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Proof of The Multivariate van Trees Inequality

theoremthm:van-trees-inequality-2026b
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Reason: Carried onto thm:van-trees-inequality-2026b. Step 2(i) now applies thm:ftc-part2-closed-interval-2026a via lem:restriction-continuity-derivative-2026a and lem:interval-lebesgue-toolkit-2026b, replacing an unreadable FTC citation and the translation-invariance argument; Step 2(ii) uses lem:derivative-arithmetic-1d-2026a; Step 3 derives the slice derivative directly from def:partial-derivative-euclidean-2026a and its continuity from clause 1 of def:ck-map-euclidean-2026a.

Proof

Throughout, λ\lambda, B(R)\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}), Bl\mathcal{B}_l, λl\lambda_l and the insertion maps Ψi\Psi_i are those of Finite Products of Lebesgue Measure and Coordinate Integration on Rl\mathbb{R}^l; write κ=λlμ\kappa=\lambda_l\otimes\mu. Expectations are those of Expectation, Variance, and Moments, and integrals those of Lebesgue Integral of a Nonnegative Measurable Function and Integrable Function and the Lebesgue Integral. For l=1l=1 we use throughout the conventions of Finite Products of Lebesgue Measure and Coordinate Integration on Rl\mathbb{R}^l: a pair (θ,y)(\theta',y) reads as yy, λl1μ\lambda_{l-1}\otimes\mu as μ\mu, and Ψ1(t,y)=(t,y)\Psi_1(t,y)=(t,y); every step below then applies verbatim, the case iji\ne j in Step 4(b) being vacuous.

Step 1 (change of variables). (Θ,D)(\Theta,D) is measurable and QQ is its image measure, and by assumption (i), QQ is the measure with density pp with respect to κ\kappa. Hence claims 2 and 3 of Image Measures, Measures with Densities, and Change of Variables give: for every BlG\mathcal{B}_l\otimes\mathcal{G}-measurable g:Rl×Y[0,]g:\mathbb{R}^{l}\times Y\to[0,\infty],

Ωg(Θ,D)dP=gdQ=gpdκin [0,];\int_{\Omega}g\circ(\Theta,D)\,dP=\int g\,dQ=\int g\,p\,d\kappa\qquad\text{in }[0,\infty];

and for measurable g:Rl×YRg:\mathbb{R}^{l}\times Y\to\mathbb{R}, the random variable g(Θ,D)g\circ(\Theta,D) is integrable with respect to PP if and only if gpgp is integrable with respect to κ\kappa, in which case E[g(Θ,D)]=gpdκ\mathbb{E}[g(\Theta,D)]=\int gp\,d\kappa. Taking g1g\equiv1: pdκ=Q(Rl×Y)=P(Ω)=1\int p\,d\kappa=Q(\mathbb{R}^{l}\times Y)=P(\Omega)=1.

Step 2 (a one-dimensional vanishing lemma). Let g:RRg:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R} be differentiable at every point of R\mathbb{R}, regarded as an interval each of whose points xx is an interior point (as x1<x<x+1x-1<x<x+1 with x1,x+1Rx-1,x+1\in\mathbb{R}), let gg and its derivative gg' be continuous on R\mathbb{R} as maps from the real line with the absolute value metric into itself, and let gg and gg' be integrable with respect to λ\lambda. (They are measurable: for continuous u:RRu:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R} and real aa, each point of {u>a}\{u>a\} has an open interval around it inside the set, by continuity, so {u>a}\{u>a\} is open and hence lies in the Borel σ\sigma-algebra.) Then:

(i) Rgdλ=0\int_{\mathbb{R}}g'\,d\lambda=0.

(ii) If moreover ttg(t)t\mapsto t\,g(t) and ttg(t)t\mapsto t\,g'(t) are integrable with respect to λ\lambda, then Rtg(t)dλ(t)=Rgdλ\int_{\mathbb{R}}t\,g'(t)\,d\lambda(t)=-\int_{\mathbb{R}}g\,d\lambda.

Proof of (i). Let a<ba<b be real and write [a,b][a,b] for the closed interval they determine, regarded as a subset of the real line with the absolute value metric. The restrictions of gg and of gg' to [a,b][a,b] are continuous on [a,b][a,b] by claim 1 of the restriction lemma. By claim 3 of the interval toolkit, the restriction of gg' is therefore Riemann integrable on [a,b][a,b] with abg(t)dt=[a,b]gdλ[a,b]\int_a^bg'(t)\,dt=\int_{[a,b]}g'\,d\lambda_{[a,b]}, and by claim 2 of the same lemma the latter integral is Rg1[a,b]dλ\int_{\mathbb{R}}g'\,\mathbf{1}_{[a,b]}\,d\lambda, since the zero extension of the restriction of gg' is g1[a,b]g'\mathbf{1}_{[a,b]}. Moreover R\mathbb{R} is an interval containing [a,b][a,b] and every xx with a<x<ba<x<b is an interior point of [a,b][a,b], so claim 2 of the restriction lemma makes the restriction of gg differentiable at every such xx, with derivative g(x)g'(x). Applying the second fundamental theorem of calculus to the restrictions of gg and gg' gives g(b)g(a)=abg(t)dtg(b)-g(a)=\int_a^bg'(t)\,dt. Thus

g(b)g(a)=Rg1[a,b]dλ(a<b).()g(b)-g(a)=\int_{\mathbb{R}}g'\,\mathbf{1}_{[a,b]}\,d\lambda\qquad(a<b).\tag{$*$}

As nn\to\infty through the natural numbers, g1[0,n]g1[0,)g'\mathbf{1}_{[0,n]}\to g'\mathbf{1}_{[0,\infty)} pointwise, dominated by the integrable g|g'|, so Dominated Convergence Theorem and (*) give g(n)c+:=g(0)+g1[0,)dλg(n)\to c_+:=g(0)+\int g'\mathbf{1}_{[0,\infty)}\,d\lambda. Moreover, by (*) and monotonicity, supt[n,n+1]g(t)g(n)g1[n,)dλ0\sup_{t\in[n,n+1]}|g(t)-g(n)|\le\int|g'|\mathbf{1}_{[n,\infty)}\,d\lambda\to0 (dominated convergence again), so g(t)c+g(t)\to c_+ as tt\to\infty. If c+0c_+\ne0, there is R0>0R_0>0 with g(t)c+/2|g(t)|\ge|c_+|/2 for all tR0t\ge R_0; then for every natural n>R0n>R_0, monotonicity, the integral of simple functions, and Existence of Lebesgue Measure on the Real Line give gdλ(c+/2)λ([R0,n])=(c+/2)(nR0)\int|g|\,d\lambda\ge(|c_+|/2)\,\lambda([R_0,n])=(|c_+|/2)(n-R_0)\to\infty, contradicting integrability of gg; so c+=0c_+=0. Symmetrically, g(n)=g(0)g1[n,0]dλg(-n)=g(0)-\int g'\mathbf{1}_{[-n,0]}\,d\lambda converges to a limit cc_-, g(t)cg(t)\to c_- as tt\to-\infty, and c=0c_-=0. Finally, by dominated convergence and (*),

Rgdλ=limng1[n,n]dλ=limn(g(n)g(n))=c+c=0.\int_{\mathbb{R}}g'\,d\lambda=\lim_{n}\int g'\,\mathbf{1}_{[-n,n]}\,d\lambda=\lim_{n}\bigl(g(n)-g(-n)\bigr)=c_+-c_-=0 .

Proof of (ii). h(t)=tg(t)h(t)=t\,g(t) is differentiable at every point with h(t)=g(t)+tg(t)h'(t)=g(t)+t\,g'(t) by claim 3 (the product rule) of Sum, Constant Multiple, and Product Rules for One-Dimensional Derivatives (the map ttt\mapsto t has derivative 11 directly from the definition of the derivative); hh and hh' are continuous, by claims 2, 3 and 5 of the continuity of sums and products of real-valued functions on a metric space together with the continuity of the identity map ttt\mapsto t (for which δ=ε\delta=\varepsilon works); hh is integrable by assumption, and hh' is integrable as a sum of integrable functions (Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral). Part (i) applied to hh gives (g(t)+tg(t))dλ(t)=0\int(g(t)+t\,g'(t))\,d\lambda(t)=0, and linearity gives (ii).

Step 3 (slices of the density). Fix i{1,,l}i\in\{1,\dots,l\}. For (θ,y)Rl1×Y(\theta',y)\in\mathbb{R}^{l-1}\times Y and tRt\in\mathbb{R} put gθ,y(t)=p(Ψi(t,(θ,y)))g_{\theta',y}(t)=p\bigl(\Psi_i(t,(\theta',y))\bigr), and write Ψi(t,(θ,y))=(θ(t),y)\Psi_i(t,(\theta',y))=(\theta(t),y), so that θ(t)Rl\theta(t)\in\mathbb{R}^{l} has iith coordinate tt and all other coordinates independent of tt, and gθ,y(t)=p(θ(t),y)g_{\theta',y}(t)=p(\theta(t),y). Since θ(t)\theta(t) and θ(t0)\theta(t_0) differ only in the iith coordinate,

k=1l(θ(t)kθ(t0)k)2=(tt0)2(t,t0R).\sum_{k=1}^{l}\bigl(\theta(t)_k-\theta(t_0)_k\bigr)^2=(t-t_0)^2\qquad(t,t_0\in\mathbb{R}).

By assumption (ii), gθ,yg_{\theta',y} is strictly positive.

Differentiability. Fix t0Rt_0\in\mathbb{R}. By assumption (ii) the function p(,y)p(\cdot,y) is of class C1C^1 on Rl\mathbb{R}^{l}, so by clauses 1 and 3 of the definition of a CkC^k map its partial derivative with respect to the iith variable exists at θ(t0)\theta(t_0). Unwinding that definition: for every real ε>0\varepsilon>0 there is a real δ>0\delta>0 such that every real hh with 0<h<δ0<|h|<\delta satisfies

p(θ(t0+h),y)p(θ(t0),y)hip(θ(t0),y)<ε,\left|\frac{p\bigl(\theta(t_0+h),y\bigr)-p\bigl(\theta(t_0),y\bigr)}{h}-\partial_ip\bigl(\theta(t_0),y\bigr)\right|<\varepsilon ,

because the point obtained from θ(t0)\theta(t_0) by increasing its iith coordinate by hh is exactly θ(t0+h)\theta(t_0+h). The further requirement in that definition, that the incremented point belong to the domain, is automatic here because the domain is all of Rl\mathbb{R}^{l}; what remains is verbatim the assertion that gθ,yg_{\theta',y} is differentiable at t0t_0 with

gθ,y(t0)=ip(θ(t0),y)=ip(Ψi(t0,(θ,y))),g_{\theta',y}'(t_0)=\partial_i p\bigl(\theta(t_0),y\bigr)=\partial_i p\bigl(\Psi_i(t_0,(\theta',y))\bigr),

the value being unambiguous by Uniqueness of the Partial Derivative on a Euclidean Open Set.

Continuity. By clause 1 of the same definition, p(,y)p(\cdot,y) and ip(,y)\partial_ip(\cdot,y) are continuous at every point of Rl\mathbb{R}^{l}. Let uu be either of them, let t0Rt_0\in\mathbb{R} and let ε>0\varepsilon>0 be real; continuity of uu at θ(t0)\theta(t_0) supplies a real δ>0\delta>0 such that every wRlw\in\mathbb{R}^{l} with k(wkθ(t0)k)2<δ2\sum_k(w_k-\theta(t_0)_k)^2<\delta^2 satisfies (u(w)u(θ(t0)))2<ε2\bigl(u(w)-u(\theta(t_0))\bigr)^2<\varepsilon^2. Taking w=θ(t)w=\theta(t) and using the displayed identity, (tt0)2<δ2(t-t_0)^2<\delta^2 implies (u(θ(t))u(θ(t0)))2<ε2\bigl(u(\theta(t))-u(\theta(t_0))\bigr)^2<\varepsilon^2; by clause 2 of monotonicity of squaring, applied to the nonnegative reals tt0,δ|t-t_0|,\delta and u(θ(t))u(θ(t0)),ε|u(\theta(t))-u(\theta(t_0))|,\varepsilon, this says that tt0<δ|t-t_0|<\delta implies u(θ(t))u(θ(t0))<ε|u(\theta(t))-u(\theta(t_0))|<\varepsilon. Hence gθ,yg_{\theta',y} and gθ,yg_{\theta',y}' are continuous at every point of R\mathbb{R}, as maps from the real line with the absolute value metric into itself.

Step 4 (the score identities). Fix i,j{1,,l}i,j\in\{1,\dots,l\} and let δij=1\delta_{ij}=1 if i=ji=j and δij=0\delta_{ij}=0 otherwise. We show

E[mj(D)Si]=0andE[ΘjSi]=δij.\mathbb{E}[m_j(D)\,S_i]=0\qquad\text{and}\qquad\mathbb{E}[\Theta_j\,S_i]=-\delta_{ij}.

We use three elementary facts on a measure space, from Lebesgue Integral of a Nonnegative Measurable Function, Simple Function and Its Integral, and Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral: (F1) a [0,][0,\infty]-valued measurable uu with finite integral is finite off a set of measure zero (on N={u=}N=\{u=\infty\} one has uL1Nu\ge L\mathbf{1}_N for every LL, so Lm(N)udmL\,m(N)\le\int u\,dm for every LL); (F2) a [0,][0,\infty]-valued measurable uu vanishing off a set of measure zero has udm=0\int u\,dm=0 (every simple ss with 0su0\le s\le u is bounded by a multiple of the indicator of that set, so sdm=0\int s\,dm=0; take the supremum); (F3) consequently, integrable real functions agreeing off a set of measure zero have equal integrals, and likewise [0,][0,\infty]-valued measurable functions (split by the exceptional set and use additivity with (F2)).

(a) E[mj(D)Si]=0\mathbb{E}[m_j(D)S_i]=0. The function G(θ,y)=mj(y)ip(θ,y)/p(θ,y)G(\theta,y)=m_j(y)\,\partial_ip(\theta,y)/p(\theta,y) is BlG\mathcal{B}_l\otimes\mathcal{G}-measurable: (θ,y)mj(y)(\theta,y)\mapsto m_j(y) is measurable (the preimage of a Borel set AA is the measurable rectangle Rl×mj1(A)\mathbb{R}^{l}\times m_j^{-1}(A)), ip/p\partial_ip/p is measurable as in assumption (iv), and products of real-valued measurable functions are measurable by Sequentially Continuous Functions of Measurable Euclidean Maps are Measurable (the map (u,v)uv(u,v)\mapsto uv is continuous on R2\mathbb{R}^{2}). The random variable G(Θ,D)=mj(D)SiG(\Theta,D)=m_j(D)S_i is integrable, being a product of the square-integrable random variables mj(D)m_j(D) and SiS_i (Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product). By Step 1, GpGp is κ\kappa-integrable and

E[mj(D)Si]=Gpdκ=mj(y)ip(θ,y)dκ(θ,y),\mathbb{E}[m_j(D)S_i]=\int Gp\,d\kappa=\int m_j(y)\,\partial_ip(\theta,y)\,d\kappa(\theta,y),

the second equality holding pointwise because p>0p>0 everywhere (assumption (ii)). Apply claim 4 of Finite Products of Lebesgue Measure and Coordinate Integration on Rl\mathbb{R}^l (coordinate Fubini at coordinate ii) to the κ\kappa-integrable (θ,y)mj(y)ip(θ,y)(\theta,y)\mapsto m_j(y)\partial_ip(\theta,y): there is a set N1N_1 of measure zero off which tmj(y)gθ,y(t)t\mapsto m_j(y)\,g_{\theta',y}'(t) is λ\lambda-integrable (Step 3 identifies the integrand), and mjipdκ\int m_j\partial_ip\,d\kappa equals the integral of the function FF given off N1N_1 by F(θ,y)=Rmj(y)gθ,y(t)dλ(t)F(\theta',y)=\int_{\mathbb{R}}m_j(y)g_{\theta',y}'(t)\,d\lambda(t) and by 00 on N1N_1. Now apply claim 3 of Finite Products of Lebesgue Measure and Coordinate Integration on Rl\mathbb{R}^l (coordinate Tonelli) to the nonnegative measurable functions pp and ip|\partial_ip|: since pdκ=1<\int p\,d\kappa=1<\infty (Step 1) and ipdκ<\int|\partial_ip|\,d\kappa<\infty (assumption (iii)), the measurable [0,][0,\infty]-valued functions (θ,y)Rgθ,ydλ(\theta',y)\mapsto\int_{\mathbb{R}}g_{\theta',y}\,d\lambda and (θ,y)Rgθ,ydλ(\theta',y)\mapsto\int_{\mathbb{R}}|g_{\theta',y}'|\,d\lambda have finite integrals, hence by (F1) are finite off sets N2N_2, N3N_3 of measure zero. For (θ,y)N1N2N3(\theta',y)\notin N_1\cup N_2\cup N_3, the function gθ,yg_{\theta',y} satisfies all hypotheses of Step 2(i) (continuity and differentiability from Step 3, integrability off N2N3N_2\cup N_3), so Rgθ,ydλ=0\int_{\mathbb{R}}g_{\theta',y}'\,d\lambda=0 and, pulling out the constant mj(y)m_j(y) by linearity (licensed off N3N_3, where gθ,yg_{\theta',y}' is λ\lambda-integrable), F(θ,y)=0F(\theta',y)=0. Thus FF vanishes off a set of measure zero, and E[mj(D)Si]=Fd(λl1μ)=0\mathbb{E}[m_j(D)S_i]=\int F\,d(\lambda_{l-1}\otimes\mu)=0 by (F3).

(b) E[ΘjSi]=δij\mathbb{E}[\Theta_jS_i]=-\delta_{ij}. Take G(θ,y)=θjip(θ,y)/p(θ,y)G(\theta,y)=\theta_j\,\partial_ip(\theta,y)/p(\theta,y); the coordinate map (θ,y)θj(\theta,y)\mapsto\theta_j is measurable (preimages are measurable rectangles), G(Θ,D)=ΘjSiG(\Theta,D)=\Theta_jS_i is integrable as a product of square-integrable random variables, and Step 1 gives

E[ΘjSi]=θjip(θ,y)dκ(θ,y),\mathbb{E}[\Theta_jS_i]=\int\theta_j\,\partial_ip(\theta,y)\,d\kappa(\theta,y),

the integrand being κ\kappa-integrable also directly from assumption (iii), since θjip(1+jθj)ip|\theta_j\partial_ip|\le(1+\sum_{j'}|\theta_{j'}|)|\partial_ip| pointwise.

Case iji\ne j. The jjth coordinate of Ψi(t,(θ,y))\Psi_i(t,(\theta',y)) does not depend on tt: it equals θj\theta'_j if j<ij<i and θj1\theta'_{j-1} if j>ij>i; call it θ(j)\theta'_{(j)}. Coordinate Fubini applied to θjip\theta_j\partial_ip represents the integral through inner integrals Rθ(j)gθ,y(t)dλ(t)=θ(j)Rgθ,ydλ=0\int_{\mathbb{R}}\theta'_{(j)}\,g_{\theta',y}'(t)\,d\lambda(t)=\theta'_{(j)}\int_{\mathbb{R}}g_{\theta',y}'\,d\lambda=0 off a set of measure zero, exactly as in (a) with the constant θ(j)\theta'_{(j)} in place of mj(y)m_j(y). Hence E[ΘjSi]=0\mathbb{E}[\Theta_jS_i]=0.

Case i=ji=j. Note that the iith coordinate of Ψi(t,(θ,y))\Psi_i(t,(\theta',y)) is exactly tt. Coordinate Fubini applied to the κ\kappa-integrable θiip\theta_i\partial_ip represents E[ΘiSi]\mathbb{E}[\Theta_iS_i] as the integral of the function FF equal, off a set N1N_1' of measure zero, to F(θ,y)=Rtgθ,y(t)dλ(t)F(\theta',y)=\int_{\mathbb{R}}t\,g_{\theta',y}'(t)\,d\lambda(t) and to 00 on N1N_1'. Two further applications of coordinate Tonelli give sets of measure zero off which Rtgθ,y(t)dλ(t)<\int_{\mathbb{R}}|t|\,g_{\theta',y}(t)\,d\lambda(t)<\infty and Rtgθ,y(t)dλ(t)<\int_{\mathbb{R}}|t|\,|g_{\theta',y}'(t)|\,d\lambda(t)<\infty: the first because θipdκ=E[Θi]<\int|\theta_i|\,p\,d\kappa=\mathbb{E}[|\Theta_i|]<\infty by Step 1 (square-integrable random variables are integrable, Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product), the second from assumption (iii) with the weight θi|\theta_i|, both followed by (F1). Off the union of all these sets and N2N_2, N3N_3 of part (a), Step 2(ii) applies to gθ,yg_{\theta',y} and gives

F(θ,y)=Rtgθ,y(t)dλ(t)=Rgθ,ydλ.F(\theta',y)=\int_{\mathbb{R}}t\,g_{\theta',y}'(t)\,d\lambda(t)=-\int_{\mathbb{R}}g_{\theta',y}\,d\lambda .

Let G0(θ,y)=Rgθ,ydλG_0(\theta',y)=\int_{\mathbb{R}}g_{\theta',y}\,d\lambda, the [0,][0,\infty]-valued measurable function of coordinate Tonelli applied to pp, with G0d(λl1μ)=pdκ=1\int G_0\,d(\lambda_{l-1}\otimes\mu)=\int p\,d\kappa=1. Then FF is integrable (claim 4), F+F^{+} vanishes off a set of measure zero, and F=G0F^{-}=G_0 off a set of measure zero; so by (F2) and (F3), Fd(λl1μ)=G0d(λl1μ)=1\int F\,d(\lambda_{l-1}\otimes\mu)=-\int G_0\,d(\lambda_{l-1}\otimes\mu)=-1. Hence E[ΘiSi]=1\mathbb{E}[\Theta_iS_i]=-1.

Combining (a) and (b) with linearity of the expectation (Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral),

E[(mj(D)Θj)Si]=δij(1i,jl).()\mathbb{E}\bigl[(m_j(D)-\Theta_j)\,S_i\bigr]=\delta_{ij}\qquad(1\le i,j\le l).\tag{$**$}

Step 5 (Cauchy-Schwarz step). Each mj(D)Θjm_j(D)-\Theta_j is square-integrable (Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product), so every product (mi(D)Θi)(mj(D)Θj)(m_i(D)-\Theta_i)(m_j(D)-\Theta_j) is integrable, RR is well defined, and Rij=RjiR_{ij}=R_{ji} by commutativity of pointwise multiplication. JJ is symmetric positive definite by assumption (iv), so J1J^{-1} exists and is symmetric positive definite by Invertibility of Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices. We use the dot product and the matrix-vector product on Rl\mathbb{R}^{l}; componentwise, a(Ma)=i,jaiMijaja\cdot(Ma)=\sum_{i,j}a_iM_{ij}a_j for any l×ll\times l matrix MM; A(Bx)=(AB)xA(Bx)=(AB)x for l×ll\times l matrices, since (A(Bx))i=jAijmBjmxm=m(AB)imxm(A(Bx))_i=\sum_jA_{ij}\sum_mB_{jm}x_m=\sum_m(AB)_{im}x_m with the matrix product; and Ix=xIx=x for the identity matrix II of Inverse Matrix and Invertible Real Square Matrix, since (Ix)i=jIijxj=xi(Ix)_i=\sum_jI_{ij}x_j=x_i.

Fix aRla\in\mathbb{R}^{l} and set b=J1ab=J^{-1}a, and

X=j=1laj(mj(D)Θj),W=i=1lbiSi,X=\sum_{j=1}^{l}a_j\bigl(m_j(D)-\Theta_j\bigr),\qquad W=\sum_{i=1}^{l}b_iS_i,

both square-integrable as linear combinations of square-integrable random variables. Expanding the products and using linearity of the expectation:

E[X2]=i,jaiajRij=a(Ra);E[XW]=i,jajbiE[(mj(D)Θj)Si]=jajbj=a(J1a)\mathbb{E}[X^{2}]=\sum_{i,j}a_ia_jR_{ij}=a\cdot(Ra);\qquad \mathbb{E}[XW]=\sum_{i,j}a_jb_i\,\mathbb{E}\bigl[(m_j(D)-\Theta_j)S_i\bigr]=\sum_{j}a_jb_j=a\cdot(J^{-1}a)

by (**); and

E[W2]=i,ibibiJii=b(Jb)=ba=a(J1a),\mathbb{E}[W^{2}]=\sum_{i,i'}b_ib_{i'}J_{ii'}=b\cdot(Jb)=b\cdot a=a\cdot(J^{-1}a),

since Jb=J(J1a)=(JJ1)a=Ia=aJb=J(J^{-1}a)=(JJ^{-1})a=Ia=a by the identities above and the definition of the inverse, and the dot product is symmetric. Since (XW)20(X-W)^{2}\ge0 pointwise, monotonicity and linearity of the expectation give

0E[(XW)2]=E[X2]2E[XW]+E[W2]=a(Ra)a(J1a)=a((RJ1)a),0\le\mathbb{E}\bigl[(X-W)^{2}\bigr]=\mathbb{E}[X^{2}]-2\,\mathbb{E}[XW]+\mathbb{E}[W^{2}]=a\cdot(Ra)-a\cdot(J^{-1}a)=a\cdot\bigl((R-J^{-1})a\bigr),

the last step by componentwise bilinearity. As aa was arbitrary and RJ1R-J^{-1} is symmetric, RJ1R-J^{-1} is positive semidefinite; that is, RJ1R\succeq J^{-1} in the semidefinite order. \blacksquare

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