity) gives μ(Cε)0\mu(C_{\varepsilon})\le0; as a measure takes values in [0,][0,\infty], this forces μ(Cε)=0\mu(C_{\varepsilon})=0.

The measures μNjk\mu^{N_{j_{k}}} and μ\mu are probability measures on (X,B(X))(X,\mathcal{B}(X)) and XX is nonempty, so claim 4 of the portmanteau theorem, applied to the closed set CεC_{\varepsilon}, gives

lim supkμNjk(Cε)μ(Cε)=0.\limsup_{k}\mu^{N_{j_{k}}}(C_{\varepsilon})\le\mu(C_{\varepsilon})=0 .

On the other hand ε0aNjk=μNjk(Cε)\varepsilon_{0}\le a_{N_{j_{k}}}=\mu^{N_{j_{k}}}(C_{\varepsilon}) for every kk, and the sequence (μNjk(Cε))kN(\mu^{N_{j_{k}}}(C_{\varepsilon}))_{k\in\mathbb{N}} is bounded, with strictly positive bound 22, because 0μN(Cε)μN(X)=10\le\mu^{N}(C_{\varepsilon})\le\mu^{N}(X)=1 by monotonicity. Hence claim 2 of the basic properties of the limit inferior and the limit superior gives ε0lim infkμNjk(Cε)\varepsilon_{0}\le\liminf_{k}\mu^{N_{j_{k}}}(C_{\varepsilon}), and claim 1 there gives lim infkμNjk(Cε)lim supkμNjk(Cε)\liminf_{k}\mu^{N_{j_{k}}}(C_{\varepsilon})\le\limsup_{k}\mu^{N_{j_{k}}}(C_{\varepsilon}). Combining, ε00\varepsilon_{0}\le0, contradicting ε0>0\varepsilon_{0}>0.

Therefore (aN)NN(a_{N})_{N\in\mathbb{N}} converges to 00, which completes the proof of claim 4 and of the theorem.

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