TheoremBase

Proof

Construction. Let Ω={0,1}×{0,1}\Omega=\{0,1\}\times\{0,1\} be the Cartesian product of two copies of {0,1}\{0,1\}, let F\mathcal{F} be the family of all subsets of Ω\Omega, which is a σ\sigma-algebra, and let P(A)P(A) be the number of elements of AA divided by 44. Then PP is a probability measure: P(∅)=0P(\emptyset)=0, P(Ω)=1P(\Omega)=1, and any countable disjoint union of subsets of the four-element set Ω\Omega has only finitely many nonempty terms, so countable additivity reduces to finite additivity of counting. Thus (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) is a probability space. Define, for ω=(ω1,ω2)∈Ω\omega=(\omega_1,\omega_2)\in\Omega,

U(ω)=ω1,V(ω)=ω2,Un(ω)=U(ω)+12n V(ω)(n∈N).U(\omega)=\omega_1,\qquad V(\omega)=\omega_2,\qquad U^n(\omega)=U(\omega)+\tfrac{1}{2n}\,V(\omega)\quad(n\in\mathbb{N}).

Since F\mathcal{F} contains every subset of Ω\Omega, every real-valued function on Ω\Omega is a random variable. Each of UU, VV, UnU^n takes values in [0,2][0,2], so its square is bounded by 44 pointwise and has finite expectation by the monotonicity of the integral in Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral; hence all are square-integrable.

Part (a). For every ω∈Ω\omega\in\Omega and n∈Nn\in\mathbb{N}, ∣Un(ω)−U(ω)∣=12nV(ω)≤12n|U^n(\omega)-U(\omega)|=\frac{1}{2n}V(\omega)\le\frac{1}{2n}, so Un(ω)→U(ω)U^n(\omega)\to U(\omega) for every ω\omega. Moreover (Un−U)2≤14n2(U^n-U)^{2}\le\frac{1}{4n^{2}} pointwise, so by monotonicity of the integral from Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral, ∥Un−U∥2≤12n\lVert U^n-U\rVert_{2}\le\frac{1}{2n}, and this real sequence has limit 00.

Part (b). Fix n∈Nn\in\mathbb{N}. The four points (0,0),(0,1),(1,0),(1,1)(0,0),(0,1),(1,0),(1,1) of Ω\Omega are mapped by UnU^n to the four values 0, 12n, 1, 1+12n0,\ \frac{1}{2n},\ 1,\ 1+\frac{1}{2n}, which are pairwise distinct because 0<12n≤12<10<\frac{1}{2n}\le\frac12<1. For any real cc, the singleton {c}\{c\} is a Borel set, since its complement (−∞,c)∪(c,∞)(-\infty,c)\cup(c,\infty) is open. Hence for each ω∈Ω\omega\in\Omega the preimage (Un)−1({Un(ω)})={ω}(U^n)^{-1}(\{U^n(\omega)\})=\{\omega\} belongs to the generated σ\sigma-algebra σ(Un)\sigma(U^n). Every subset of Ω\Omega is a finite union of singletons, so σ(Un)=F\sigma(U^n)=\mathcal{F}. In particular V−1(B)∈F=σ(Un)V^{-1}(B)\in\mathcal{F}=\sigma(U^n) for every Borel set BB, i.e., VV is σ(Un)\sigma(U^n)-measurable.

Part (c). By Sigma-Algebra Generated by Random Variables and Independence of Sigma-Algebras, σ(U)={U−1(B):B Borel}\sigma(U)=\{U^{-1}(B):B\ \text{Borel}\}. For any Borel set BB, the preimage U−1(B)U^{-1}(B) depends only on which of 0,10,1 lie in BB, so with A0={0}×{0,1}A_0=\{0\}\times\{0,1\} and A1={1}×{0,1}A_1=\{1\}\times\{0,1\} we get σ(U)={∅, A0, A1, Ω}\sigma(U)=\{\emptyset,\ A_0,\ A_1,\ \Omega\}. The set V−1({1})={(0,1),(1,1)}V^{-1}(\{1\})=\{(0,1),(1,1)\} is nonempty, omits (0,0)(0,0) so is not Ω\Omega, contains (1,1)∉A0(1,1)\notin A_0 so is not A0A_0, and contains (0,1)∉A1(0,1)\notin A_1 so is not A1A_1; hence V−1({1})∉σ(U)V^{-1}(\{1\})\notin\sigma(U), and since {1}\{1\} is Borel, VV is not σ(U)\sigma(U)-measurable. The constant sequence Xn=VX^n=V is σ(Un)\sigma(U^n)-measurable for every nn by Part (b), square-integrable, and satisfies ∥Xn−V∥2=0\lVert X^n-V\rVert_{2}=0 for all nn, so it converges in mean square to VV, which is not σ(U)\sigma(U)-measurable.

Part (d). Since VV is σ(Un)\sigma(U^n)-measurable and square-integrable, VV itself satisfies conditions (i)-(iii) of Conditional Expectation of a Square-Integrable Random Variable for the sub-σ\sigma-algebra σ(Un)\sigma(U^n), and by the uniqueness assertion of Existence and Uniqueness of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables every conditional expectation of VV given σ(Un)\sigma(U^n) equals VV almost surely.

Next, σ(V)={∅,B0,B1,Ω}\sigma(V)=\{\emptyset,B_0,B_1,\Omega\} with Bk={0,1}×{k}B_k=\{0,1\}\times\{k\}, by the argument of Part (c) applied to VV. The σ\sigma-algebras σ(V)\sigma(V) and σ(U)\sigma(U) are independent: for the nontrivial pairs, P(Aj∩Bk)=P({(j,k)})=14=P(Aj) P(Bk)P(A_j\cap B_k)=P(\{(j,k)\})=\tfrac14=P(A_j)\,P(B_k) since P(Aj)=P(Bk)=12P(A_j)=P(B_k)=\tfrac12, and pairs involving ∅\emptyset or Ω\Omega are immediate. The expectation of VV is computed from V=1B1V=\mathbf{1}_{B_1} as a simple function: E[V]=P(B1)=12\mathbb{E}[V]=P(B_1)=\tfrac12. By the independence property (property 5 of Basic Properties of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables), the constant random variable 12\tfrac12 is a conditional expectation of VV given σ(U)\sigma(U), and every conditional expectation of VV given σ(U)\sigma(U) equals 12\tfrac12 almost surely by uniqueness.

Now fix nn and let YnY_n be any conditional expectation of VV given σ(Un)\sigma(U^n) and YY any conditional expectation of VV given σ(U)\sigma(U). Then P(Yn−Y=V−12)=1P(Y_n-Y=V-\tfrac12)=1, so ∥(Yn−Y)−(V−12)∥2=0\lVert (Y_n-Y)-(V-\tfrac12)\rVert_{2}=0 by the null-equivalence statement of Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product, and the triangle inequality gives ∥Yn−Y∥2=∥V−12∥2\lVert Y_n-Y\rVert_{2}=\lVert V-\tfrac12\rVert_{2}. Pointwise (V−12)2=14(V-\tfrac12)^{2}=\tfrac14 because VV takes only the values 00 and 11; hence ∥V−12∥22=14\lVert V-\tfrac12\rVert_{2}^{2}=\tfrac14 and ∥Yn−Y∥2=12\lVert Y_n-Y\rVert_{2}=\tfrac12 for every nn, proving the displayed identity in the statement. The constant sequence 12\tfrac12 does not have limit 00, so applying Mean-Square Convergence of Sub-Sigma-Algebras with the square-integrable random variable X=VX=V shows that σ(Un)\sigma(U^n) does not converge in mean square to σ(U)\sigma(U).

The final consequence recorded in the statement combines Parts (a), (c), and (d). ■\blacksquare

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