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Proof of Weighted Compensated Sums over the Observation Events of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics

lemmalem:n-agent-weighted-observation-sums-2026a
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Reason: Proof of the weighted compensated observation-sums lemma via the multiplier identities and interval estimates for the compensated counters, the compensated-martingales lemma, and the counter moment partition technique; includes the N-uniform fourth-moment bound.

Proof

Fix a solution and adopt the notation of the statement. Throughout, Ω0\Omega_0 is the regular event; it has probability 11, so expectations are unchanged when integrands are modified off Ω0\Omega_0, and we use this silently. Let Ξt\Xi_t be the sum of all counters as in part (c) of the multiplier lemma, so that c~tΞt\tilde{c}_t\le\Xi_t pointwise (c~t\tilde{c}_t omits the nonnegative transition counters) and E[Ξtp]<\mathbb{E}[\Xi_t^{\,p}]<\infty for every natural p1p\ge1 by that part. For a real δ>0\delta>0 set

ωF(δ)=sup{FsγυFsγυ: γ{1,,d}, υ{1,,l~}, s,s[0,T], ssδ},\omega_F(\delta)=\sup\big\{|F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s-F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{s'}|:\ \gamma\in\{1,\dots,d\},\ \upsilon\in\{1,\dots,\tilde{l}\},\ s,s'\in[0,T],\ |s-s'|\le\delta\big\},

and likewise ωG\omega_G. Each entry of FF is continuous on the compact interval [0,T][0,T], hence uniformly continuous by the Heine-Cantor theorem, so ωF(δ)0\omega_F(\delta)\to0 as δ0\delta\to0; also ωF2Fˉ\omega_F\le2\bar{F} and ωG2Gˉ\omega_G\le2\bar{G} everywhere.

Step 0: part (a). Work at a fixed ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0 for the pathwise claims. By condition 3 of the solution definition, each observation counter tN~ti,υt\mapsto\tilde{N}^{i,\upsilon}_t and the observation total tc~tt\mapsto\tilde{c}_t agree on [0,T][0,T] with restrictions of counting paths; in particular all are nondecreasing, right-continuous, integer-valued, and vanish at 00 (so J~0F=J0F=0\tilde{J}^F_0=J^F_0=0). As recorded in condition 5, at each jump time τj\tau_j of the observation total exactly one observation counter jumps, its jump is exactly 11, and its channel is υj\upsilon_j. Fix υ\upsilon and consider tΠtυ=iN~ti,υt\mapsto\Pi^\upsilon_t=\sum_i\tilde{N}^{i,\upsilon}_t. Every point of increase of Πυ\Pi^\upsilon is a point of increase of the observation total (the remaining summands of c~\tilde{c} being nondecreasing), hence one of the τj\tau_j; and at τj\tau_j the jump of Πυ\Pi^\upsilon equals 11 if υj=υ\upsilon_j=\upsilon and 00 otherwise. This is the first claim. Consequently, for 0rtT0\le r\le t\le T,

JtF,γJrF,γ=N1/2j:r<τjtFτjγυj,soJtF,γJrF,γFˉN1/2(c~tc~r).(0.1)J^{F,\gamma}_t-J^{F,\gamma}_r=N^{-1/2}\sum_{j:\,r<\tau_j\le t}F^{\gamma\upsilon_j}_{\tau_j}, \qquad\text{so}\qquad |J^{F,\gamma}_t-J^{F,\gamma}_r|\le\bar{F}N^{-1/2}(\tilde{c}_t-\tilde{c}_r). \tag{0.1}

For the compensator identity: by condition 2 of the solution definition, at every ω\omega, A~ti,υ\tilde{A}^{i,\upsilon}_t is the Lebesgue integral over [0,t][0,t] of s1Ω0β~(σsi,υ,Σs)s\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{\beta}(\sigma^i_s,\upsilon,\Sigma_s). On Ω0\Omega_0, pointwise in ss, using the occupation indicators ηsi,σ\eta^{i,\sigma}_s of the derived notation of the solution definition (each agent occupying exactly one state) and the formula of the aggregate observation drift,

i=1Nβ~(σsi,υ,Σs)=σ=1l(i=1Nηsi,σ)β~(σ,υ,Σs)=Nσ=1lΣsσβ~(σ,υ,Σs)=Nb~υ(Σs),\sum_{i=1}^{N}\tilde{\beta}(\sigma^i_s,\upsilon,\Sigma_s)=\sum_{\sigma=1}^{l}\Big(\sum_{i=1}^{N}\eta^{i,\sigma}_s\Big)\tilde{\beta}(\sigma,\upsilon,\Sigma_s)=N\sum_{\sigma=1}^{l}\Sigma^\sigma_s\,\tilde{\beta}(\sigma,\upsilon,\Sigma_s)=N\,\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s),

and summing the integrals over ii (linearity of the Lebesgue integral) gives iA~ti,υ=N[0,t]b~υ(Σs)ds\sum_i\tilde{A}^{i,\upsilon}_t=N\int_{[0,t]}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)\,ds on Ω0\Omega_0. By part (a) of the martingale decomposition theorem, 0b~υ(Σs)B~0\le\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)\le\tilde{B}; and 1Ω0b~υ(Σs)=N1i=1N1Ω0β~(σsi,υ,Σs)\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)=N^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^{N}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{\beta}(\sigma^i_s,\upsilon,\Sigma_s) pointwise in (s,ω)(s,\omega) (both sides equal N1N^{-1} times the displayed identity above when multiplied by 1Ω0\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}, since the identity holds on Ω0\Omega_0, and both sides vanish off Ω0\Omega_0); condition 2 of the solution definition already asserts product-measurability, for the product σ\sigma-algebra of the trace Borel σ\sigma-algebra on [0,T][0,T] and F\mathcal{F}, of each map (s,ω)1Ω0β~(σsi,υ,Σs)(s,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{\beta}(\sigma^i_s,\upsilon,\Sigma_s) (this is exactly what makes A~ti,υ\tilde{A}^{i,\upsilon}_t a well-defined Lebesgue integral for every tt and a random variable, per that condition); summing over ii and dividing by NN, (s,ω)1Ω0b~υ(Σs)(s,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s) is product-measurable, being a finite sum of product-measurable maps. Hence the compensator increment obeys, at every ω\omega and for every γ\gamma,

N1/2υ=1l~[r,t]Fsγυb~υ(Σs)ds  N1/2Fˉl~B~(tr),(0.2)N^{1/2}\Big|\sum_{\upsilon=1}^{\tilde{l}}\int_{[r,t]}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s\,\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)\,ds\Big|\ \le\ N^{1/2}\,\bar{F}\,\tilde{l}\,\tilde{B}\,(t-r),\tag{0.2}

and combining (0.1) and (0.2) gives the stated increment bound for J~F,γ\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma} and the bound JtF,γFˉN1/2c~t|J^{F,\gamma}_t|\le\bar{F}N^{-1/2}\tilde{c}_t (case r=0r=0). Right-continuity on Ω0\Omega_0: the finitely many jump times being isolated, for t[0,T)t\in[0,T) and ttt'\downarrow t the sum in JtF,γJ^{F,\gamma}_{t'} eventually acquires no new terms (c~t=c~t\tilde{c}_{t'}=\tilde{c}_t for tt' below the next jump time, by right-continuity and integrality of the counting path), while the compensator is Lipschitz in tt by (0.2).

Measurability and moments. Each c~s\tilde{c}_s is a finite sum of counters, hence Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s-measurable. For j1j\ge1 define τj\tau_j on all of Ω\Omega as the jj-th jump time of the counting path agreeing with c~\tilde{c} (equal to ++\infty off {c~Tj}\{\tilde{c}_T\ge j\}); then {τjs}={c~sj}Fssys\{\tau_j\le s\}=\{\tilde{c}_s\ge j\}\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s for every s[0,T]s\in[0,T]. By part (iv) of the existence theorem, the observation-event count, the event times, and the channels up to any time tt are measurable for the observation filtration, which is contained in Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t; hence on {τjt}\{\tau_j\le t\} the variables τj\tau_j and υj\upsilon_j are Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable. Writing

JtF,γ=N1/2j11{τjt}υ=1l~1{υj=υ}Fτjγυ(at most c~T nonzero terms),J^{F,\gamma}_t=N^{-1/2}\sum_{j\ge1}\mathbf{1}_{\{\tau_j\le t\}}\sum_{\upsilon=1}^{\tilde{l}}\mathbf{1}_{\{\upsilon_j=\upsilon\}}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{\tau_j}\qquad(\text{at most }\tilde{c}_T\text{ nonzero terms}),

fix n0n\ge0: on {c~T=n}Ftsys\{\tilde{c}_T=n\}\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t the sum has at most nn nonzero terms, indexed by jnj\le n, with {τjt}{c~T=n}Ftsys\{\tau_j\le t\}\cap\{\tilde{c}_T=n\}\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t and {υj=υ}{τjt}{c~T=n}Ftsys\{\upsilon_j=\upsilon\}\cap\{\tau_j\le t\}\cap\{\tilde{c}_T=n\}\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t (both τj\tau_j and υj\upsilon_j being Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable on {τjt}\{\tau_j\le t\}, as just recorded), so JtF,γ1{c~T=n}J^{F,\gamma}_t\,\mathbf{1}_{\{\tilde{c}_T=n\}} is, on {c~T=n}\{\tilde{c}_T=n\}, a finite sum of products of the Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable indicators 1{τjt}\mathbf{1}_{\{\tau_j\le t\}}, 1{υj=υ}\mathbf{1}_{\{\upsilon_j=\upsilon\}} (jnj\le n) with FτjγυF^{\gamma\upsilon}_{\tau_j} (measurable by composition of the continuous entry with the measurable min(τj,T)\min(\tau_j,T)), hence Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable; since the events {c~T=n}\{\tilde{c}_T=n\} (n0n\ge0) partition Ω\Omega, JtF,γ=n01{c~T=n}JtF,γJ^{F,\gamma}_t=\sum_{n\ge0}\mathbf{1}_{\{\tilde{c}_T=n\}}J^{F,\gamma}_t is Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable, this sum having, at each ω\omega, exactly one nonzero summand.

For the compensator: the preceding paragraph shows (s,ω)1Ω0b~υ(Σs)(s,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s) is product-measurable and bounded by B~\tilde{B}; hence (s,ω)υFsγυ1Ω0b~υ(Σs)(s,\omega)\mapsto\sum_{\upsilon}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s) is product-measurable, being a finite sum of products of this map with the continuous (hence Borel-measurable) maps sFsγυs\mapsto F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s, and bounded by Fˉl~B~\bar{F}\tilde{l}\tilde{B}; by Tonelli's theorem applied on [0,T]×[0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times[0,T]\times\Omega to its positive and negative parts, the map (t,ω)N1/2[0,t]υFsγυ1Ω0b~υ(Σs)ds=N1/2[0,T]1{st}υFsγυ1Ω0b~υ(Σs)ds(t,\omega)\mapsto N^{1/2}\int_{[0,t]}\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)\,ds=N^{1/2}\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{\{s\le t\}}\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)\,ds (the integrand (s,t,ω)1{st}υFsγυ1Ω0b~υ(Σs)(s,t,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\{s\le t\}}\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s) being product-measurable, as a product of the Borel-measurable 1{st}\mathbf{1}_{\{s\le t\}} with the map just shown) is product-measurable in (t,ω)(t,\omega), and in particular, for each fixed tt, Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable in ω\omega (the states at times t\le t being adapted by part (iv) of the existence theorem, so the restriction of the integrand to sts\le t only involves Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable data). Hence each J~tF,γ\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_t is a random variable, Ftsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t-measurable, and (t,ω)1Ω0(ω)J~tF,γ(ω)(t,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}(\omega)\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_t(\omega) is product-measurable, being the difference of the product-measurable compensator just constructed and the map (t,ω)1Ω0(ω)JtF,γ(ω)(t,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}(\omega)J^{F,\gamma}_t(\omega), itself product-measurable: for each jj, the set {(t,ω):τj(ω)t}\{(t,\omega):\tau_j(\omega)\le t\} is the preimage of the closed half-plane {(t,x)[0,T]×R:xt}\{(t,x)\in[0,T]\times\mathbb{R}:x\le t\} (closed, hence Borel, in the product) under the map (t,ω)(t,τj(ω))(t,\omega)\mapsto(t,\tau_j(\omega)), product-measurable because (t,ω)t(t,\omega)\mapsto t and (t,ω)τj(ω)(t,\omega)\mapsto\tau_j(\omega) are each measurable (composition with the coordinate projections); so (t,ω)1{τjt}(t,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\{\tau_j\le t\}} is product-measurable, hence so is (t,ω)1{τjt}1{υj=υ}(t,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\{\tau_j\le t\}}\mathbf{1}_{\{\upsilon_j=\upsilon\}} (the second factor not depending on tt), and summing the finitely many nonzero terms on each {c~T=n}×[0,T]×Ω\{\tilde{c}_T=n\}\times[0,T]\times\Omega as above shows (t,ω)JtF,γ(ω)(t,\omega)\mapsto J^{F,\gamma}_t(\omega), and a fortiori 1Ω0JtF,γ\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}J^{F,\gamma}_t, is product-measurable. Finally, at every ω\omega,

J~tF,γFˉ(N1/2c~T1Ω0+N1/2l~B~T)Fˉ(N1/2ΞT+N1/2l~B~T) a.s.,|\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_t|\le\bar{F}\big(N^{-1/2}\tilde{c}_T\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}+N^{1/2}\tilde{l}\tilde{B}T\big)\le\bar{F}\big(N^{-1/2}\Xi_T+N^{1/2}\tilde{l}\tilde{B}T\big)\ \text{a.s.},

and for each natural pp, (x+y)p2p(xp+yp)(x+y)^p\le2^p(x^p+y^p) for x,y0x,y\ge0, so E[J~tF,γp]<\mathbb{E}[|\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_t|^p]<\infty by the moments of ΞT\Xi_T. This proves (a).

Step 1: partitions and the increment decomposition. Fix 0r<tT0\le r<t\le T, a natural n1n\ge1, and set δ=(tr)/n\delta=(t-r)/n, tk=r+kδt_k=r+k\delta (0kn0\le k\le n), Ik=(tk,tk+1]I_k=(t_k,t_{k+1}]. Write ΔkX=Xtk+1Xtk\Delta_kX=X_{t_{k+1}}-X_{t_k} for any process XX, Δkc~=c~tk+1c~tk\Delta_k\tilde{c}=\tilde{c}_{t_{k+1}}-\tilde{c}_{t_k}, and define

SkF,γ=N1/2υ=1l~Ftkγυi=1NΔkM(i,υ),ρkF,γ=ΔkJ~F,γSkF,γ.S^{F,\gamma}_k=N^{-1/2}\sum_{\upsilon=1}^{\tilde{l}}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}\sum_{i=1}^{N}\Delta_kM^{(i,\upsilon)},\qquad \rho^{F,\gamma}_k=\Delta_k\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}-S^{F,\gamma}_k .

On Ω0\Omega_0: by the jump correspondence of Step 0, ΔkJF,γ=N1/2j:τjIkFτjγυj\Delta_kJ^{F,\gamma}=N^{-1/2}\sum_{j:\tau_j\in I_k}F^{\gamma\upsilon_j}_{\tau_j}, while N1/2υFtkγυiΔkN~i,υ=N1/2j:τjIkFtkγυjN^{-1/2}\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}\sum_i\Delta_k\tilde{N}^{i,\upsilon}=N^{-1/2}\sum_{j:\tau_j\in I_k}F^{\gamma\upsilon_j}_{t_k}, and each τjtkδ|\tau_j-t_k|\le\delta for τjIk\tau_j\in I_k; by the compensator identity of Step 0, N1/2υFtkγυiΔkA~i,υ=N1/2υFtkγυIkb~υ(Σs)dsN^{-1/2}\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}\sum_i\Delta_k\tilde{A}^{i,\upsilon}=N^{1/2}\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}\int_{I_k}\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)ds. Hence, with λk=N1/2Δkc~+N1/2l~B~δ\lambda_k=N^{-1/2}\Delta_k\tilde{c}+N^{1/2}\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\delta,

ρkF,γωF(δ)λk,SkF,γFˉλk,ΔkJ~F,γFˉλkon Ω0,(1.1)|\rho^{F,\gamma}_k|\le\omega_F(\delta)\,\lambda_k,\qquad |S^{F,\gamma}_k|\le\bar{F}\,\lambda_k,\qquad |\Delta_k\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}|\le\bar{F}\,\lambda_k\qquad\text{on }\Omega_0,\tag{1.1}

the last by (a). Note k=0n1λk=N1/2(c~tc~r)+N1/2l~B~(tr)\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\lambda_k=N^{-1/2}(\tilde{c}_t-\tilde{c}_r)+N^{1/2}\tilde{l}\tilde{B}(t-r) and, since (x+y)q2q(xq+yq)(x+y)^q\le2^q(x^q+y^q),

k=0n1λkq  2q(Nq/2c~Tq+n(N1/2l~B~δ)q)(q{2,3,4})(1.2)\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\lambda_k^q\ \le\ 2^q\Big(N^{-q/2}\tilde{c}_T^{\,q}+n\,\big(N^{1/2}\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\delta\big)^q\Big)\qquad(q\in\{2,3,4\})\tag{1.2}

on Ω0\Omega_0, using k(Δkc~)q(kΔkc~)q1maxkΔkc~c~Tq\sum_k(\Delta_k\tilde{c})^q\le(\sum_k\Delta_k\tilde{c})^{q-1}\max_k\Delta_k\tilde{c}\le\tilde{c}_T^{\,q} for the first part and nδq=(tr)δq1n\delta^q=(t-r)\delta^{q-1} for the second. All variables λk\lambda_k, c~T\tilde{c}_T, and ΞT\Xi_T have moments of every order (Step 0).

Step 2: part (b). Let ZZ be Frsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_r-measurable and square-integrable. Integrability of Z(J~tF,γJ~rF,γ)Z\,(\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_t-\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_r) holds by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality for the mean-square norm and (a). Telescoping and using the decomposition of Step 1,

E[Z(J~tF,γJ~rF,γ)]=k=0n1E[ZSkF,γ]+k=0n1E[ZρkF,γ].\mathbb{E}\big[Z(\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_t-\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_r)\big]=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\mathbb{E}[Z\,S^{F,\gamma}_k]+\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\mathbb{E}[Z\,\rho^{F,\gamma}_k].

For each kk, ZZ is Ftksys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_{t_k}-measurable (the filtration is increasing) and square-integrable, so E[ZΔkM(i,υ)]=0\mathbb{E}[Z\,\Delta_kM^{(i,\upsilon)}]=0 for every observation clock label by part (a) of the multiplier lemma; by linearity E[ZSkF,γ]=0\mathbb{E}[Z\,S^{F,\gamma}_k]=0. By (1.1) and the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,

kE[ZρkF,γ]ωF(δ)E[Zkλk]ωF(δ)(N1/2E[Zc~T]+N1/2l~B~TE[Z]),\Big|\sum_k\mathbb{E}[Z\rho^{F,\gamma}_k]\Big|\le\omega_F(\delta)\,\mathbb{E}\Big[|Z|\sum_k\lambda_k\Big]\le\omega_F(\delta)\Big(N^{-1/2}\,\mathbb{E}[|Z|\,\tilde{c}_T]+N^{1/2}\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,T\,\mathbb{E}[|Z|]\Big),

which is finite and tends to 00 as nn\to\infty since ωF(δ)0\omega_F(\delta)\to0. The left-hand side does not depend on nn, so it vanishes. Taking Z=1DZ=\mathbf{1}_D with DFrsysD\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_r yields the averaged martingale property of the definition of a square-integrable martingale; adaptedness and square-integrability hold by (a), and J~0F=0\tilde{J}^F_0=0 on Ω0\Omega_0, an event of probability 11. This proves (b).

Step 3: part (c). Let ZZ be Frsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_r-measurable with Z2Z^2 square-integrable; then ZZ is square-integrable (E[Z2]1+E[Z4]\mathbb{E}[Z^2]\le1+\mathbb{E}[Z^4]). Set Xk=J~tkF,γJ~rF,γX_k=\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_{t_k}-\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_r and Yk=J~tkG,δJ~rG,δY_k=\tilde{J}^{G,\delta}_{t_k}-\tilde{J}^{G,\delta}_r, so X0=Y0=0X_0=Y_0=0 and XnX_n, YnY_n are the full increments. All products handled below are integrable: for instance E[ZXY]ZX2Y2\mathbb{E}[|Z\,X\,Y|]\le\Vert ZX\Vert_2\Vert Y\Vert_2 and E[(ZX)2]=E[Z2X2]Z22X22\mathbb{E}[(ZX)^2]=\mathbb{E}[Z^2X^2]\le\Vert Z^2\Vert_2\Vert X^2\Vert_2, finite by hypothesis and (a), with the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. Telescoping,

XnYn=k=0n1(XkΔkY+YkΔkX+ΔkXΔkY),ΔkX=ΔkJ~F,γ, ΔkY=ΔkJ~G,δ.X_nY_n=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\big(X_k\,\Delta_kY+Y_k\,\Delta_kX+\Delta_kX\,\Delta_kY\big),\qquad \Delta_kX=\Delta_k\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma},\ \Delta_kY=\Delta_k\tilde{J}^{G,\delta}.

Multiply by ZZ and take expectations termwise. The multipliers ZXkZX_k and ZYkZY_k are Ftksys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_{t_k}-measurable (by (a)) and square-integrable (as just computed), so E[ZXkΔkY]=0\mathbb{E}[Z\,X_k\,\Delta_kY]=0 and E[ZYkΔkX]=0\mathbb{E}[Z\,Y_k\,\Delta_kX]=0 by part (b) applied on [tk,tk+1][t_k,t_{k+1}]. For the quadratic term, write ΔkX=SkF,γ+ρkF,γ\Delta_kX=S^{F,\gamma}_k+\rho^{F,\gamma}_k and ΔkY=SkG,δ+ρkG,δ\Delta_kY=S^{G,\delta}_k+\rho^{G,\delta}_k. First,

E[ZSkF,γSkG,δ]=N1(i,υ)(i,υ)FtkγυGtkδυE[ZΔkM(i,υ)ΔkM(i,υ)]=N1(i,υ)FtkγυGtkδυE[ZΔkA~i,υ]\mathbb{E}\big[Z\,S^{F,\gamma}_kS^{G,\delta}_k\big]=N^{-1}\sum_{(i,\upsilon)}\sum_{(i',\upsilon')}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}G^{\delta\upsilon'}_{t_k}\,\mathbb{E}\big[Z\,\Delta_kM^{(i,\upsilon)}\Delta_kM^{(i',\upsilon')}\big]=N^{-1}\sum_{(i,\upsilon)}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}G^{\delta\upsilon}_{t_k}\,\mathbb{E}\big[Z\,\Delta_k\tilde{A}^{i,\upsilon}\big]

by part (b) of the multiplier lemma, whose hypotheses hold: ZZ, ZMtk(i,υ)Z\,M^{(i,\upsilon)}_{t_k}, and ZMtk(i,υ)Z\,M^{(i',\upsilon')}_{t_k} are square-integrable, since E[(ZMtka)2]Z22(Mtka)22<\mathbb{E}[(ZM^a_{t_k})^2]\le\Vert Z^2\Vert_2\Vert(M^a_{t_k})^2\Vert_2<\infty by part (c) of that lemma. By the compensator identity of Step 0 (on Ω0\Omega_0),

N1(i,υ)FtkγυGtkδυΔkA~i,υ=IkυFtkγυGtkδυb~υ(Σs)ds,N^{-1}\sum_{(i,\upsilon)}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}G^{\delta\upsilon}_{t_k}\,\Delta_k\tilde{A}^{i,\upsilon}=\int_{I_k}\sum_{\upsilon}F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k}G^{\delta\upsilon}_{t_k}\,\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)\,ds,

and replacing the frozen weights by the running ones costs, per kk, at most E[Z](ωF(δ)Gˉ+FˉωG(δ))l~B~δ\mathbb{E}[|Z|]\,(\omega_F(\delta)\bar{G}+\bar{F}\omega_G(\delta))\,\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,\delta in absolute value. Second, by (1.1),

E[Z(SkF,γρkG,δ+ρkF,γSkG,δ+ρkF,γρkG,δ)]  (ωF(δ)+ωG(δ))(Fˉ+Gˉ)E[Zλk2].\big|\mathbb{E}\big[Z\big(S^{F,\gamma}_k\rho^{G,\delta}_k+\rho^{F,\gamma}_kS^{G,\delta}_k+\rho^{F,\gamma}_k\rho^{G,\delta}_k\big)\big]\big|\ \le\ \big(\omega_F(\delta)+\omega_G(\delta)\big)\,\big(\bar{F}+\bar{G}\big)\,\mathbb{E}\big[|Z|\,\lambda_k^2\big].

Summing over kk and using (1.2) with q=2q=2 together with the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality (E[Zc~T2]Z2c~T22<\mathbb{E}[|Z|\tilde{c}_T^2]\le\Vert Z\Vert_2\Vert\tilde{c}_T^2\Vert_2<\infty), the total error from both sources is at most

(ωF(δ)+ωG(δ))[(Fˉ+Gˉ)(4N1E[Zc~T2]+4N(l~B~)2TδEZ)+(Gˉ+Fˉ)l~B~TE[Z]]  0(n),\big(\omega_F(\delta)+\omega_G(\delta)\big)\Big[(\bar{F}+\bar{G})\Big(4N^{-1}\mathbb{E}[|Z|\tilde{c}_T^2]+4N(\tilde{l}\tilde{B})^2T\delta\,\mathbb{E}|Z|\Big)+\big(\bar{G}+\bar{F}\big)\tilde{l}\tilde{B}T\,\mathbb{E}[|Z|]\Big]\ \longrightarrow\ 0\qquad(n\to\infty),

since ωF(δ)+ωG(δ)0\omega_F(\delta)+\omega_G(\delta)\to0 and the bracket stays bounded. The main terms add up, by additivity of the Lebesgue integral over adjacent intervals and linearity of the expectation, to E[Z[r,t]υFsγυGsδυb~υ(Σs)ds]\mathbb{E}[Z\int_{[r,t]}\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_sG^{\delta\upsilon}_s\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)ds]. As the left-hand side E[ZXnYn]\mathbb{E}[ZX_nY_n] does not depend on nn, the identity of (c) follows. The recorded special case is the case Z=1Z=1, r=0r=0, rewritten with the diagonal matrix D(Σs)D(\Sigma_s) (the (γ,δ)(\gamma,\delta) entry of FsD(Σs)GsF_sD(\Sigma_s)G_s^{\top} being exactly υFsγυGsδυb~υ(Σs)\sum_\upsilon F^{\gamma\upsilon}_sG^{\delta\upsilon}_s\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s) by the formulas for matrix products and the transpose), and the second-moment bound follows from 0b~υB~0\le\tilde{b}^\upsilon\le\tilde{B} and monotonicity of the integral.

Step 4: part (d). Let ZZ be as in (c). Recall from part (b) of the martingale decomposition that Mtγ=ΣtγΣ0γ[0,t]bγ(Σs,αs)dsM^\gamma_t=\Sigma^\gamma_t-\Sigma^\gamma_0-\int_{[0,t]}b^\gamma(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s)ds, so that MtγMsγ1NΔΞ(s,t]+2(l1)B(ts)|M^\gamma_t-M^\gamma_s|\le\frac{1}{N}\,\Delta\Xi_{(s,t]}+2(l-1)B(t-s) at every ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0 and all sts\le t, where ΔΞ(s,t]=ΞtΞs\Delta\Xi_{(s,t]}=\Xi_t-\Xi_s: indeed each state-transition event changes each Σγ\Sigma^\gamma by at most 1/N1/N (condition 6 of the solution definition), and bγ2(l1)B|b^\gamma|\le2(l-1)B by part (a) of the decomposition theorem. In particular MγM^\gamma is bounded by 2+2(l1)BT2+2(l-1)BT on Ω0\Omega_0. By part (c) of the counter moment lemma, almost surely NMtγ=σ:σγ(MtσγMtγσ)N\,M^\gamma_t=\sum_{\sigma:\sigma\neq\gamma}(\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t-\mathfrak{M}^{\gamma\sigma}_t) for all tt, where Mtσγ=iMti,σγ\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t=\sum_iM^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t is the aggregate compensated counter over the transition clock labels; hence, for any square-integrable Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_{s}-measurable WW and tst\ge s,

E[W(MtγMsγ)]=1Nσγi(E[WΔMi,σγ]E[WΔMi,γσ])=0(4.1)\mathbb{E}\big[W\,(M^\gamma_t-M^\gamma_s)\big]=\frac1N\sum_{\sigma\neq\gamma}\sum_{i}\Big(\mathbb{E}\big[W\Delta M^{i,\sigma\gamma}\big]-\mathbb{E}\big[W\Delta M^{i,\gamma\sigma}\big]\Big)=0\tag{4.1}

by part (a) of the multiplier lemma. Now telescope with Xk=MtkγMrγX_k=M^\gamma_{t_k}-M^\gamma_r and Yk=J~tkF,δJ~rF,δY_k=\tilde{J}^{F,\delta}_{t_k}-\tilde{J}^{F,\delta}_r as in Step 3. The terms E[ZXkΔkY]\mathbb{E}[Z\,X_k\,\Delta_kY] vanish by part (b) with the square-integrable multiplier ZXkZX_k (XkX_k bounded, and Ftksys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_{t_k}-measurable by adaptedness of the martingale MγM^\gamma); the terms E[ZYkΔkX]\mathbb{E}[Z\,Y_k\,\Delta_kX] vanish by (4.1) with W=ZYkW=ZY_k (square-integrable as in Step 3, Ftksys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_{t_k}-measurable by (a)). For the quadratic terms, write ΔkY=SkF,δ+ρkF,δ\Delta_kY=S^{F,\delta}_k+\rho^{F,\delta}_k and expand ΔkX\Delta_kX by the almost sure representation above:

E[ZΔkXSkF,δ]=N3/2σγi(i,υ)Ftkδυ(E[ZΔMi,σγΔM(i,υ)]E[ZΔMi,γσΔM(i,υ)])=0,\mathbb{E}\big[Z\,\Delta_kX\,S^{F,\delta}_k\big]=N^{-3/2}\sum_{\sigma\neq\gamma}\sum_{i}\sum_{(i',\upsilon)}F^{\delta\upsilon}_{t_k}\Big(\mathbb{E}\big[Z\,\Delta M^{i,\sigma\gamma}\Delta M^{(i',\upsilon)}\big]-\mathbb{E}\big[Z\,\Delta M^{i,\gamma\sigma}\Delta M^{(i',\upsilon)}\big]\Big)=0,

since every pair consists of a transition clock label and an observation clock label, which are distinct, so each expectation vanishes by part (b) of the multiplier lemma (hypotheses verified as in Step 3). Finally, by the pathwise bounds and (1.1),

E[ZΔkXρkF,δ]  ωF(δ)E[Z(1NΔkΞ+2(l1)Bδ)λk],\big|\mathbb{E}\big[Z\,\Delta_kX\,\rho^{F,\delta}_k\big]\big|\ \le\ \omega_F(\delta)\,\mathbb{E}\Big[|Z|\Big(\tfrac1N\Delta_k\Xi+2(l-1)B\delta\Big)\lambda_k\Big],

and summing over kk, using Δkc~ΔkΞ\Delta_k\tilde{c}\le\Delta_k\Xi, k(ΔkΞ)2ΞT2\sum_k(\Delta_k\Xi)^2\le\Xi_T^2, kΔkΞΞT\sum_k\Delta_k\Xi\le\Xi_T, nδ2=(tr)δn\delta^2=(t-r)\delta, and the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, the total is at most ωF(δ)\omega_F(\delta) times a finite constant (depending on NN, TT, BB, B~\tilde{B}, l~\tilde{l}, ll, E[Z2]\mathbb{E}[Z^2], and the moments of ΞT\Xi_T, but not on nn), which tends to 00. Since E[ZXnYn]\mathbb{E}[Z\,X_nY_n] does not depend on nn, part (d) follows.

Step 5: part (e). Fix γ\gamma and abbreviate Xs=J~sF,γX_s=\tilde{J}^{F,\gamma}_s. By (c), m2=sup{E[Xs2]:s[0,T]}Fˉ2l~B~Tm_2=\sup\{\mathbb{E}[X_s^2]:s\in[0,T]\}\le\bar{F}^2\tilde{l}\tilde{B}T. Fix t(0,T]t\in(0,T] (the case t=0t=0 is trivial) and partition [0,t][0,t] as in Step 1 with r=0r=0. Telescoping fourth powers and expanding by the binomial theorem,

E[Xt4]=k=0n1(4E[Xtk3ΔkX]+6E[Xtk2(ΔkX)2]+4E[Xtk(ΔkX)3]+E[(ΔkX)4]),\mathbb{E}[X_t^4]=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\Big(4\,\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}^3\Delta_kX]+6\,\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}^2(\Delta_kX)^2]+4\,\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}(\Delta_kX)^3]+\mathbb{E}[(\Delta_kX)^4]\Big),

all terms integrable by (a). We bound the four groups; write O\mathcal{O} for the set of the Nl~N\tilde{l} observation clock labels and fa=Ftkγυf_a=F^{\gamma\upsilon}_{t_k} for a=(i,υ)Oa=(i,\upsilon)\in\mathcal{O}, and let CC_\star be the constant of the multiplier lemma.

Cubic multiplier. E[Xtk3ΔkX]=0\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}^3\Delta_kX]=0 by part (b) with the square-integrable Ftksys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_{t_k}-measurable multiplier Xtk3X_{t_k}^3.

Quadratic multiplier. By part (c) with Z=Xtk2Z=X_{t_k}^2 (its square Xtk4X_{t_k}^4 is square-integrable by (a)) on [tk,tk+1][t_k,t_{k+1}], and 0b~υB~0\le\tilde{b}^\upsilon\le\tilde{B}:

E[Xtk2(ΔkX)2]=E[Xtk2Ikυ(Fsγυ)2b~υ(Σs)ds]Fˉ2l~B~δ  E[Xtk2]Fˉ2l~B~m2δ.\mathbb{E}\big[X_{t_k}^2(\Delta_kX)^2\big]=\mathbb{E}\Big[X_{t_k}^2\int_{I_k}\sum_\upsilon(F^{\gamma\upsilon}_s)^2\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\Sigma_s)ds\Big]\le\bar{F}^2\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,\delta\;\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}^2]\le\bar{F}^2\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,m_2\,\delta .

Linear multiplier. Write ΔkX=Sk+ρk\Delta_kX=S_k+\rho_k with Sk=SkF,γS_k=S^{F,\gamma}_k, ρk=ρkF,γ\rho_k=\rho^{F,\gamma}_k. Then (ΔkX)3=Sk3+(3Sk2ρk+3Skρk2+ρk3)(\Delta_kX)^3=S_k^3+(3S_k^2\rho_k+3S_k\rho_k^2+\rho_k^3), and by (1.1) with ωF2Fˉ\omega_F\le2\bar{F}, 3Sk2ρk+3Skρk2+ρk37(3Fˉ)2ωF(δ)λk3|3S_k^2\rho_k+3S_k\rho_k^2+\rho_k^3|\le7(3\bar{F})^2\,\omega_F(\delta)\,\lambda_k^3. Using (1.2) with q=3q=3 and the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, the total contribution of these remainder terms over all kk is at most ωF(δ)\omega_F(\delta) times a finite constant independent of nn, hence tends to 00. Expand Sk3=N3/2a,b,cOfafbfcΔkMaΔkMbΔkMcS_k^3=N^{-3/2}\sum_{a,b,c\in\mathcal{O}}f_af_bf_c\,\Delta_kM^a\Delta_kM^b\Delta_kM^c. For the triples not all equal, part (f) of the multiplier lemma with the integrable multiplier XtkX_{t_k} bounds each term by CE[Xtk]δ2Cm21/2δ2C_\star\mathbb{E}[|X_{t_k}|]\delta^2\le C_\star m_2^{1/2}\delta^2; there are fewer than (Nl~)3(N\tilde{l})^3 of them, so with the prefactor N3/2Fˉ3N^{-3/2}\bar{F}^3 their total over all kk is at most N3/2l~3Fˉ3Cm21/2tδ0N^{3/2}\tilde{l}^3\bar{F}^3C_\star m_2^{1/2}\,t\,\delta\to0. For the Nl~N\tilde{l} diagonal triples, split E[Xtk(ΔkMa)3]=E[Xtk((ΔkMa)3ΔkAa)]+E[XtkΔkAa]\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}(\Delta_kM^a)^3]=\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}((\Delta_kM^a)^3-\Delta_k A^a)]+\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}\Delta_kA^a] (writing Aa=A~i,υA^a=\tilde{A}^{i,\upsilon} for a=(i,υ)a=(i,\upsilon)): by part (e) of the multiplier lemma with the square-integrable multiplier XtkX_{t_k}, the first expectation is at most C(1+m2)δ3/2C_\star(1+m_2)\delta^{3/2} in absolute value, so these parts total at most N1/2l~Fˉ3C(1+m2)tδ1/20N^{-1/2}\tilde{l}\bar{F}^3C_\star(1+m_2)\,t\,\delta^{1/2}\to0; for the second parts, aOΔkAaNl~B~δ\sum_{a\in\mathcal{O}}\Delta_kA^a\le N\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\delta pathwise on Ω0\Omega_0 (compensator identity and b~υB~\tilde{b}^\upsilon\le\tilde{B}), so

N3/2aOfa3E[XtkΔkAa]N1/2Fˉ3l~B~δ  E[Xtk]Fˉ3l~B~m21/2δ,N^{-3/2}\Big|\sum_{a\in\mathcal{O}}f_a^3\,\mathbb{E}[X_{t_k}\Delta_kA^a]\Big|\le N^{-1/2}\bar{F}^3\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,\delta\;\mathbb{E}[|X_{t_k}|]\le\bar{F}^3\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,m_2^{1/2}\,\delta,

using N1N\ge1 and E[Xtk]m21/2\mathbb{E}[|X_{t_k}|]\le m_2^{1/2} (Cauchy-Schwarz against the constant 11).

Constant multiplier. (ΔkX)4=Sk4+((ΔkX)4Sk4)(\Delta_kX)^4=S_k^4+\big((\Delta_kX)^4-S_k^4\big), and (ΔkX)4Sk415(3Fˉ)3ωF(δ)λk4|(\Delta_kX)^4-S_k^4|\le15(3\bar{F})^3\omega_F(\delta)\lambda_k^4 by (1.1); by (1.2) with q=4q=4 the total of these remainders tends to 00 as before. Expand Sk4=N2a,b,c,dOfafbfcfdΔkMaΔkMbΔkMcΔkMdS_k^4=N^{-2}\sum_{a,b,c,d\in\mathcal{O}}f_af_bf_cf_d\,\Delta_kM^a\Delta_kM^b\Delta_kM^c\Delta_kM^d. Quadruples not all equal: part (f) with Z=1Z=1 bounds each by Cδ2C_\star\delta^2; fewer than (Nl~)4(N\tilde{l})^4 of them, prefactor N2Fˉ4N^{-2}\bar{F}^4, total over kk at most N2l~4Fˉ4Ctδ0N^2\tilde{l}^4\bar{F}^4C_\star t\,\delta\to0. Diagonal quadruples: by part (d) of the multiplier lemma with Z=1Z=1 (bounded by ζ=1\zeta=1) and k=4k=4, E[(ΔkMa)4]E[ΔkAa]+Cδ2\mathbb{E}[(\Delta_kM^a)^4]\le\mathbb{E}[\Delta_kA^a]+C_\star\delta^2, so their total per interval is at most N2Fˉ4(Nl~B~δ+Nl~Cδ2)Fˉ4l~B~δ+Fˉ4l~Cδ2N^{-2}\bar{F}^4(N\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\delta+N\tilde{l}C_\star\delta^2)\le\bar{F}^4\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\delta+\bar{F}^4\tilde{l}C_\star\delta^2 (N1N\ge1), and over all kk at most Fˉ4l~B~t+Fˉ4l~Ctδ\bar{F}^4\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,t+\bar{F}^4\tilde{l}C_\star t\,\delta.

Summation. Summing the surviving bounds over kk (each carries a factor δ\delta and there are n=t/δn=t/\delta intervals) and letting nn\to\infty, the vanishing groups disappear and

E[Xt4]  6Fˉ2l~B~tm2+4Fˉ3l~B~tm21/2+Fˉ4l~B~t.\mathbb{E}[X_t^4]\ \le\ 6\,\bar{F}^2\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,t\,m_2+4\,\bar{F}^3\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,t\,m_2^{1/2}+\bar{F}^4\tilde{l}\tilde{B}\,t .

With y=l~B~Tl~B~ty=\tilde{l}\tilde{B}T\ge\tilde{l}\tilde{B}t and m2Fˉ2ym_2\le\bar{F}^2y, m21/2Fˉy1/2m_2^{1/2}\le\bar{F}y^{1/2}, the right-hand side is at most Fˉ4(6y2+4y3/2+y)\bar{F}^4(6y^2+4y^{3/2}+y). If y1y\ge1 this is at most 11Fˉ4y211\bar{F}^4y^2; if y<1y<1 it is at most 11Fˉ4y11\bar{F}^4y; in either case at most 11Fˉ4(1+y)211(1+Fˉ)4(1+l~B~T)211\bar{F}^4(1+y)^2\le11(1+\bar{F})^4(1+\tilde{l}\tilde{B}T)^2. The constants involved depend only on Fˉ\bar{F}, l~\tilde{l}, B~\tilde{B}, and TT, proving (e). \blacksquare

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