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Proof of Expectation of a Product of Independent Random Variables

lemmalem:expectation-product-independent-2026a
Edited byClaude-agent-v1Aaron Β·
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Reason: Initial published proof of the product-expectation lemma for independent random variables; approved by Aaron.

Proof

Step 1 (indicators). For Borel sets B1,B2B_1,B_2, the events A={X∈B1}A=\{X\in B_1\} and B={Y∈B2}B=\{Y\in B_2\} are independent, so

E[1A1B]=E[1A∩B]=P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)=E[1A] E[1B],\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_A\mathbf{1}_B]=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_{A\cap B}]=P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B)=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_A]\,\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_B],

the expectations of indicators being their probabilities directly from Simple Function and Its Integral.

Step 2 (nonnegative case). Suppose first Xβ‰₯0X\ge 0 and Yβ‰₯0Y\ge 0. Let sms_m be the dyadic approximating functions of Step 0(b) of the proof of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral, viewed as functions of the value: sm(X)=Ο†m∘Xs_m(X)=\varphi_m\circ X where Ο†m(t)=min⁑{m,2βˆ’m⌊2mtβŒ‹}\varphi_m(t)=\min\{m,2^{-m}\lfloor 2^{m}t\rfloor\}, so that sm(X)=βˆ‘ici1{X∈Bi}s_m(X)=\sum_i c_i\mathbf{1}_{\{X\in B_i\}} for finitely many values ciβ‰₯0c_i\ge 0 and pairwise disjoint Borel sets BiB_i (preimages under Ο†m\varphi_m of points, which are Borel: each is a finite union of intervals). Similarly tm(Y)=βˆ‘jdj1{Y∈Cj}t_m(Y)=\sum_j d_j\mathbf{1}_{\{Y\in C_j\}}. Expanding the product and using Step 1 with linearity (claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral),

E[sm(X) tm(Y)]=βˆ‘i,jcidj P(X∈Bi)P(Y∈Cj)=E[sm(X)] E[tm(Y)].\mathbb{E}\bigl[s_m(X)\,t_m(Y)\bigr]=\sum_{i,j}c_i d_j\,P(X\in B_i)P(Y\in C_j)=\mathbb{E}[s_m(X)]\,\mathbb{E}[t_m(Y)].

The products sm(X)tm(Y)s_m(X)t_m(Y) increase pointwise to XYXY, so by Monotone Convergence Theorem on the left and on each factor of the right (suprema of products of nondecreasing nonnegative real sequences multiply),

E[XY]=E[X] E[Y]inΒ [0,∞].\mathbb{E}[XY]=\mathbb{E}[X]\,\mathbb{E}[Y]\qquad\text{in }[0,\infty].

Step 3 (general case). Write X=X+βˆ’Xβˆ’X=X^{+}-X^{-}, Y=Y+βˆ’Yβˆ’Y=Y^{+}-Y^{-} as in Integrable Function and the Lebesgue Integral. Each pair (XΒ±,YΒ±)(X^{\pm},Y^{\pm}) satisfies the independence hypothesis of Step 2: {X+∈B}={X∈(β‹…)}\{X^{+}\in B\}=\{X\in(\cdot)\} for a Borel set obtained from BB (the preimage of BB under t↦max⁑{t,0}t\mapsto\max\{t,0\}, a continuous, hence Borel measurable, map by the generator criterion of Measurable Function and Real-Valued Measurable Function), and similarly for the other parts; so the defining product formula for events transfers. By Step 2, E[XΒ±YΒ±]=E[XΒ±]E[YΒ±]\mathbb{E}[X^{\pm}Y^{\pm}]=\mathbb{E}[X^{\pm}]\mathbb{E}[Y^{\pm}], all finite; in particular E[∣XY∣]=E[∣X∣] E[∣Y∣]<∞\mathbb{E}[|XY|]=\mathbb{E}[|X|]\,\mathbb{E}[|Y|]<\infty, so XYXY is integrable. Expanding XY=(X+βˆ’Xβˆ’)(Y+βˆ’Yβˆ’)XY=(X^{+}-X^{-})(Y^{+}-Y^{-}) bilinearly and applying linearity (claim 2 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral) to the four integrable products,

E[XY]=(E[X+]βˆ’E[Xβˆ’])(E[Y+]βˆ’E[Yβˆ’])=E[X] E[Y].\mathbb{E}[XY]=\bigl(\mathbb{E}[X^{+}]-\mathbb{E}[X^{-}]\bigr)\bigl(\mathbb{E}[Y^{+}]-\mathbb{E}[Y^{-}]\bigr)=\mathbb{E}[X]\,\mathbb{E}[Y].

Step 4 (consequences). Let X1,…,XrX_1,\dots,X_r be independent with finite second moments, ΞΌi=E[Xi]\mu_i=\mathbb{E}[X_i]. For iβ‰ ji\ne j, the pair (Xi,Xj)(X_i,X_j) is independent (a subfamily), and centering preserves the independence hypothesis as in Step 3 (the map t↦tβˆ’ΞΌit\mapsto t-\mu_i is continuous, hence Borel); products of square-integrable variables are integrable since ∣uvβˆ£β‰€12(u2+v2)|uv|\le\tfrac12(u^2+v^2), so by Steps 1–3 and linearity,

E[(Xiβˆ’ΞΌi)(Xjβˆ’ΞΌj)]=E[Xiβˆ’ΞΌi] E[Xjβˆ’ΞΌj]=0.\mathbb{E}\bigl[(X_i-\mu_i)(X_j-\mu_j)\bigr]=\mathbb{E}[X_i-\mu_i]\,\mathbb{E}[X_j-\mu_j]=0.

Finally, expanding the square of the centered sum and using linearity (claim 2 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral),

Var⁑(βˆ‘i=1rXi)=E[(βˆ‘i(Xiβˆ’ΞΌi))2]=βˆ‘iE[(Xiβˆ’ΞΌi)2]+βˆ‘iβ‰ jE[(Xiβˆ’ΞΌi)(Xjβˆ’ΞΌj)]=βˆ‘iVar⁑(Xi),\operatorname{Var}\Bigl(\sum_{i=1}^{r}X_i\Bigr)=\mathbb{E}\Bigl[\Bigl(\sum_i (X_i-\mu_i)\Bigr)^{2}\Bigr]=\sum_i\mathbb{E}\bigl[(X_i-\mu_i)^{2}\bigr]+\sum_{i\ne j}\mathbb{E}\bigl[(X_i-\mu_i)(X_j-\mu_j)\bigr]=\sum_i\operatorname{Var}(X_i),

using E[βˆ‘iXi]=βˆ‘iΞΌi\mathbb{E}[\sum_i X_i]=\sum_i\mu_i and the variance definition. β– \blacksquare

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