TheoremBase

Proof of Law Identity between the N-Agent Aggregate Path with Its Observation Record and the Synthetic Copy's Regularised Path with Its Record

lemmalem:n-agent-copy-record-law-identity-2026a
Edited byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
Verified by 0 users · Flagged by 0 users
Reason: Proof of the law identity between the N-agent aggregate path with its record and the synthetic copy's path with its record, through the record density and the per-record law identity.

Proof

Step 0 (Conventions, the path functional, and two elementary facts). Write E={1,,l}NE=\{1,\dots,l\}^N and Σ:EGN\Sigma:E\to\mathbb{G}_N, Σ(x)γ=1N#{i:xi=γ}\Sigma(x)^\gamma=\frac1N\#\{i:x^i=\gamma\}, as in Forward Equation on the Aggregate Lattice for the Reconstructed Record-Frozen N-Agent Dynamics, so that the empirical state measure of any family of {1,,l}\{1,\dots,l\}-valued agent states is its image under Σ\Sigma and lies in GN\mathbb{G}_N (we write σt=(σt1,,σtN)\sigma_t=(\sigma^1_t,\dots,\sigma^N_t), σur=(σur,1,,σur,N)\sigma^r_u=(\sigma^{r,1}_u,\dots,\sigma^{r,N}_u) and ς0=(ς01,,ς0N)\varsigma_0=(\varsigma^1_0,\dots,\varsigma^N_0) for the NN-tuples of agent states); in particular, by the derived notation of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics, Σt(ω)=Σ(σt(ω))GN\Sigma_t(\omega)=\Sigma(\sigma_t(\omega))\in\mathbb{G}_N for every ωΩ\omega\in\Omega and t[0,T]t\in[0,T], so that F(Σs,W)F'(\Sigma_s,W) in claim 3 is defined on all of Ω\Omega. For r=(k,t,v)Rr=(k,\mathbf{t},v)\in\mathbf{R} define the path functional fr:Path[0,)\mathsf{f}_r:\mathsf{Path}\to[0,\infty) by

fr(p)=(j=1kNb~vj(p(tj)))exp(N[0,T]b~tot(p(u))du),\mathsf{f}_r(p)=\Bigl(\prod_{j=1}^{k}N\,\tilde{b}^{v_j}\bigl(p(t_j-)\bigr)\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-N\int_{[0,T]}\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}\bigl(p(u)\bigr)\,du\Bigr),

with p(t)p(t-) the left limit of claim 2 of that lemma, the empty product equal to 11, exp\exp the exponential function, and the integral the Lebesgue integral over the compact interval [0,T][0,T] of the bounded measurable map ub~tot(p(u))u\mapsto\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u)) (claim 3 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals applied to the restriction of b~tot\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}} to the finite set GN\mathbb{G}_N). The map fr\mathsf{f}_r is C\mathcal{C}-measurable: each factor pb~vj(p(tj))p\mapsto\tilde{b}^{v_j}(p(t_j-)) takes finitely many values and equals yGNb~vj(y)1{p(tj)=y}\sum_{y\in\mathbb{G}_N}\tilde{b}^{v_j}(y)\mathbf{1}\{p(t_j-)=y\}, a linear combination of indicators of members of C\mathcal{C} (claim 2 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals); the map p[0,T]b~tot(p(u))dup\mapsto\int_{[0,T]}\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u))\,du is C\mathcal{C}-measurable by claim 3 of that lemma; the map texp(Nt)t\mapsto\exp(-Nt) is continuous on the real line, hence sequentially continuous (given xnxx_n\to x and ε>0\varepsilon>0, choose δ\delta from the continuity at xx and then n0n_0 with xnx<δ|x_n-x|<\delta for nn0n\ge n_0), so its composition with the latter map is measurable by Sequentially Continuous Functions of Measurable Euclidean Maps are Measurable; and finite products of measurable real-valued maps are measurable by claim 3 of Arithmetic, Absolute Values, and Pointwise Limits of Measurable Real-Valued Functions. Two elementary facts: (N) if ξ\xi is a [0,][0,\infty]-valued measurable map on a probability space and Z0Z_0 is an event of probability zero, then ξ1Z0supnn1Z0=0\int\xi\,\mathbf{1}_{Z_0}\le\sup_n\int n\,\mathbf{1}_{Z_0}=0 by the monotone convergence theorem and monotonicity, so by additivity (both from claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral) ξ=ξ1Ω\int\xi=\int\xi\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega'} for the complement Ω\Omega' of Z0Z_0; consequently two [0,][0,\infty]-valued measurable maps that agree outside an event of probability zero have the same integral. (M) The product of two [0,][0,\infty]-valued measurable maps ξ,ζ\xi,\zeta is measurable, since {ξζ>a}=q({ξ>q}{ζ>a/q})\{\xi\zeta>a\}=\bigcup_q(\{\xi>q\}\cap\{\zeta>a/q\}) over the positive rationals qq when a0a\ge0, and is the whole space when a<0a<0; and a map into a generated σ\sigma-algebra is measurable as soon as the preimages of the generators are measurable, the sets with measurable preimage forming a σ\sigma-algebra. In particular a pair map ω(Φ1(ω),Φ2(ω))\omega\mapsto(\Phi_1(\omega),\Phi_2(\omega)) into a product is measurable for the product σ\sigma-algebra as soon as its components are, the preimage of a measurable rectangle being the intersection of the two preimages.

Step 1 (Claim 1). The Σuγ\Sigma^\gamma_u are Fusys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_u-measurable by clause (iv) of Existence, Uniqueness, and Regularity for the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics, so {Σu=y}F\{\Sigma_u=y\}\in\mathcal{F} for all u[0,T]u\in[0,T] and yRly\in\mathbb{R}^l; in particular D0FD_0\in\mathcal{F}. Let ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0. By condition 1 of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics, for each ii the path tσti(ω)t\mapsto\sigma^i_t(\omega) is constant on the intervals determined by finitely many times 0<t1(i)<<tK(i)(i)T0<t^{(i)}_1<\dots<t^{(i)}_{K^{(i)}}\le T; let 0<s1<<sMT0<s_1<\dots<s_M\le T enumerate the union of these finite sets. Each of the intervals [0,s1)[0,s_1), [sj,sj+1)[s_j,s_{j+1}), [sM,T][s_M,T] (or [0,T][0,T] if M=0M=0) contains no tj(i)t^{(i)}_{j'} except possibly at its left endpoint, so it is contained in one of the constancy intervals of each σi\sigma^i; hence all σi\sigma^i, and therefore Σ(ω)=Σ(σ(ω))\Sigma_\cdot(\omega)=\Sigma(\sigma_\cdot(\omega)), are constant on it. Thus Π(ω)Path\Pi(\omega)\in\mathsf{Path}, with values in GN\mathbb{G}_N by Step 0; for ωΩ0\omega\notin\Omega_0, Π(ω)\Pi(\omega) is constant. For a generator {p:p(u)=y}\{p:p(u)=y\} of C\mathcal{C}, {Π{p:p(u)=y}}=(Ω0{Σu=y})((ΩΩ0){ω:x0=y})F\{\Pi\in\{p:p(u)=y\}\}=(\Omega_0\cap\{\Sigma_u=y\})\cup((\Omega\setminus\Omega_0)\cap\{\omega:x_0=y\})\in\mathcal{F}, the last set being ΩΩ0\Omega\setminus\Omega_0 or empty; so Π\Pi is measurable by (M), Ω0\Omega_0 being an event by Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics. For Π\Pi^\sharp: by claim 3 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record, the paths Σˉ,r(ω)\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat) are the regularised recursion paths of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood for the clocks P\mathsf{P}^\sharp; by claim 2(a) of that lemma each such path takes values in GN\mathbb{G}_N and is constant on [θk,θk+1)[\theta_k,\theta_{k+1}) (k<Kk<K) and on [θK,T][\theta_K,T] for the times 0=ϑ0<ϑ1<<ϑKT0=\vartheta_0<\vartheta_1<\dots<\vartheta_K\le T of the recursion (written θk\theta_k there; here θ\theta is reserved for the Rd\mathbb{R}^d-coordinate of Ω\Omega^\sharp), so it lies in Path\mathsf{Path} with the times ϑ1,,ϑK\vartheta_1,\dots,\vartheta_K. By claim 2(d) of that lemma, for each γ\gamma the map (t,r,ω)Σˉt,r,γ(ω)(t,r,\omega^\flat)\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r,\gamma}_t(\omega^\flat) is B[0,T](RF)\mathcal{B}_{[0,T]}\otimes(\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat)-measurable; its section at t=ut=u is RF\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat-measurable by claim 3 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable, and its composition with the rearrangement ((ω,θ),r)(r,ω)((\omega^\flat,\theta),r)\mapsto(r,\omega^\flat), measurable from F\mathcal{F}^\sharp to RF\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat by claim 5 of that lemma, is F\mathcal{F}^\sharp-measurable. Hence {Π{p:p(u)=y}}=γ{(ω,θ,r):Σˉu,r,γ(ω)=yγ}F\{\Pi^\sharp\in\{p:p(u)=y\}\}=\bigcap_{\gamma}\{(\omega^\flat,\theta,r):\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r,\gamma}_u(\omega^\flat)=y^\gamma\}\in\mathcal{F}^\sharp, and Π\Pi^\sharp is measurable by (M). Finally WW is measurable by clause (f) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records, and D\mathsf{D} by claim 4 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record.

Step 2 (The NN-agent side). Let T\mathcal{T} be the σ\sigma-algebra generated by the initial states and the transition-clock variables, as in Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records, and define ΠG\Pi^G on R×Ω\mathbf{R}\times\Omega by ΠG(r,ω)(u)=Σur(ω)\Pi^G(r,\omega)(u)=\Sigma^r_u(\omega) for (r,ω)G(r,\omega)\in G and ΠG(r,ω)(u)=x0\Pi^G(r,\omega)(u)=x_0 otherwise. For (r,ω)G(r,\omega)\in G, clause (c) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records gives ηur,i,γ(ω)=1{σur,i(ω)=γ}\eta^{r,i,\gamma}_u(\omega)=\mathbf{1}\{\sigma^{r,i}_u(\omega)=\gamma\}, so Σur(ω)=Σ(σur(ω))GN\Sigma^r_u(\omega)=\Sigma(\sigma^r_u(\omega))\in\mathbb{G}_N, and each path uσur,i(ω)u\mapsto\sigma^{r,i}_u(\omega) is piecewise constant in the sense of condition 1 of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics; the union-of-times argument of Step 1 shows ΠG(r,ω)Path\Pi^G(r,\omega)\in\mathsf{Path}. Off GG the path is constant. For a generator {p:p(u)=y}\{p:p(u)=y\}, {ΠG{p:p(u)=y}}=(G{(r,ω):Σur(ω)=y})(((R×Ω)G){(r,ω):x0=y})\{\Pi^G\in\{p:p(u)=y\}\}=(G\cap\{(r,\omega):\Sigma^r_u(\omega)=y\})\cup(((\mathbf{R}\times\Omega)\setminus G)\cap\{(r,\omega):x_0=y\}); here GRTG\in\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T}, and (r,ω)ηur,i,γ(ω)(r,\omega)\mapsto\eta^{r,i,\gamma}_u(\omega) is RT\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T}-measurable by clause (a) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records and claim 4 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable (the insertion (r,ω)((r,u),ω)(r,\omega)\mapsto((r,u),\omega) with the middle coordinate fixed), so {(r,ω):Σur(ω)=y}=γ{(r,ω):1Niηur,i,γ(ω)=yγ}RT\{(r,\omega):\Sigma^r_u(\omega)=y\}=\bigcap_\gamma\{(r,\omega):\frac1N\sum_i\eta^{r,i,\gamma}_u(\omega)=y^\gamma\}\in\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T}. Thus ΠG\Pi^G is measurable with respect to RT\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T} and C\mathcal{C} by (M). Put D0={ω:Σ(ς01(ω),,ς0N(ω))=x0}D'_0=\{\omega:\Sigma(\varsigma^1_0(\omega),\dots,\varsigma^N_0(\omega))=x_0\}, a member of T\mathcal{T} since the ς0i\varsigma^i_0 are among the generators of T\mathcal{T}, and define

H(r,ω)=1D0(ω)F(ΠG(r,ω),r)((r,ω)R×Ω),H(r,\omega)=\mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega)\,F\bigl(\Pi^G(r,\omega),r\bigr)\qquad((r,\omega)\in\mathbf{R}\times\Omega),

which is RT\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T}-measurable and [0,][0,\infty]-valued: the pair map (r,ω)(ΠG(r,ω),r)(r,\omega)\mapsto(\Pi^G(r,\omega),r) is measurable into CR\mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} by (M), so FF composed with it is measurable, and the factor 1D0(ω)\mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega) is the indicator of the rectangle R×D0\mathbf{R}\times D'_0.

Reduction to HH. Let Ω1\Omega_1 be the intersection of Ω0\Omega_0 with the event of probability one of clause (f) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records; P(Ω1)=1P(\Omega_1)=1. For ωΩ1\omega\in\Omega_1: (W(ω),ω)G(W(\omega),\omega)\in G and ηui,γ(ω)=ηuW(ω),i,γ(ω)\eta^{i,\gamma}_u(\omega)=\eta^{W(\omega),i,\gamma}_u(\omega) for all u,i,γu,i,\gamma, so Σu(ω)=ΣuW(ω)(ω)\Sigma_u(\omega)=\Sigma^{W(\omega)}_u(\omega) for all uu and Π(ω)=ΠG(W(ω),ω)\Pi(\omega)=\Pi^G(W(\omega),\omega); and σ0i(ω)=ς0i(ω)\sigma^i_0(\omega)=\varsigma^i_0(\omega) by condition 1 of Solution of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics, so Σ0(ω)=Σ(ς0(ω))\Sigma_0(\omega)=\Sigma(\varsigma_0(\omega)) and 1D0(ω)=1D0(ω)\mathbf{1}_{D_0}(\omega)=\mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega). Hence 1D0F(Π,W)=H(W,)\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)=H(W,\cdot) on Ω1\Omega_1, and by (N)

E[1D0F(Π,W)]=E[H(W,)].(1)\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)\bigr]=\mathbb{E}\bigl[H(W,\cdot)\bigr].\qquad(1)

The record density. Let f:R×Ω[0,)f:\mathbf{R}\times\Omega\to[0,\infty) be the record density kernel of Conditional Density of the Observation Record Given the Initial States and Transition Clocks for the fixed reconstruction data. By claim 1 of that lemma ρ\rho is finite, hence σ\sigma-finite; by claim 2, ff is RT\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T}-measurable; and claim 3 (with Z=1CZ=\mathbf{1}_C and g=1Ag=\mathbf{1}_A) gives the hypothesis of A Conditional Density Identity for Products Extends to Jointly Measurable Integrands for the sub-σ\sigma-algebra T\mathcal{T}, the map WW and the kernel ff. That lemma yields

E[H(W,)]=E[RH(r,)f(r,)ρ(dr)]=RE[H(r,)f(r,)]ρ(dr),(2)\mathbb{E}\bigl[H(W,\cdot)\bigr]=\mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_{\mathbf{R}}H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)\,\rho(dr)\Bigr]=\int_{\mathbf{R}}\mathbb{E}\bigl[H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)\bigr]\,\rho(dr),\qquad(2)

the second equality by the Tonelli theorem on the product of (R,R,ρ)(\mathbf{R},\mathcal{R},\rho) and (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P), the map HfHf being measurable for RTRF\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{T}\subseteq\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F} (every measurable rectangle of the former is one of the latter) and by (M); both iterated integrals equal the integral against the product measure, and Tonelli also gives the R\mathcal{R}-measurability of rE[H(r,)f(r,)]r\mapsto\mathbb{E}[H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)].

The integrand at a fixed record. Fix r=(k,t,v)Rr=(k,\mathbf{t},v)\in\mathbf{R} and let Σ^r\hat{\Sigma}^r, Ωr\Omega^r and the map Πr\Pi^r be those of Forward Equation on the Aggregate Lattice for the Reconstructed Record-Frozen N-Agent Dynamics and of claim 2 of Law Identity between the Reconstructed Record-Frozen Aggregate and the Aggregate Recursion Driven by the Same Control Path with T=TT'=T and the point x0x_0 (Πr\Pi^r is defined on the NN-agent side alone: it is the path uΣ^uru\mapsto\hat{\Sigma}^r_u on Ωr\Omega^r and the constant path x0x_0 off Ωr\Omega^r). For ωΩr\omega\in\Omega^r we have (r,ω)G(r,\omega)\in G (clause (d) of Measurable Reconstruction of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics from Observation Records), hence: ΠG(r,ω)\Pi^G(r,\omega) is the path uΣur(ω)=Σ^ur(ω)u\mapsto\Sigma^r_u(\omega)=\hat{\Sigma}^r_u(\omega) (claim 1 of Forward Equation on the Aggregate Lattice for the Reconstructed Record-Frozen N-Agent Dynamics), which is Πr(ω)\Pi^r(\omega); 1D0(ω)=1{Σ^0r(ω)=x0}\mathbf{1}_{D'_0}(\omega)=\mathbf{1}\{\hat{\Sigma}^r_0(\omega)=x_0\}, because σ0r,i(ω)=ς0i(ω)\sigma^{r,i}_0(\omega)=\varsigma^i_0(\omega) by clause (c); and, by the definition of the kernel on GG,

f(r,ω)=(j=1kNb~vj(Σtjr(ω)))exp(N[0,T]b~tot(Σur(ω))du)=fr(ΠG(r,ω)),f(r,\omega)=\Bigl(\prod_{j=1}^{k}N\,\tilde{b}^{v_j}\bigl(\Sigma^r_{t_j-}(\omega)\bigr)\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-N\int_{[0,T]}\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}\bigl(\Sigma^r_u(\omega)\bigr)\,du\Bigr)=\mathsf{f}_r\bigl(\Pi^G(r,\omega)\bigr),

since the left limit Σtjr(ω)\Sigma^r_{t_j-}(\omega) of the path (the common value on some [tjδ,tj)[t_j-\delta,t_j)) is the left limit p(tj)p(t_j-) of claim 2 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals for p=ΠG(r,ω)p=\Pi^G(r,\omega). Put Φr(p)=F(p,r)fr(p)\Phi_r(p)=F(p,r)\,\mathsf{f}_r(p) for pPathp\in\mathsf{Path}; pF(p,r)p\mapsto F(p,r) is C\mathcal{C}-measurable by claim 3 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable (section at rr), so Φr\Phi_r is C\mathcal{C}-measurable by Step 0 and (M). Since P(Ωr)=1P(\Omega^r)=1, (N) gives

E[H(r,)f(r,)]=E[1{Σ^0r=x0}Φr(Πr)].(3)\mathbb{E}\bigl[H(r,\cdot)f(r,\cdot)\bigr]=\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}\{\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0\}\,\Phi_r(\Pi^r)\bigr].\qquad(3)

Transfer to the copy clocks. Apply Law Identity between the Reconstructed Record-Frozen Aggregate and the Aggregate Recursion Driven by the Same Control Path with T=TT'=T, the point x0x_0, and the copy setting consisting of the probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega^\flat,\mathcal{F}^\flat,P^\flat) carrying the copy clocks P\mathsf{P}^\sharp, that is, the space called (Ω,F,P)(\Omega^\sharp,\mathcal{F}^\sharp,P^\sharp) in that lemma is here (Ω,F,P)(\Omega^\flat,\mathcal{F}^\flat,P^\flat), its conflict-free event Ω0\Omega^\sharp_0 is here Ω0,r\Omega^\flat_{0,r}, its regularised path Σˉ\bar{\Sigma}^\sharp is here Σˉ,r\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}, and its map Π\Pi^\sharp is here written Π,r\Pi^{\flat,r}, while the symbols Ω\Omega^\sharp, F\mathcal{F}^\sharp and Π\Pi^\sharp keep the meanings fixed in the statement: the copy clocks are Poisson clocks with horizon RR with independent generated σ\sigma-algebras by claims 2 and 3 of The Copy Clocks Are Independent Poisson Clocks with Horizon R, and Every Record Is Almost Surely Conflict-Free for Them, R>NBTR>NBT by hypothesis, the aggregate recursion for (P(ω),ar,x0)(\mathsf{P}^\sharp(\omega^\flat),a^r,x_0) has the regularised recursion path uΣˉu,r(ω)u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat) (the same regularisation, replacing values outside GN\mathbb{G}_N by x0x_0, is used in Forward Equation for the Aggregate Recursion Driven by Independent Poisson Clocks with a Horizon and in claim 2 of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood), and its conflict-free event Ω0,r={ω:(r,ω)G}\Omega^\flat_{0,r}=\{\omega^\flat:(r,\omega^\flat)\in\mathsf{G}^\sharp\} has P(Ω0,r)=1P^\flat(\Omega^\flat_{0,r})=1 by claim 4 of The Copy Clocks Are Independent Poisson Clocks with Horizon R, and Every Record Is Almost Surely Conflict-Free for Them. Claim 2 of Law Identity between the Reconstructed Record-Frozen Aggregate and the Aggregate Recursion Driven by the Same Control Path gives, with Π,r\Pi^{\flat,r} (equal to uΣˉu,r(ω)u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat) on Ω0,r\Omega^\flat_{0,r}),

E[1{Σ^0r=x0}Φr(Πr)]=P(Σ^0r=x0)ΩΦr(Π,r)dP=P(D0)ΩF(Σˉ,r(ω),r)fr(Σˉ,r(ω))P(dω),(4)\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}\{\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0\}\,\Phi_r(\Pi^r)\bigr]=P(\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0)\int_{\Omega^\flat}\Phi_r(\Pi^{\flat,r})\,dP^\flat=P(D_0)\int_{\Omega^\flat}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\mathsf{f}_r\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat),\qquad(4)

where Σˉ,r(ω)\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat) denotes the path uΣˉu,r(ω)u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat), using (N) on Ω\Omega^\flat (the integrands agree on Ω0,r\Omega^\flat_{0,r}; the second integrand is F\mathcal{F}^\flat-measurable as Φr\Phi_r composed with the section at θ\theta and rr of the measurable map Π\Pi^\sharp of Step 1, claims 2 and 4 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable), and using P(Σ^0r=x0)=P(D0)=P(D0)P(\hat{\Sigma}^r_0=x_0)=P(D'_0)=P(D_0), the three events agreeing on ΩrΩ1\Omega^r\cap\Omega_1. The map (r,ω)F(Σˉ,r(ω),r)fr(Σˉ,r(ω))(r,\omega^\flat)\mapsto F(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r)\,\mathsf{f}_r(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)) is RF\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat-measurable: the pair map (r,ω)(Σˉ,r(ω),r)(r,\omega^\flat)\mapsto(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r) is measurable into CR\mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} by (M), the preimage of a generator {p:p(u)=y}\{p:p(u)=y\} being {(r,ω):Σˉu,r(ω)=y}RF\{(r,\omega^\flat):\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat)=y\}\in\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat as shown in Step 1, and the second factor equals ,ω(r)\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r) by the identification proved in Step 3 below (which does not depend on this step), a map that is RF\mathcal{R}\otimes\mathcal{F}^\flat-measurable by claim 3 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record; hence, by the Tonelli theorem, rΩF(Σˉ,r(ω),r)fr(Σˉ,r(ω))P(dω)r\mapsto\int_{\Omega^\flat}F(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r)\,\mathsf{f}_r(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat))\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat) is R\mathcal{R}-measurable. Combining (1)--(4) and pulling the constant P(D0)[0,1]P(D_0)\in[0,1] out of the ρ\rho-integral (claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral; when P(D0)=0P(D_0)=0 the left side of (1) vanishes by (N) and the right side of the display below vanishes by the convention 0=00\cdot\infty=0),

E[1D0F(Π,W)]=P(D0)R(ΩF(Σˉ,r(ω),r)fr(Σˉ,r(ω))P(dω))ρ(dr).(5)\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)\bigr]=P(D_0)\int_{\mathbf{R}}\Bigl(\int_{\Omega^\flat}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\mathsf{f}_r\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat)\Bigr)\rho(dr).\qquad(5)

Step 3 (The copy side). The map (ω,θ,r)(Π(ω,θ,r),r)(\omega^\flat,\theta,r)\mapsto(\Pi^\sharp(\omega^\flat,\theta,r),r) is measurable from F\mathcal{F}^\sharp to CR\mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} by Step 1 and (M), so F(Π,D)F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D}) is F\mathcal{F}^\sharp-measurable. By claim 4 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record, μ\mu^\sharp is the measure with density q(ω,θ,r)=φη(θK(ω)/N),ω(r)\mathsf{q}^\sharp(\omega^\flat,\theta,r)=\varphi_\eta(\theta-\mathsf{K}(\omega^\flat)/\sqrt{N})\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r) with respect to (Pλd)ρ(P^\flat\otimes\lambda_d)\otimes\rho, so by claim 3 of Image Measures, Measures with Densities, and Change of Variables and the Tonelli theorem on the product of the σ\sigma-finite spaces (Ω×Rd,FB(Rd),Pλd)(\Omega^\flat\times\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{F}^\flat\otimes\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d),P^\flat\otimes\lambda_d) (the product measure of the finite PP^\flat and the σ\sigma-finite λd\lambda_d, itself σ\sigma-finite) and (R,R,ρ)(\mathbf{R},\mathcal{R},\rho) (ρ\rho finite),

ΩF(Π,D)dμ=R(Ω×RdF(Σˉ,r(ω),r)φη(θK(ω)/N),ω(r)(Pλd)(d(ω,θ)))ρ(dr).\int_{\Omega^\sharp}F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D})\,d\mu^\sharp=\int_{\mathbf{R}}\Bigl(\int_{\Omega^\flat\times\mathbb{R}^d}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\varphi_\eta\bigl(\theta-\mathsf{K}(\omega^\flat)/\sqrt{N}\bigr)\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)\,(P^\flat\otimes\lambda_d)(d(\omega^\flat,\theta))\Bigr)\rho(dr).

For fixed rr the inner integrand is FB(Rd)\mathcal{F}^\flat\otimes\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d)-measurable (claim 3 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable), and Tonelli on the product of (Ω,F,P)(\Omega^\flat,\mathcal{F}^\flat,P^\flat) and (Rd,B(Rd),λd)(\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d),\lambda_d) writes the inner integral as Ω(Rdκ(ω)φη(θK(ω)/N)λd(dθ))P(dω)\int_{\Omega^\flat}\bigl(\int_{\mathbb{R}^d}\kappa(\omega^\flat)\,\varphi_\eta(\theta-\mathsf{K}(\omega^\flat)/\sqrt{N})\,\lambda_d(d\theta)\bigr)P^\flat(d\omega^\flat) with κ(ω)=F(Σˉ,r(ω),r),ω(r)[0,]\kappa(\omega^\flat)=F(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r)\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)\in[0,\infty]. For every aRda\in\mathbb{R}^d, Rdφη(θa)λd(dθ)=1\int_{\mathbb{R}^d}\varphi_\eta(\theta-a)\,\lambda_d(d\theta)=1 by claim 1 of The Gaussian Smoothing Weight: Normalization, Derivatives, Exponential Tilting, Moments, and First-Order Remainder; hence Rdκφη(θa)λd(dθ)=κ\int_{\mathbb{R}^d}\kappa\,\varphi_\eta(\theta-a)\,\lambda_d(d\theta)=\kappa for κ[0,)\kappa\in[0,\infty) by claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral, and also for κ=\kappa=\infty, since then the integrand is the supremum of the nondecreasing sequence nφη(θa)n\varphi_\eta(\theta-a) (φη>0\varphi_\eta>0 everywhere by claim 1 of The Gaussian Smoothing Weight: Normalization, Derivatives, Exponential Tilting, Moments, and First-Order Remainder) and the monotone convergence theorem gives supnn=\sup_nn=\infty. Therefore

ΩF(Π,D)dμ=R(ΩF(Σˉ,r(ω),r),ω(r)P(dω))ρ(dr).(6)\int_{\Omega^\sharp}F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D})\,d\mu^\sharp=\int_{\mathbf{R}}\Bigl(\int_{\Omega^\flat}F\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat),r\bigr)\,\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)\,P^\flat(d\omega^\flat)\Bigr)\rho(dr).\qquad(6)

The likelihood is the path functional. Fix r=(k,t,v)r=(k,\mathbf{t},v) and ω\omega^\flat, and write pp for the path uΣˉu,r(ω)u\mapsto\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_u(\omega^\flat). By claim 3 of The Synthetic Copy: Independent Cell Structure, Deterministic-Count Clocks, the Copy Measure, and the Smoothed Joint Density of Parameter and Observation Record, ,ω\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat} is the record-driven likelihood of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood for the clocks P\mathsf{P}^\sharp, that is, by claim 4 of that lemma and Likelihood of a Causal Intensity on the Observation Record Space, the likelihood of the causal intensity λtυ(r)=Nb~υ(Σˉt,r(ω))\lambda^{\upsilon}_t(r)=N\tilde{b}^\upsilon(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{t-}(\omega^\flat)) of its claim 3, with total intensity λutot(r)=Nb~tot(Σˉu,r(ω))\lambda^{\mathrm{tot}}_u(r)=N\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{u-}(\omega^\flat)):

,ω(r)=(j=1kNb~vj(Σˉtj,r(ω)))exp([0,T]Nb~tot(Σˉu,r(ω))du).\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)=\Bigl(\prod_{j=1}^{k}N\,\tilde{b}^{v_j}\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{t_j-}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-\int_{[0,T]}N\,\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}\bigl(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{u-}(\omega^\flat)\bigr)\,du\Bigr).

The left limit Σˉt,r(ω)\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_{t-}(\omega^\flat) of claim 2(b) of The Record-Driven Causal Intensity of the Open-Loop Aggregate Solution: Joint Measurability of the Record-Frozen Control, the Regularised Recursion Path, Non-Anticipation, and Measurability of the Likelihood is defined by the same property as the left limit p(t)p(t-) of claim 2 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals, so they coincide; and by claim 2(b) the maps ub~tot(p(u))u\mapsto\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u-)) and ub~tot(p(u))u\mapsto\tilde{b}^{\mathrm{tot}}(p(u)) on [0,T][0,T] (the first read with p(0)=x0p(0-)=x_0, which is p(0)p(0): the recursion has ϑ0=0<ϑ1\vartheta_0=0<\vartheta_1 and x(0)=x0GNx^{(0)}=x_0\in\mathbb{G}_N, so Σˉ0,r(ω)=x0\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}_0(\omega^\flat)=x_0) agree outside the finite set {ϑ1,,ϑK}\{\vartheta_1,\dots,\vartheta_K\}, which is a λ[0,T]\lambda_{[0,T]}-null set by Existence of Lebesgue Measure on the Real Line (points have Lebesgue measure zero); both maps are nonnegative and B[0,T]\mathcal{B}_{[0,T]}-measurable (the first as the integrand of the likelihood, the second by claim 3 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals), so their integrals over [0,T][0,T] agree by claim 6 of Restricted Lebesgue Measure and Integral Toolkit on a Compact Interval, applied to each with the co-null set DD equal to the complement of {ϑ1,,ϑK}\{\vartheta_1,\dots,\vartheta_K\}, on which the two products with 1D\mathbf{1}_D coincide. Pulling out the constant NN (claim 1 of Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral), we conclude ,ω(r)=fr(p)\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)=\mathsf{f}_r(p) for every rr and ω\omega^\flat.

Step 4 (Conclusion). Substituting ,ω(r)=fr(Σˉ,r(ω))\ell^{\sharp,\omega^\flat}(r)=\mathsf{f}_r(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,r}(\omega^\flat)) into (6) shows that the right side of (6), multiplied by P(D0)P(D_0), is the right side of (5). This proves claim 2. For claim 3, let s[0,T]s\in[0,T] and FF' be as stated and put F(p,r)=F(p(s),r)F(p,r)=F'(p(s),r); the map (p,r)(p(s),r)(p,r)\mapsto(p(s),r) is measurable from CR\mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R} to the product of the σ\sigma-algebra of all subsets of GN\mathbb{G}_N and R\mathcal{R} (its components are the evaluation at ss, measurable by claim 1 of The Space of Piecewise Constant Paths in a Finite Set: Measurability of Evaluations, Restrictions, Left Limits, and Occupation Integrals composed with the coordinate projection of claim 5 of Sections of Product-Measurable Sets and Maps Are Measurable, and Insertion Maps into Products Are Measurable, and the other coordinate projection), so FF is CR\mathcal{C}\otimes\mathcal{R}-measurable. On Ω0\Omega_0, F(Π,W)=F(Σs,W)F(\Pi,W)=F'(\Sigma_s,W), so E[1D0F(Π,W)]=E[1D0F(Σs,W)]\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F(\Pi,W)]=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_{D_0}F'(\Sigma_s,W)] by (N) (the map ωF(Σs(ω),W(ω))\omega\mapsto F'(\Sigma_s(\omega),W(\omega)) being F\mathcal{F}-measurable by (M), as {Σs=y}F\{\Sigma_s=y\}\in\mathcal{F}); and F(Π,D)=F(Σˉs,D,D)F(\Pi^\sharp,\mathsf{D})=F'(\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,\mathsf{D}}_s,\mathsf{D}) everywhere. Claim 2 for this FF is the identity of claim 3. If P(D0)=1P(D_0)=1 then 1D0=1\mathbf{1}_{D_0}=1 outside an event of probability zero, so, taking F=1SF'=\mathbf{1}_S for SS in the product σ\sigma-algebra and using (N), P((Σs,W)S)=μ((Σˉs,D,D)S)P((\Sigma_s,W)\in S)=\mu^\sharp((\bar{\Sigma}^{\sharp,\mathsf{D}}_s,\mathsf{D})\in S), the two pair maps being measurable by (M); this is the equality of the two image measures.

Please log in to copy this version.

Citations

Loading…

Dependency Graph

0 prerequisites

Comments

Loading…