Proof of Strong Law of Large Numbers under a Fourth Moment Bound
theoremthm:strong-law-large-numbers-fourth-moment-2026aStep 0 (reduction to mean zero). Set . The sequence is independent and identically distributed: translation by is a continuous, hence Borel measurable, map (generator criterion of Measurable Function and Real-Valued Measurable Function), so the defining events are events of the form for Borel , and both the independence product formula and equality of distributions transfer. Moreover , and has finite expectation since expands binomially into powers , , each with finite expectation by hypothesis and linearity (claim 2 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral). Writing , it suffices to prove almost surely.
Step 1 (fourth moment bound). Expanding multinomially and using linearity,
For a term whose index multiset contains an index appearing exactly once, group the remaining three factors into the single random variable (a product of powers of the 's with indices different from ); the pair satisfies the independence hypothesis of Expectation of a Product of Independent Random Variables, since is obtained from the finitely many , , by products and powers, and the events lie in the collection generated by events , , for which the product formula with events of holds by independence of finite subfamilies; integrability of the factors holds by the moment bounds of Step 0. Hence such terms equal . The surviving terms are the diagonal terms and the terms with , each equal to by Expectation of a Product of Independent Random Variables and Step 0 of the proof of Weak Law of Large Numbers (identically distributed variables share moments). Therefore, with ,
Step 2 (Borel–Cantelli). Fix . By Markov's inequality (Markov's and Chebyshev's Inequalities) applied to the nonnegative random variable with threshold ,
and (the partial sums of are bounded, e.g. by , via for ). By the first Borel–Cantelli lemma, for each the event has .
Step 3 (conclusion). Let ; by countable subadditivity of (disjointify and use countable additivity with monotonicity, as in claim 1 of the proof of Existence of Lebesgue Measure on the Real Line for measures generally), . For : for every there are only finitely many with , which is precisely the statement that in the sense of Limit of a Sequence of Real Numbers. Hence the convergence set contains the complement of and has probability : , i.e. , almost surely.
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Prerequisites
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