Step 0 (Conventions, the path functional, and two elementary facts). Write E = { 1 , … , l } N E=\{1,\dots,l\}^N E = { 1 , … , l } N and Σ : E → G N \Sigma:E\to\mathbb{G}_N Σ : E → G N , Σ ( x ) γ = 1 N # { i : x i = γ } \Sigma(x)^\gamma=\frac1N\#\{i:x^i=\gamma\} Σ ( x ) γ = N 1 # { i : x i = γ } , as in Forward Equation on the Aggregate Lattice for the Reconstructed Record-Frozen N-Agent Dynamics , so that the empirical state measure of any family of { 1 , … , l } \{1,\dots,l\} { 1 , … , l } -valued agent states is its image under Σ \Sigma Σ and lies in G N \mathbb{G}_N G N (we write σ t = ( σ t 1 , … , σ t N ) \sigma_t=(\sigma^1_t,\dots,\sigma^N_t) σ t = ( σ t 1 , … , σ t N ) , σ u r = ( σ u r , 1 , … , σ u r , N ) \sigma^r_u=(\sigma^{r,1}_u,\dots,\sigma^{r,N}_u) σ u r = ( σ u r , 1 , … , σ u r , N ) and ς 0 = ( ς 0 1 , … , ς 0 N ) \varsigma_0=(\varsigma^1_0,\dots,\varsigma^N_0) ς 0 = ( ς 0 1 , … , ς 0 N ) for the N N N -tuples of agent states); in particular, by the derived notation of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics , Σ t ( ω ) = Σ ( σ t ( ω ) ) ∈ G N \Sigma_t(\omega)=\Sigma(\sigma_t(\omega))\in\mathbb{G}_N Σ t ( ω ) = Σ ( σ t ( ω )) ∈ G N for every ω ∈ Ω \omega\in\Omega ω ∈ Ω and t ∈ [ 0 , T ] t\in[0,T] t ∈ [ 0 , T ] , so that F ′ ( Σ s , W ) F'(\Sigma_s,W) F ′ ( Σ s , W ) in claim 3 is defined on all of Ω \Omega Ω . For r = ( k , t , v ) ∈ R r=(k,\mathbf{t},v)\in\mathbf{R} r = ( k , t , v ) ∈ R define the path functional f r : P a t h → [ 0 , ∞ ) \mathsf{f}_r:\mathsf{Path}\to[0,\infty) f r : Path → [ 0 , ∞ ) by
f r ( p ) = ( ∏ j = 1 k N b ~ v j ( p ( t j − ) ) ) exp ( − N ∫ [ 0 , T ] b ~ t o t ( p ( u ) ) d u ) , \mathsf{f}_r(p)=\Bigl(\prod_{j=1}^{k}N\,\tilde{b}^{v_j}\bigl(p(t_j-)\bigr)\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-N\int_{[0,T]}\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}\bigl(p(u)\bigr)\,du\Bigr), f r ( p ) = ( j = 1 ∏ k N b ~ v j ( p ( t j − ) ) ) exp ( − N ∫ [ 0 , T ] b ~ tot ( p ( u ) ) d u ) ,
with p ( t − ) p(t-) p ( t − ) the left limit of claim 2 of that lemma, the empty product equal to 1 1 1 , exp \exp exp the exponential function , and the integral the Lebesgue integral over the compact interval [ 0 , T ] [0,T] [ 0 , T ] of the bounded measurable map u ↦ b ~ t o t ( p ( u ) ) u\mapsto\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u)) u ↦ b ~ tot ( p ( u )) (claim 3 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals applied to the restriction of b ~ t o t \tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}} b ~ tot to the finite set G N \mathbb{G}_N G N ). The map f r \mathsf{f}_r f r is C \mathcal{C} C -measurable: each factor p ↦ b ~ v j ( p ( t j − ) ) p\mapsto\tilde{b}^{v_j}(p(t_j-)) p ↦ b ~ v j ( p ( t j − )) takes finitely many values and equals ∑ y ∈ G N b ~ v j ( y ) 1 { p ( t j − ) = y } \sum_{y\in\mathbb{G}_N}\tilde{b}^{v_j}(y)\mathbf{1}\{p(t_j-)=y\} ∑ y ∈ G N b ~ v j ( y ) 1 { p ( t j − ) = y } , a linear combination of indicators of members of C \mathcal{C} C (claim 2 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals ); the map p ↦ ∫ [ 0 , T ] b ~ t o t ( p ( u ) ) d u p\mapsto\int_{[0,T]}\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u))\,du p ↦ ∫ [ 0 , T ] b ~ tot ( p ( u )) d u is C \mathcal{C} C -measurable by claim 3 of that lemma; the map t ↦ exp ( − N t ) t\mapsto\exp(-Nt) t ↦ exp ( − Nt ) is continuous on the real line , hence sequentially continuous (given x n → x x_n\to x x n → x and ε > 0 \varepsilon>0 ε > 0 , choose δ \delta δ from the continuity at x x x and then n 0 n_0 n 0 with ∣ x n − x ∣ < δ |x_n-x|<\delta ∣ x n − x ∣ < δ for n ≥ n 0 n\ge n_0 n ≥ n 0 ), so its composition with the latter map is measurable by Sequentially Continuous Functions of Measurable Euclidean Maps are Measurable ; and finite products of measurable real-valued maps are measurable by claim 3 of Arithmetic, Absolute Values, and Pointwise Limits of Measurable Real-Valued Functions . Two elementary facts: (N) if ξ \xi ξ is a [ 0 , ∞ ] [0,\infty] [ 0 , ∞ ] -valued measurable map on a probability space and Z 0 Z_0 Z 0 is an event of probability zero, then ∫ ξ 1 Z 0 ≤ sup n ∫ n 1 Z 0 = 0 \int\xi\,\mathbf{1}_{Z_0}\le\sup_n\int n\,\mathbf{1}_{Z_0}=0 ∫ ξ 1 Z 0 ≤ sup n ∫ n 1 Z 0 = 0 by the monotone convergence theorem and monotonicity, so by additivity (both from claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral ) ∫ ξ = ∫ ξ 1 Ω ′ \int\xi=\int\xi\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega'} ∫ ξ = ∫ ξ 1 Ω ′ for the complement Ω ′ \Omega' Ω ′ of Z 0 Z_0 Z 0 ; consequently two [ 0 , ∞ ] [0,\infty] [ 0 , ∞ ] -valued measurable maps that agree outside an event of probability zero have the same integral. (M) The product of two [ 0 , ∞ ] [0,\infty] [ 0 , ∞ ] -valued measurable maps ξ , ζ \xi,\zeta ξ , ζ is measurable, since { ξ ζ > a } = ⋃ q ( { ξ > q } ∩ { ζ > a / q } ) \{\xi\zeta>a\}=\bigcup_q(\{\xi>q\}\cap\{\zeta>a/q\}) { ξ ζ > a } = ⋃ q ({ ξ > q } ∩ { ζ > a / q }) over the positive rationals q q q when a ≥ 0 a\ge0 a ≥ 0 , and is the whole space when a < 0 a<0 a < 0 ; and a map into a generated σ \sigma σ -algebra is measurable as soon as the preimages of the generators are measurable, the sets with measurable preimage forming a σ \sigma σ -algebra. In particular a pair map ω ↦ ( Φ 1 ( ω ) , Φ 2 ( ω ) ) \omega\mapsto(\Phi_1(\omega),\Phi_2(\omega)) ω ↦ ( Φ 1 ( ω ) , Φ 2 ( ω )) into a product is measurable for the product σ \sigma σ -algebra as soon as its components are, the preimage of a measurable rectangle being the intersection of the two preimages.
Step 1 (Claim 1). The Σ u γ \Sigma^\gamma_u Σ u γ are F u s y s \mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_u F u sys -measurable by clause (iv) of Existence, Uniqueness, and Regularity for the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics , so { Σ u = y } ∈ F \{\Sigma_u=y\}\in\mathcal{F} { Σ u = y } ∈ F for all u ∈ [ 0 , T ] u\in[0,T] u ∈ [ 0 , T ] and y ∈ R l y\in\mathbb{R}^l y ∈ R l ; in particular D 0 ∈ F D_0\in\mathcal{F} D 0 ∈ F . Let ω ∈ Ω 0 \omega\in\Omega_0 ω ∈ Ω 0 . By condition 1 of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics , for each i i i the path t ↦ σ t i ( ω ) t\mapsto\sigma^i_t(\omega) t ↦ σ t i ( ω ) is constant on the intervals determined by finitely many times 0 < t 1 ( i ) < ⋯ < t K ( i ) ( i ) ≤ T 0<t^{(i)}_1<\dots<t^{(i)}_{K^{(i)}}\le T 0 < t 1 ( i ) < ⋯ < t K ( i ) ( i ) ≤ T ; let 0 < s 1 < ⋯ < s M ≤ T 0<s_1<\dots<s_M\le T 0 < s 1 < ⋯ < s M ≤ T enumerate the union of these finite sets. Each of the intervals [ 0 , s 1 ) [0,s_1) [ 0 , s 1 ) , [ s j , s j + 1 ) [s_j,s_{j+1}) [ s j , s j + 1 ) , [ s M , T ] [s_M,T] [ s M , T ] (or [ 0 , T ] [0,T] [ 0 , T ] if M = 0 M=0 M = 0 ) contains no t j ′ ( i ) t^{(i)}_{j'} t j ′ ( i ) except possibly at its left endpoint, so it is contained in one of the constancy intervals of each σ i \sigma^i σ i ; hence all σ i \sigma^i σ i , and therefore Σ ⋅ ( ω ) = Σ ( σ ⋅ ( ω ) ) \Sigma_\cdot(\omega)=\Sigma(\sigma_\cdot(\omega)) Σ ⋅ ( ω ) = Σ ( σ ⋅ ( ω )) , are constant on it. Thus Π ( ω ) ∈ P a t h \Pi(\omega)\in\mathsf{Path} Π ( ω ) ∈ Path , with values in G N \mathbb{G}_N G N by Step 0; for ω ∉ Ω 0 \omega\notin\Omega_0 ω ∈ / Ω 0 , Π ( ω ) \Pi(\omega) Π ( ω ) is constant. For a generator { p : p ( u ) = y } \{p:p(u)=y\} { p : p ( u ) = y } of C \mathcal{C} C , { Π ∈ { p : p ( u ) = y } } = ( Ω 0 ∩ { Σ u = y } ) ∪ ( ( Ω ∖ Ω 0 ) ∩ { ω : x 0 = y } ) ∈ F \{\Pi\in\{p:p(u)=y\}\}=(\Omega_0\cap\{\Sigma_u=y\})\cup((\Omega\setminus\Omega_0)\cap\{\omega:x_0=y\})\in\mathcal{F} { Π ∈ { p : p ( u ) = y }} = ( Ω 0 ∩ { Σ u = y }) ∪ (( Ω ∖ Ω 0 ) ∩ { ω : x 0 = y }) ∈ F , the last set being Ω ∖ Ω 0 \Omega\setminus\Omega_0 Ω ∖ Ω 0 or empty; so Π \Pi Π is measurable by (M), Ω 0 \Omega_0 Ω 0 being an event by Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics . For Π ♯ \Pi^\sharp Π ♯ : by claim 3 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record , the paths Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) \bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat) Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) are the regularised recursion paths of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood for the clocks P ♯ \mathsf{P}^\sharp P ♯ ; by claim 2(a) of that lemma each such path takes values in G N \mathbb{G}_N G N and is constant on [ θ k , θ k + 1 ) [\theta_k,\theta_{k+1}) [ θ k , θ k + 1 ) (k < K k<K k < K ) and on [ θ K , T ] [\theta_K,T] [ θ K , T ] for the times 0 = ϑ 0 < ϑ 1 < ⋯ < ϑ K ≤ T 0=\vartheta_0<\vartheta_1<\dots<\vartheta_K\le T 0 = ϑ 0 < ϑ 1 < ⋯ < ϑ K ≤ T of the recursion (written θ k \theta_k θ k there; here θ \theta θ is reserved for the R d \mathbb{R}^d R d -coordinate of Ω ♯ \Omega^\sharp Ω ♯ ), so it lies in P a t h \mathsf{Path} Path with the times ϑ 1 , … , ϑ K \vartheta_1,\dots,\vartheta_K ϑ 1 , … , ϑ K . By claim 2(d) of that lemma, for each γ \gamma γ the map ( t , r , ω ♭ ) ↦ Σ ˉ t ♯ , r , γ ( ω ♭ ) (t,r,\omega^\flat)\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r,\gamma}_t(\omega^\flat) ( t , r , ω ♭ ) ↦ Σ ˉ t ♯ , r , γ ( ω ♭ ) is B [ 0 , T ] ⊗ ( R ⊗ F ♭ ) \mathcal{B}_{[0,T]}\otimes(\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat) B [ 0 , T ] ⊗ ( R ⊗ F ♭ ) -measurable; its section at t = u t=u t = u is R ⊗ F ♭ \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat R ⊗ F ♭ -measurable by claim 3 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable , and its composition with the rearrangement ( ( ω ♭ , θ ) , r ) ↦ ( r , ω ♭ ) ((\omega^\flat,\theta),r)\mapsto(r,\omega^\flat) (( ω ♭ , θ ) , r ) ↦ ( r , ω ♭ ) , measurable from F ♯ \mathcal{F}^\sharp F ♯ to R ⊗ F ♭ \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat R ⊗ F ♭ by claim 5 of that lemma, is F ♯ \mathcal{F}^\sharp F ♯ -measurable. Hence { Π ♯ ∈ { p : p ( u ) = y } } = ⋂ γ { ( ω ♭ , θ , r ) : Σ ˉ u ♯ , r , γ ( ω ♭ ) = y γ } ∈ F ♯ \{\Pi^\sharp\in\{p:p(u)=y\}\}=\bigcap_{\gamma}\{(\omega^\flat,\theta,r):\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r,\gamma}_u(\omega^\flat)=y^\gamma\}\in\mathcal{F}^\sharp { Π ♯ ∈ { p : p ( u ) = y }} = ⋂ γ {( ω ♭ , θ , r ) : Σ ˉ u ♯ , r , γ ( ω ♭ ) = y γ } ∈ F ♯ , and Π ♯ \Pi^\sharp Π ♯ is measurable by (M). Finally W W W is measurable by clause (f) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records , and D \mathsf{D} D by claim 4 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record .
Step 2 (The N N N -agent side). Let T \mathcal{T} T be the σ \sigma σ -algebra generated by the initial states and the transition-clock variables, as in Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records , and define Π G \Pi^G Π G on R × Ω \mathbf{R}\times\Omega R × Ω by Π G ( r , ω ) ( u ) = Σ u r ( ω ) \Pi^G(r,\omega)(u)=\Sigma^r_u(\omega) Π G ( r , ω ) ( u ) = Σ u r ( ω ) for ( r , ω ) ∈ G (r,\omega)\in G ( r , ω ) ∈ G and Π G ( r , ω ) ( u ) = x 0 \Pi^G(r,\omega)(u)=x_0 Π G ( r , ω ) ( u ) = x 0 otherwise. For ( r , ω ) ∈ G (r,\omega)\in G ( r , ω ) ∈ G , clause (c) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records gives η u r , i , γ ( ω ) = 1 { σ u r , i ( ω ) = γ } \eta^{r,i,\gamma}_u(\omega)=\mathbf{1}\{\sigma^{r,i}_u(\omega)=\gamma\} η u r , i , γ ( ω ) = 1 { σ u r , i ( ω ) = γ } , so Σ u r ( ω ) = Σ ( σ u r ( ω ) ) ∈ G N \Sigma^r_u(\omega)=\Sigma(\sigma^r_u(\omega))\in\mathbb{G}_N Σ u r ( ω ) = Σ ( σ u r ( ω )) ∈ G N , and each path u ↦ σ u r , i ( ω ) u\mapsto\sigma^{r,i}_u(\omega) u ↦ σ u r , i ( ω ) is piecewise constant in the sense of condition 1 of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics ; the union-of-times argument of Step 1 shows Π G ( r , ω ) ∈ P a t h \Pi^G(r,\omega)\in\mathsf{Path} Π G ( r , ω ) ∈ Path . Off G G G the path is constant. For a generator { p : p ( u ) = y } \{p:p(u)=y\} { p : p ( u ) = y } , { Π G ∈ { p : p ( u ) = y } } = ( G ∩ { ( r , ω ) : Σ u r ( ω ) = y } ) ∪ ( ( ( R × Ω ) ∖ G ) ∩ { ( r , ω ) : x 0 = y } ) \{\Pi^G\in\{p:p(u)=y\}\}=(G\cap\{(r,\omega):\Sigma^r_u(\omega)=y\})\cup(((\mathbf{R}\times\Omega)\setminus G)\cap\{(r,\omega):x_0=y\}) { Π G ∈ { p : p ( u ) = y }} = ( G ∩ {( r , ω ) : Σ u r ( ω ) = y }) ∪ ((( R × Ω ) ∖ G ) ∩ {( r , ω ) : x 0 = y }) ; here G ∈ R ⊗ T G\in\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T} G ∈ R ⊗ T , and ( r , ω ) ↦ η u r , i , γ ( ω ) (r,\omega)\mapsto\eta^{r,i,\gamma}_u(\omega) ( r , ω ) ↦ η u r , i , γ ( ω ) is R ⊗ T \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T} R ⊗ T -measurable by clause (a) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records and claim 4 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable (the insertion ( r , ω ) ↦ ( ( r , u ) , ω ) (r,\omega)\mapsto((r,u),\omega) ( r , ω ) ↦ (( r , u ) , ω ) with the middle coordinate fixed), so { ( r , ω ) : Σ u r ( ω ) = y } = ⋂ γ { ( r , ω ) : 1 N ∑ i η u r , i , γ ( ω ) = y γ } ∈ R ⊗ T \{(r,\omega):\Sigma^r_u(\omega)=y\}=\bigcap_\gamma\{(r,\omega):\frac1N\sum_i\eta^{r,i,\gamma}_u(\omega)=y^\gamma\}\in\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T} {( r , ω ) : Σ u r ( ω ) = y } = ⋂ γ {( r , ω ) : N 1 ∑ i η u r , i , γ ( ω ) = y γ } ∈ R ⊗ T . Thus Π G \Pi^G Π G is measurable with respect to R ⊗ T \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T} R ⊗ T and C \mathcal{C} C by (M). Put D 0 ′ = { ω : Σ ( ς 0 1 ( ω ) , … , ς 0 N ( ω ) ) = x 0 } D'_0=\{\omega:\Sigma(\varsigma^1_0(\omega),\dots,\varsigma^N_0(\omega))=x_0\} D 0 ′ = { ω : Σ ( ς 0 1 ( ω ) , … , ς 0 N ( ω )) = x 0 } , a member of T \mathcal{T} T since the ς 0 i \varsigma^i_0 ς 0 i are among the generators of T \mathcal{T} T , and define
H ( r , ω ) = 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) F ( Π G ( r , ω ) , r ) ( ( r , ω ) ∈ R × Ω ) , H(r,\omega)=\mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega)\,F\bigl(\Pi^G(r,\omega),r\bigr)\qquad((r,\omega)\in\mathbf{R}\times\Omega), H ( r , ω ) = 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) F ( Π G ( r , ω ) , r ) (( r , ω ) ∈ R × Ω ) ,
which is R ⊗ T \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T} R ⊗ T -measurable and [ 0 , ∞ ] [0,\infty] [ 0 , ∞ ] -valued: the pair map ( r , ω ) ↦ ( Π G ( r , ω ) , r ) (r,\omega)\mapsto(\Pi^G(r,\omega),r) ( r , ω ) ↦ ( Π G ( r , ω ) , r ) is measurable into C ⊗ R \mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} C ⊗ R by (M), so F F F composed with it is measurable, and the factor 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) \mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega) 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) is the indicator of the rectangle R × D 0 ′ \mathbf{R}\times D'_0 R × D 0 ′ .
Reduction to H H H . Let Ω 1 \Omega_1 Ω 1 be the intersection of Ω 0 \Omega_0 Ω 0 with the event of probability one of clause (f) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records ; P ( Ω 1 ) = 1 P(\Omega_1)=1 P ( Ω 1 ) = 1 . For ω ∈ Ω 1 \omega\in\Omega_1 ω ∈ Ω 1 : ( W ( ω ) , ω ) ∈ G (W(\omega),\omega)\in G ( W ( ω ) , ω ) ∈ G and η u i , γ ( ω ) = η u W ( ω ) , i , γ ( ω ) \eta^{i,\gamma}_u(\omega)=\eta^{W(\omega),i,\gamma}_u(\omega) η u i , γ ( ω ) = η u W ( ω ) , i , γ ( ω ) for all u , i , γ u,i,\gamma u , i , γ , so Σ u ( ω ) = Σ u W ( ω ) ( ω ) \Sigma_u(\omega)=\Sigma^{W(\omega)}_u(\omega) Σ u ( ω ) = Σ u W ( ω ) ( ω ) for all u u u and Π ( ω ) = Π G ( W ( ω ) , ω ) \Pi(\omega)=\Pi^G(W(\omega),\omega) Π ( ω ) = Π G ( W ( ω ) , ω ) ; and σ 0 i ( ω ) = ς 0 i ( ω ) \sigma^i_0(\omega)=\varsigma^i_0(\omega) σ 0 i ( ω ) = ς 0 i ( ω ) by condition 1 of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics , so Σ 0 ( ω ) = Σ ( ς 0 ( ω ) ) \Sigma_0(\omega)=\Sigma(\varsigma_0(\omega)) Σ 0 ( ω ) = Σ ( ς 0 ( ω )) and 1 D 0 ( ω ) = 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) \mathbf{1}_{D_0}(\omega)=\mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega) 1 D 0 ( ω ) = 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) . Hence 1 D 0 F ( Π , W ) = H ( W , ⋅ ) \mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)=H(W,\cdot) 1 D 0 F ( Π , W ) = H ( W , ⋅ ) on Ω 1 \Omega_1 Ω 1 , and by (N)
E [ 1 D 0 F ( Π , W ) ] = E [ H ( W , ⋅ ) ] . ( 1 ) \mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)\bigr]=\mathbb{E}\bigl[H(W,\cdot)\bigr].\qquad(1) E [ 1 D 0 F ( Π , W ) ] = E [ H ( W , ⋅ ) ] . ( 1 )
The record density. Let f : R × Ω → [ 0 , ∞ ) f:\mathbf{R}\times\Omega\to[0,\infty) f : R × Ω → [ 0 , ∞ ) be the record density kernel of Conditional Density of the Observation Record Given the Initial States and Transition Clocks for the fixed reconstruction data. By claim 1 of that lemma ρ \rho ρ is finite, hence σ \sigma σ -finite; by claim 2, f f f is R ⊗ T \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T} R ⊗ T -measurable; and claim 3 (with Z = 1 C Z=\mathbf{1}_C Z = 1 C and g = 1 A g=\mathbf{1}_A g = 1 A ) gives the hypothesis of A Conditional Density Identity for Products Extends to Jointly Measurable Integrands for the sub-σ \sigma σ -algebra T \mathcal{T} T , the map W W W and the kernel f f f . That lemma yields
E [ H ( W , ⋅ ) ] = E [ ∫ R H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ ) ρ ( d r ) ] = ∫ R E [ H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ ) ] ρ ( d r ) , ( 2 ) \mathbb{E}\bigl[H(W,\cdot)\bigr]=\mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_{\mathbf{R}}H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)\,\rho(dr)\Bigr]=\int_{\mathbf{R}}\mathbb{E}\bigl[H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)\bigr]\,\rho(dr),\qquad(2) E [ H ( W , ⋅ ) ] = E [ ∫ R H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ ) ρ ( d r ) ] = ∫ R E [ H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ ) ] ρ ( d r ) , ( 2 )
the second equality by the Tonelli theorem on the product of ( R , R , ρ ) (\mathbf{R},\mathcal{R},\rho) ( R , R , ρ ) and ( Ω , F , P ) (\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) ( Ω , F , P ) , the map H f Hf H f being measurable for R ⊗ T ⊆ R ⊗ F \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T}\subseteq\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F} R ⊗ T ⊆ R ⊗ F (every measurable rectangle of the former is one of the latter) and by (M); both iterated integrals equal the integral against the product measure , and Tonelli also gives the R \mathcal{R} R -measurability of r ↦ E [ H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ ) ] r\mapsto\mathbb{E}[H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)] r ↦ E [ H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ )] .
The integrand at a fixed record. Fix r = ( k , t , v ) ∈ R r=(k,\mathbf{t},v)\in\mathbf{R} r = ( k , t , v ) ∈ R and let Σ ^ r \hat{\Sigma}^r Σ ^ r , Ω r \Omega^r Ω r and the map Π r \Pi^r Π r be those of Forward Equation on the Aggregate Lattice for the Reconstructed Record-Frozen N-Agent Dynamics and of claim 2 of Law Identity between the Reconstructed Record-Frozen Aggregate and the Aggregate Recursion Driven by the Same Control Path with T ′ = T T'=T T ′ = T and the point x 0 x_0 x 0 (Π r \Pi^r Π r is defined on the N N N -agent side alone: it is the path u ↦ Σ ^ u r u\mapsto\hat{\Sigma}^r_u u ↦ Σ ^ u r on Ω r \Omega^r Ω r and the constant path x 0 x_0 x 0 off Ω r \Omega^r Ω r ). For ω ∈ Ω r \omega\in\Omega^r ω ∈ Ω r we have ( r , ω ) ∈ G (r,\omega)\in G ( r , ω ) ∈ G (clause (d) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records ), hence: Π G ( r , ω ) \Pi^G(r,\omega) Π G ( r , ω ) is the path u ↦ Σ u r ( ω ) = Σ ^ u r ( ω ) u\mapsto\Sigma^r_u(\omega)=\hat{\Sigma}^r_u(\omega) u ↦ Σ u r ( ω ) = Σ ^ u r ( ω ) (claim 1 of Forward Equation on the Aggregate Lattice for the Reconstructed Record-Frozen N-Agent Dynamics ), which is Π r ( ω ) \Pi^r(\omega) Π r ( ω ) ; 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) = 1 { Σ ^ 0 r ( ω ) = x 0 } \mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega)=\mathbf{1}\{\hat{\Sigma}^r_0(\omega)=x_0\} 1 D 0 ′ ( ω ) = 1 { Σ ^ 0 r ( ω ) = x 0 } , because σ 0 r , i ( ω ) = ς 0 i ( ω ) \sigma^{r,i}_0(\omega)=\varsigma^i_0(\omega) σ 0 r , i ( ω ) = ς 0 i ( ω ) by clause (c); and, by the definition of the kernel on G G G ,
f ( r , ω ) = ( ∏ j = 1 k N b ~ v j ( Σ t j − r ( ω ) ) ) exp ( − N ∫ [ 0 , T ] b ~ t o t ( Σ u r ( ω ) ) d u ) = f r ( Π G ( r , ω ) ) , f(r,\omega)=\Bigl(\prod_{j=1}^{k}N\,\tilde{b}^{v_j}\bigl(\Sigma^r_{t_j-}(\omega)\bigr)\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-N\int_{[0,T]}\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}\bigl(\Sigma^r_u(\omega)\bigr)\,du\Bigr)=\mathsf{f}_r\bigl(\Pi^G(r,\omega)\bigr), f ( r , ω ) = ( j = 1 ∏ k N b ~ v j ( Σ t j − r ( ω ) ) ) exp ( − N ∫ [ 0 , T ] b ~ tot ( Σ u r ( ω ) ) d u ) = f r ( Π G ( r , ω ) ) ,
since the left limit Σ t j − r ( ω ) \Sigma^r_{t_j-}(\omega) Σ t j − r ( ω ) of the path (the common value on some [ t j − δ , t j ) [t_j-\delta,t_j) [ t j − δ , t j ) ) is the left limit p ( t j − ) p(t_j-) p ( t j − ) of claim 2 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals for p = Π G ( r , ω ) p=\Pi^G(r,\omega) p = Π G ( r , ω ) . Put Φ r ( p ) = F ( p , r ) f r ( p ) \Phi_r(p)=F(p,r)\,\mathsf{f}_r(p) Φ r ( p ) = F ( p , r ) f r ( p ) for p ∈ P a t h p\in\mathsf{Path} p ∈ Path ; p ↦ F ( p , r ) p\mapsto F(p,r) p ↦ F ( p , r ) is C \mathcal{C} C -measurable by claim 3 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable (section at r r r ), so Φ r \Phi_r Φ r is C \mathcal{C} C -measurable by Step 0 and (M). Since P ( Ω r ) = 1 P(\Omega^r)=1 P ( Ω r ) = 1 , (N) gives
E [ H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ ) ] = E [ 1 { Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 } Φ r ( Π r ) ] . ( 3 ) \mathbb{E}\bigl[H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)\bigr]=\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}\{\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0\}\,\Phi_r(\Pi^r)\bigr].\qquad(3) E [ H ( r , ⋅ ) f ( r , ⋅ ) ] = E [ 1 { Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 } Φ r ( Π r ) ] . ( 3 )
Transfer to the copy clocks. Apply Law Identity between the Reconstructed Record-Frozen Aggregate and the Aggregate Recursion Driven by the Same Control Path with T ′ = T T'=T T ′ = T , the point x 0 x_0 x 0 , and the copy setting consisting of the probability space ( Ω ♭ , F ♭ , P ♭ ) (\Omega^\flat,\mathcal{F}^\flat,P^\flat) ( Ω ♭ , F ♭ , P ♭ ) carrying the copy clocks P ♯ \mathsf{P}^\sharp P ♯ , that is, the space called ( Ω ♯ , F ♯ , P ♯ ) (\Omega^\sharp,\mathcal{F}^\sharp,P^\sharp) ( Ω ♯ , F ♯ , P ♯ ) in that lemma is here ( Ω ♭ , F ♭ , P ♭ ) (\Omega^\flat,\mathcal{F}^\flat,P^\flat) ( Ω ♭ , F ♭ , P ♭ ) , its conflict-free event Ω 0 ♯ \Omega^\sharp_0 Ω 0 ♯ is here Ω 0 , r ♭ \Omega^\flat_{0,r} Ω 0 , r ♭ , its regularised path Σ ˉ ♯ \bar{\Sigma}^\sharp Σ ˉ ♯ is here Σ ˉ ♯ , r \bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r} Σ ˉ ♯ , r , and its map Π ♯ \Pi^\sharp Π ♯ is here written Π ♭ , r \Pi^{\flat,r} Π ♭ , r , while the symbols Ω ♯ \Omega^\sharp Ω ♯ , F ♯ \mathcal{F}^\sharp F ♯ and Π ♯ \Pi^\sharp Π ♯ keep the meanings fixed in the statement: the copy clocks are Poisson clocks with horizon R R R with independent generated σ \sigma σ -algebras by claims 2 and 3 of The Copy Clocks Are Independent Poisson Clocks with Horizon R, and Every Record Is Almost Surely Conflict-Free for Them , R > N B T R>NBT R > NBT by hypothesis, the aggregate recursion for ( P ♯ ( ω ♭ ) , a r , x 0 ) (\mathsf{P}^\sharp(\omega^\flat),a^r,x_0) ( P ♯ ( ω ♭ ) , a r , x 0 ) has the regularised recursion path u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat) u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) (the same regularisation, replacing values outside G N \mathbb{G}_N G N by x 0 x_0 x 0 , is used in Forward Equation for the Aggregate Recursion Driven by Independent Poisson Clocks with a Horizon and in claim 2 of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood ), and its conflict-free event Ω 0 , r ♭ = { ω ♭ : ( r , ω ♭ ) ∈ G ♯ } \Omega^\flat_{0,r}=\{\omega^\flat:(r,\omega^\flat)\in\mathsf{G}^\sharp\} Ω 0 , r ♭ = { ω ♭ : ( r , ω ♭ ) ∈ G ♯ } has P ♭ ( Ω 0 , r ♭ ) = 1 P^\flat(\Omega^\flat_{0,r})=1 P ♭ ( Ω 0 , r ♭ ) = 1 by claim 4 of The Copy Clocks Are Independent Poisson Clocks with Horizon R, and Every Record Is Almost Surely Conflict-Free for Them . Claim 2 of Law Identity between the Reconstructed Record-Frozen Aggregate and the Aggregate Recursion Driven by the Same Control Path gives, with Π ♭ , r \Pi^{\flat,r} Π ♭ , r (equal to u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat) u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) on Ω 0 , r ♭ \Omega^\flat_{0,r} Ω 0 , r ♭ ),
E [ 1 { Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 } Φ r ( Π r ) ] = P ( Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 ) ∫ Ω ♭ Φ r ( Π ♭ , r ) d P ♭ = P ( D 0 ) ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) , ( 4 ) \mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}\{\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0\}\,\Phi_r(\Pi^r)\bigr]=P(\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0)\int_{\Omega^\flat}\Phi_r(\Pi^{\flat,r})\,dP^\flat=P(D_0)\int_{\Omega^\flat}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\mathsf{f}_r\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat),\qquad(4) E [ 1 { Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 } Φ r ( Π r ) ] = P ( Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 ) ∫ Ω ♭ Φ r ( Π ♭ , r ) d P ♭ = P ( D 0 ) ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) , ( 4 )
where Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) \bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat) Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) denotes the path u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat) u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , using (N) on Ω ♭ \Omega^\flat Ω ♭ (the integrands agree on Ω 0 , r ♭ \Omega^\flat_{0,r} Ω 0 , r ♭ ; the second integrand is F ♭ \mathcal{F}^\flat F ♭ -measurable as Φ r \Phi_r Φ r composed with the section at θ \theta θ and r r r of the measurable map Π ♯ \Pi^\sharp Π ♯ of Step 1, claims 2 and 4 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable ), and using P ( Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 ) = P ( D 0 ′ ) = P ( D 0 ) P(\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0)=P(D'_0)=P(D_0) P ( Σ ^ 0 r = x 0 ) = P ( D 0 ′ ) = P ( D 0 ) , the three events agreeing on Ω r ∩ Ω 1 \Omega^r\cap\Omega_1 Ω r ∩ Ω 1 . The map ( r , ω ♭ ) ↦ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) (r,\omega^\flat)\mapsto F(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r)\,\mathsf{f}_r(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)) ( r , ω ♭ ) ↦ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ )) is R ⊗ F ♭ \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat R ⊗ F ♭ -measurable: the pair map ( r , ω ♭ ) ↦ ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) (r,\omega^\flat)\mapsto(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r) ( r , ω ♭ ) ↦ ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) is measurable into C ⊗ R \mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} C ⊗ R by (M), the preimage of a generator { p : p ( u ) = y } \{p:p(u)=y\} { p : p ( u ) = y } being { ( r , ω ♭ ) : Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) = y } ∈ R ⊗ F ♭ \{(r,\omega^\flat):\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat)=y\}\in\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat {( r , ω ♭ ) : Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) = y } ∈ R ⊗ F ♭ as shown in Step 1, and the second factor equals ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) \ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) by the identification proved in Step 3 below (which does not depend on this step), a map that is R ⊗ F ♭ \mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat R ⊗ F ♭ -measurable by claim 3 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record ; hence, by the Tonelli theorem, r ↦ ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) r\mapsto\int_{\Omega^\flat}F(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r)\,\mathsf{f}_r(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat))\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat) r ↦ ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ )) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) is R \mathcal{R} R -measurable. Combining (1)--(4) and pulling the constant P ( D 0 ) ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] P(D_0)\in[0,1] P ( D 0 ) ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] out of the ρ \rho ρ -integral (claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral ; when P ( D 0 ) = 0 P(D_0)=0 P ( D 0 ) = 0 the left side of (1) vanishes by (N) and the right side of the display below vanishes by the convention 0 ⋅ ∞ = 0 0\cdot\infty=0 0 ⋅ ∞ = 0 ),
E [ 1 D 0 F ( Π , W ) ] = P ( D 0 ) ∫ R ( ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) ) ρ ( d r ) . ( 5 ) \mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)\bigr]=P(D_0)\int_{\mathbf{R}}\Bigl(\int_{\Omega^\flat}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\mathsf{f}_r\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat)\Bigr)\rho(dr).\qquad(5) E [ 1 D 0 F ( Π , W ) ] = P ( D 0 ) ∫ R ( ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) ) ρ ( d r ) . ( 5 )
Step 3 (The copy side). The map ( ω ♭ , θ , r ) ↦ ( Π ♯ ( ω ♭ , θ , r ) , r ) (\omega^\flat,\theta,r)\mapsto(\Pi^\sharp(\omega^\flat,\theta,r),r) ( ω ♭ , θ , r ) ↦ ( Π ♯ ( ω ♭ , θ , r ) , r ) is measurable from F ♯ \mathcal{F}^\sharp F ♯ to C ⊗ R \mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} C ⊗ R by Step 1 and (M), so F ( Π ♯ , D ) F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D}) F ( Π ♯ , D ) is F ♯ \mathcal{F}^\sharp F ♯ -measurable. By claim 4 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record , μ ♯ \mu^\sharp μ ♯ is the measure with density q ♯ ( ω ♭ , θ , r ) = φ η ( θ − K ( ω ♭ ) / N ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) \mathsf{q}^\sharp(\omega^\flat,\theta,r)=\varphi_\eta(\theta-\mathsf{K}(\omega^\flat)/\sqrt{N})\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r) q ♯ ( ω ♭ , θ , r ) = φ η ( θ − K ( ω ♭ ) / N ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) with respect to ( P ♭ ⊗ λ d ) ⊗ ρ (P^\flat\otimes\lambda_d)\otimes\rho ( P ♭ ⊗ λ d ) ⊗ ρ , so by claim 3 of Image Measures, Measures with Densities, and Change of Variables and the Tonelli theorem on the product of the σ \sigma σ -finite spaces ( Ω ♭ × R d , F ♭ ⊗ B ( R d ) , P ♭ ⊗ λ d ) (\Omega^\flat\times\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{F}^\flat\otimes\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d),P^\flat\otimes\lambda_d) ( Ω ♭ × R d , F ♭ ⊗ B ( R d ) , P ♭ ⊗ λ d ) (the product measure of the finite P ♭ P^\flat P ♭ and the σ \sigma σ -finite λ d \lambda_d λ d , itself σ \sigma σ -finite) and ( R , R , ρ ) (\mathbf{R},\mathcal{R},\rho) ( R , R , ρ ) (ρ \rho ρ finite),
∫ Ω ♯ F ( Π ♯ , D ) d μ ♯ = ∫ R ( ∫ Ω ♭ × R d F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) φ η ( θ − K ( ω ♭ ) / N ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) ( P ♭ ⊗ λ d ) ( d ( ω ♭ , θ ) ) ) ρ ( d r ) . \int_{\Omega^\sharp}F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D})\,d\mu^\sharp=\int_{\mathbf{R}}\Bigl(\int_{\Omega^\flat\times\mathbb{R}^d}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\varphi_\eta\bigl(\theta-\mathsf{K}(\omega^\flat)/\sqrt{N}\bigr)\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)\,(P^\flat\otimes\lambda_d)(d(\omega^\flat,\theta))\Bigr)\rho(dr). ∫ Ω ♯ F ( Π ♯ , D ) d μ ♯ = ∫ R ( ∫ Ω ♭ × R d F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) φ η ( θ − K ( ω ♭ ) / N ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) ( P ♭ ⊗ λ d ) ( d ( ω ♭ , θ )) ) ρ ( d r ) .
For fixed r r r the inner integrand is F ♭ ⊗ B ( R d ) \mathcal{F}^\flat\otimes\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d) F ♭ ⊗ B ( R d ) -measurable (claim 3 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable ), and Tonelli on the product of ( Ω ♭ , F ♭ , P ♭ ) (\Omega^\flat,\mathcal{F}^\flat,P^\flat) ( Ω ♭ , F ♭ , P ♭ ) and ( R d , B ( R d ) , λ d ) (\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d),\lambda_d) ( R d , B ( R d ) , λ d ) writes the inner integral as ∫ Ω ♭ ( ∫ R d κ ( ω ♭ ) φ η ( θ − K ( ω ♭ ) / N ) λ d ( d θ ) ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) \int_{\Omega^\flat}\bigl(\int_{\mathbb{R}^d}\kappa(\omega^\flat)\,\varphi_\eta(\theta-\mathsf{K}(\omega^\flat)/\sqrt{N})\,\lambda_d(d\theta)\bigr)P^\flat(d\omega^\flat) ∫ Ω ♭ ( ∫ R d κ ( ω ♭ ) φ η ( θ − K ( ω ♭ ) / N ) λ d ( d θ ) ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) with κ ( ω ♭ ) = F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) ∈ [ 0 , ∞ ] \kappa(\omega^\flat)=F(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r)\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)\in[0,\infty] κ ( ω ♭ ) = F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) ∈ [ 0 , ∞ ] . For every a ∈ R d a\in\mathbb{R}^d a ∈ R d , ∫ R d φ η ( θ − a ) λ d ( d θ ) = 1 \int_{\mathbb{R}^d}\varphi_\eta(\theta-a)\,\lambda_d(d\theta)=1 ∫ R d φ η ( θ − a ) λ d ( d θ ) = 1 by claim 1 of The Gaussian Smoothing Weight: Normalization, Derivatives, Exponential Tilting, Moments, and First-Order Remainder ; hence ∫ R d κ φ η ( θ − a ) λ d ( d θ ) = κ \int_{\mathbb{R}^d}\kappa\,\varphi_\eta(\theta-a)\,\lambda_d(d\theta)=\kappa ∫ R d κ φ η ( θ − a ) λ d ( d θ ) = κ for κ ∈ [ 0 , ∞ ) \kappa\in[0,\infty) κ ∈ [ 0 , ∞ ) by claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral , and also for κ = ∞ \kappa=\infty κ = ∞ , since then the integrand is the supremum of the nondecreasing sequence n φ η ( θ − a ) n\varphi_\eta(\theta-a) n φ η ( θ − a ) (φ η > 0 \varphi_\eta>0 φ η > 0 everywhere by claim 1 of The Gaussian Smoothing Weight: Normalization, Derivatives, Exponential Tilting, Moments, and First-Order Remainder ) and the monotone convergence theorem gives sup n n = ∞ \sup_nn=\infty sup n n = ∞ . Therefore
∫ Ω ♯ F ( Π ♯ , D ) d μ ♯ = ∫ R ( ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) ) ρ ( d r ) . ( 6 ) \int_{\Omega^\sharp}F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D})\,d\mu^\sharp=\int_{\mathbf{R}}\Bigl(\int_{\Omega^\flat}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat)\Bigr)\rho(dr).\qquad(6) ∫ Ω ♯ F ( Π ♯ , D ) d μ ♯ = ∫ R ( ∫ Ω ♭ F ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) , r ) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) P ♭ ( d ω ♭ ) ) ρ ( d r ) . ( 6 )
The likelihood is the path functional. Fix r = ( k , t , v ) r=(k,\mathbf{t},v) r = ( k , t , v ) and ω ♭ \omega^\flat ω ♭ , and write p p p for the path u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat) u ↦ Σ ˉ u ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) . By claim 3 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record , ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ \ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat} ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ is the record-driven likelihood of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood for the clocks P ♯ \mathsf{P}^\sharp P ♯ , that is, by claim 4 of that lemma and Likelihood of a Causal Intensity on the Observation Record Space , the likelihood of the causal intensity λ t υ ( r ) = N b ~ υ ( Σ ˉ t − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) \lambda^{\upsilon}_t(r)=N\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{t-}(\omega^\flat)) λ t υ ( r ) = N b ~ υ ( Σ ˉ t − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ )) of its claim 3, with total intensity λ u t o t ( r ) = N b ~ t o t ( Σ ˉ u − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) \lambda^{\mathrm{tot}}_u(r)=N\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{u-}(\omega^\flat)) λ u tot ( r ) = N b ~ tot ( Σ ˉ u − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ )) :
ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) = ( ∏ j = 1 k N b ~ v j ( Σ ˉ t j − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) ) exp ( − ∫ [ 0 , T ] N b ~ t o t ( Σ ˉ u − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) d u ) . \ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)=\Bigl(\prod_{j=1}^{k}N\,\tilde{b}^{v_j}\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{t_j-}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-\int_{[0,T]}N\,\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{u-}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\,du\Bigr). ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) = ( j = 1 ∏ k N b ~ v j ( Σ ˉ t j − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) ) exp ( − ∫ [ 0 , T ] N b ~ tot ( Σ ˉ u − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) d u ) .
The left limit Σ ˉ t − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) \bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{t-}(\omega^\flat) Σ ˉ t − ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) of claim 2(b) of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood is defined by the same property as the left limit p ( t − ) p(t-) p ( t − ) of claim 2 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals , so they coincide; and by claim 2(b) the maps u ↦ b ~ t o t ( p ( u − ) ) u\mapsto\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u-)) u ↦ b ~ tot ( p ( u − )) and u ↦ b ~ t o t ( p ( u ) ) u\mapsto\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u)) u ↦ b ~ tot ( p ( u )) on [ 0 , T ] [0,T] [ 0 , T ] (the first read with p ( 0 − ) = x 0 p(0-)=x_0 p ( 0 − ) = x 0 , which is p ( 0 ) p(0) p ( 0 ) : the recursion has ϑ 0 = 0 < ϑ 1 \vartheta_0=0<\vartheta_1 ϑ 0 = 0 < ϑ 1 and x ( 0 ) = x 0 ∈ G N x^{(0)}=x_0\in\mathbb{G}_N x ( 0 ) = x 0 ∈ G N , so Σ ˉ 0 ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) = x 0 \bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_0(\omega^\flat)=x_0 Σ ˉ 0 ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) = x 0 ) agree outside the finite set { ϑ 1 , … , ϑ K } \{\vartheta_1,\dots,\vartheta_K\} { ϑ 1 , … , ϑ K } , which is a λ [ 0 , T ] \lambda_{[0,T]} λ [ 0 , T ] -null set by Existence of Lebesgue Measure on the Real Line (points have Lebesgue measure zero); both maps are nonnegative and B [ 0 , T ] \mathcal{B}_{[0,T]} B [ 0 , T ] -measurable (the first as the integrand of the likelihood, the second by claim 3 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals ), so their integrals over [ 0 , T ] [0,T] [ 0 , T ] agree by claim 6 of Restricted Lebesgue Measure and Integral Toolkit on a Compact Interval , applied to each with the co-null set D D D equal to the complement of { ϑ 1 , … , ϑ K } \{\vartheta_1,\dots,\vartheta_K\} { ϑ 1 , … , ϑ K } , on which the two products with 1 D \mathbf{1}_D 1 D coincide. Pulling out the constant N N N (claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral ), we conclude ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) = f r ( p ) \ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)=\mathsf{f}_r(p) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) = f r ( p ) for every r r r and ω ♭ \omega^\flat ω ♭ .
Step 4 (Conclusion). Substituting ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) = f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ ) ) \ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)=\mathsf{f}_r(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)) ℓ ♯ , ω ♭ ( r ) = f r ( Σ ˉ ♯ , r ( ω ♭ )) into (6) shows that the right side of (6), multiplied by P ( D 0 ) P(D_0) P ( D 0 ) , is the right side of (5). This proves claim 2. For claim 3, let s ∈ [ 0 , T ] s\in[0,T] s ∈ [ 0 , T ] and F ′ F' F ′ be as stated and put F ( p , r ) = F ′ ( p ( s ) , r ) F(p,r)=F'(p(s),r) F ( p , r ) = F ′ ( p ( s ) , r ) ; the map ( p , r ) ↦ ( p ( s ) , r ) (p,r)\mapsto(p(s),r) ( p , r ) ↦ ( p ( s ) , r ) is measurable from C ⊗ R \mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} C ⊗ R to the product of the σ \sigma σ -algebra of all subsets of G N \mathbb{G}_N G N and R \mathcal{R} R (its components are the evaluation at s s s , measurable by claim 1 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals composed with the coordinate projection of claim 5 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable , and the other coordinate projection), so F F F is C ⊗ R \mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} C ⊗ R -measurable. On Ω 0 \Omega_0 Ω 0 , F ( Π , W ) = F ′ ( Σ s , W ) F(\Pi,W)=F'(\Sigma_s,W) F ( Π , W ) = F ′ ( Σ s , W ) , so E [ 1 D 0 F ( Π , W ) ] = E [ 1 D 0 F ′ ( Σ s , W ) ] \mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)]=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F'(\Sigma_s,W)] E [ 1 D 0 F ( Π , W )] = E [ 1 D 0 F ′ ( Σ s , W )] by (N) (the map ω ↦ F ′ ( Σ s ( ω ) , W ( ω ) ) \omega\mapsto F'(\Sigma_s(\omega),W(\omega)) ω ↦ F ′ ( Σ s ( ω ) , W ( ω )) being F \mathcal{F} F -measurable by (M), as { Σ s = y } ∈ F \{\Sigma_s=y\}\in\mathcal{F} { Σ s = y } ∈ F ); and F ( Π ♯ , D ) = F ′ ( Σ ˉ s ♯ , D , D ) F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D})=F'(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,\mathsf{D}}_s,\mathsf{D}) F ( Π ♯ , D ) = F ′ ( Σ ˉ s ♯ , D , D ) everywhere. Claim 2 for this F F F is the identity of claim 3. If P ( D 0 ) = 1 P(D_0)=1 P ( D 0 ) = 1 then 1 D 0 = 1 \mathbf{1}_{D_0}=1 1 D 0 = 1 outside an event of probability zero, so, taking F ′ = 1 S F'=\mathbf{1}_S F ′ = 1 S for S S S in the product σ \sigma σ -algebra and using (N), P ( ( Σ s , W ) ∈ S ) = μ ♯ ( ( Σ ˉ s ♯ , D , D ) ∈ S ) P((\Sigma_s,W)\in S)=\mu^\sharp((\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,\mathsf{D}}_s,\mathsf{D})\in S) P (( Σ s , W ) ∈ S ) = μ ♯ (( Σ ˉ s ♯ , D , D ) ∈ S ) , the two pair maps being measurable by (M); this is the equality of the two image measures .