Reason: First version. Proof of the certified filtering bound: the indicator is taken inside the conditional expectation, the optimal estimator is expressed through the data map, and the van Trees bound is combined with the mean-square triangle inequality.
Proof
Claim 1. The indicator 1H is G-measurable, because H∈G, and bounded by 1. By claim 1 of the conditional expectation properties lemma, applied finitely many times, c⋅M is a conditional expectation of c⋅X given G. By claim 4 of the same lemma, applied with Z=1H, the random variables 1H(c⋅X) and 1H(c⋅M) are square-integrable and 1H(c⋅M) is a conditional expectation of 1H(c⋅X) given G.
Since 1H2=1H and c⋅X−c⋅M=c⋅ε at every point of Ω,
at every point of Ω. Each of the finitely many products 1Hεγεδ is integrable: each εγ is square-integrable, so each product εγεδ is integrable by the closure properties of the square-integrability definition, and multiplying by the bounded 1H preserves integrability, by the monotonicity of the integral applied to the pointwise bound ∣1Hεγεδ∣≤∣εγεδ∣. Consequently all three expressions have the same expectation; the equality of claim 1 is the equality of the expectations of the first two, obtained from the linearity of the integral.
Claim 2. Write T=1H(c⋅X) and T^=1H(c⋅M), so that by claim 1
E[(T−T^)2]=E[1H(c⋅ε)2].
The random variable T^ is G-measurable and square-integrable, so by (C1) there is a measurable g:Y→R with g(D) square-integrable and T^=g(D)almost surely. Then (T−T^)2=(T−g(D))2 almost surely, and almost surely equal integrable random variables have equal expectations, so
∥T−g(D)∥22=E[(T−g(D))2]=E[1H(c⋅ε)2].
By (C2) the hypotheses of Directional Form of the Multivariate van Trees Inequality hold for the certificate data, with l there replaced by d, the data space (Y,Y) with the measure ϱ0, the random variables Θ1,…,Θd, the map D, the information matrix I, and the vectors α and z in place of a and z there. Applying that corollary to the function g gives
the last step also using ∥−U∥2=∥U∥2, which is immediate from the definition of the mean-square norm. Hence ∥T−g(D)∥2≥ϰ−ϵ, and the right-hand side is nonnegative by the hypothesis ϰ≥ϵ. Squaring an inequality between nonnegative real numbers preserves it, so
E[1H(c⋅ε)2]=∥T−g(D)∥22≥(ϰ−ϵ)2,
which is claim 2.
Independence of the choice of conditional expectations. Any two conditional expectations of Xγ given G are almost surely equal, by the uniqueness part of the existence and uniqueness theorem. Replacing the Mγ therefore changes c⋅ε only on a set of probability zero, which leaves the expectations displayed in claims 1 and 2 unchanged.