TheoremBase

Proof of Stopped Weighted Second-Moment Evolution of the State Fluctuation Process

lemmalem:fluctuation-weighted-second-moment-stopped-2026a
Edited byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
Verified by 0 users · Flagged by 0 users
Reason: Proof of lem:fluctuation-weighted-second-moment-stopped-2026a, adapted from the published proof of lem:fluctuation-weighted-second-moment-2026b (proof version 6883bea3-abdd-47ac-bebc-958aa43741b6, cited): the representation is evaluated at the stopped time, the cross-moment facts are rederived from the stopped covariation identities, and the fully stopped form follows by a correction argument using the frozen state past the stopping time. Internally reviewed twice; validated strict.

Proof

Write 1=1Ω0\mathbf{1}=\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0} (equal to 11 on the regular event Ω0\Omega_0 and 00 off it). Since Ω0\Omega_0 has probability 11, expectations are unchanged when integrands are modified off Ω0\Omega_0, and we use this silently. Write I=(Is)s[0,T]I=(I_s)_{s\in[0,T]} for the pre-stopping-time indicator of τ\tau, so that Is=1{s<τ}I_s=\mathbf{1}_{\{s<\tau\}} in the notation of the statement; by claim 1 of that lemma II is progressively measurable with respect to (Ftsys)t[0,T](\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t)_{t\in[0,T]}, so each IsI_s is Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s-measurable and (s,ω)Is(ω)(s,\omega)\mapsto I_s(\omega) is product-measurable by claim 1 of the progressive measurability toolkit. For a family XX indexed by [0,T][0,T] we write X^t=Xmin(t,τ)\hat{X}_t=X_{\min(t,\tau)} for the sampled function at min(t,τ)\min(t,\tau) — a stopping time by claim 1 of the stopping-time toolkit — so s^tγ=smin(t,τ)γ\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t=\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_{\min(t,\tau)}. We use throughout the stopped covariation lemma, whose setting is contained in the present one, with its constant KM=1+2(l1)BTK_M=1+2(l-1)BT. The event ΩΩ0\Omega\setminus\Omega_0 has probability zero, and by the solution definition the system filtration contains every probability-zero event of F\mathcal{F}; hence Ω0Ftsys\Omega_0\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t for every tt and 1\mathbf{1} is F0sys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_0-measurable. Finally, a measurable real-valued function bounded in absolute value by a real c0c\ge0 is integrable on a finite measure space: its absolute value has integral at most cc times the total mass, by monotonicity of the nonnegative integral against the constant cc, whose integral is cc times the total mass directly from the definition of the nonnegative integral (a simple function). We use this bounded-integrability remark, without further comment, at every application below of the integration by parts lemma and of the Fubini theorem: every integrand concerned is measurable and bounded on [0,t][0,t] with the restricted Lebesgue measure, on [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega with the finite product measure, or on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P). All uses of the Tonelli and Fubini theorems are on the product of [0,T][0,T] (trace Borel σ\sigma-algebra, restricted Lebesgue measure, total mass TT by the toolkit) with the probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P), both finite, hence σ\sigma-finite.

Step 0 (measurability and bounds). Every Σt\Sigma_t lies in the probability simplex (each agent occupies exactly one state, by the derived notation of the solution definition), so st2N|\mathfrak{s}_t|\le2\sqrt{N} everywhere, any two points of the simplex having Euclidean norm at most 11. By the joint measurability lemma and measurability of sequentially continuous functions of measurable maps, the maps 1stγ\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_t, 1bγ(Σt,αt)\mathbf{1}b^\gamma(\Sigma_t,\alpha_t), and 1Θγδ(Σt,αt)\mathbf{1}\Theta^{\gamma\delta}(\Sigma_t,\alpha_t) are product-measurable: for the latter two, replace (Σt,αt)(\Sigma_t,\alpha_t) off Ω0\Omega_0 by a fixed point of Δl×A\Delta^l\times\mathcal{A} (which is nonempty) and compose the componentwise-measurable modified map with the sequentially continuous functions bγb^\gamma and Θγδ\Theta^{\gamma\delta}, whose sequential continuity follows from the joint continuity clause of the transition-rate family and continuity of the coordinate factors in their defining formulas; for 1stγ\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_t, subtract the product-measurable (t,ω)1Stγ(t,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}S^\gamma_t (continuous in tt, via the composition lemma applied to (t,ω)t(t,\omega)\mapsto t). On Ω0\Omega_0, bγ2(l1)B|b^\gamma|\le2(l-1)B and Θγδ2(l1)B|\Theta^{\gamma\delta}|\le2(l-1)B by part (a) of the martingale decomposition theorem, so gsγ4N(l1)B|g^\gamma_s|\le4\sqrt{N}(l-1)B there; moreover, by the final sentence of part (a), 1bγ(Σs,αs)2(l1)B|\mathbf{1}b^\gamma(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s)|\le2(l-1)B at every point of Ω\Omega, and bγ(Ss,As)2(l1)B|b^\gamma(S_s,A_s)|\le2(l-1)B for every ss by the formula of the aggregate state drift with 0βB0\le\beta\le B (transition-rate family) and SsS_s in the simplex, so 1gsγ4N(l1)B|\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s|\le4\sqrt{N}(l-1)B at every point of Ω\Omega, and (s,ω)1gsδ=N(1bδ(Σs,αs)1bδ(Ss,As))(s,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}g^\delta_s=\sqrt{N}\,\big(\mathbf{1}b^\delta(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s)-\mathbf{1}\,b^\delta(S_s,A_s)\big) is product-measurable as well, the deterministic sbδ(Ss,As)s\mapsto b^\delta(S_s,A_s) being continuous by condition 2 of the mean-field trajectory pair, hence product-measurable via composition with (s,ω)s(s,\omega)\mapsto s. Since each z˙γδ\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta} is continuous on [0,T][0,T], so is each ZγδZ^{\gamma\delta} (claim 4 of the componentwise toolkit, the indefinite Riemann integral of a continuous integrand being continuous), and both are bounded there by the extreme value theorem, the (1\mathbf{1}-modified) integrands built from these maps are bounded and product-measurable on a finite product measure.

We add the stopped objects. The family 1sγ=(1stγ)t[0,T]\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma=(\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_t)_{t\in[0,T]} is progressively measurable with respect to (Ftsys)t[0,T](\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} with every path right-continuous in the sequential sense of the progressive measurability toolkit: indeed 1stγ=N(1Σtγ1Stγ)\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_t=\sqrt{N}(\mathbf{1}\Sigma^\gamma_t-\mathbf{1}S^\gamma_t); the family 1Σγ\mathbf{1}\Sigma^\gamma is progressively measurable with every path right-continuous in the sequential sense by claim 2 of the stopped covariation lemma; the family 1Sγ\mathbf{1}S^\gamma is adapted (StγS^\gamma_t is a constant and 1\mathbf{1} is F0sys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_0-measurable, as noted in the preamble) with every path right-continuous — on Ω0\Omega_0 the path is SγS^\gamma itself, continuous on [0,T][0,T] by condition 1 of the mean-field trajectory pair, so path values converge along any sequence sjts_j\to t in [t,T][t,T], while off Ω0\Omega_0 the path vanishes identically — hence progressively measurable by claim 2 of the progressive measurability toolkit; and sums and scalar multiples of progressively measurable families are progressively measurable by claim 3 of the same toolkit, right-continuity of paths being preserved by the arithmetic of limits. Consequently, by claim 4 of the stopping-time toolkit (parts (i) and (iii), every path being right-continuous), the stopped family of 1sγ\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma — which equals (1s^tγ)t[0,T](\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t)_{t\in[0,T]} pointwise, sampling being pointwise evaluation — is adapted with every path right-continuous, hence progressively measurable by claim 2 of the progressive measurability toolkit; in particular each 1s^tγ\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t is a random variable bounded by 2N2\sqrt{N}, and (s,ω)1s^sγ(ω)(s,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s(\omega) is product-measurable (claim 1 of that toolkit). Next, each Zmin(t,τ)γδZ^{\gamma\delta}_{\min(t,\tau)} is a random variable bounded by the bound on ZγδZ^{\gamma\delta}: the function τ\tau is measurable with respect to FTsys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_T and the Borel σ\sigma-algebra (claim 1 of the stopping-time toolkit), xmin(t,x)x\mapsto\min(t,x) is sequentially continuous, and uZuγδu\mapsto Z^{\gamma\delta}_u is continuous on [0,T][0,T], so the composition is measurable by two applications of the composition lemma. Therefore the functions named in part (a) — 1s^tγ\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t, and the finite sums of products 1s^tZts^t\mathbf{1}\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t\cdot Z_t\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t and 1s^tZmin(t,τ)s^t\mathbf{1}\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t\cdot Z_{\min(t,\tau)}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t — are bounded random variables, every expectation named in part (a) is finite and bounded in ss, and measurability in ss of each follows from the Fubini theorem applied to the bounded product-measurable integrands 1Isssγssδz˙γδ(s)\mathbf{1}I_s\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_s\mathfrak{s}^\delta_s\,\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s), 1IsssγgsδZsγδ\mathbf{1}I_s\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_sg^\delta_s\,Z^{\gamma\delta}_s, Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs)I_s\,\mathbf{1}\Theta^{\gamma\delta}(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s), and 1s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s\,\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s) on the finite product measure (the deterministic factors z˙γδ(s)\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s) and ZsγδZ^{\gamma\delta}_s, continuous in ss, are product-measurable via composition with (s,ω)s(s,\omega)\mapsto s). The expectation E[s0Z0s0]\mathbb{E}[\mathfrak{s}_0\cdot Z_0\mathfrak{s}_0] named in part (a) is also finite: each s0γ=N(Σ0γS0γ)\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0=\sqrt{N}(\Sigma^\gamma_0-S^\gamma_0) is a random variable bounded by 2N2\sqrt{N} (Σ0γ\Sigma^\gamma_0 is F0sys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_0-measurable by part (iv) of the existence theorem, and S0γS^\gamma_0 is a constant), so the pairing, a finite sum of products with the constants Z0γδZ^{\gamma\delta}_0, is a bounded random variable. This proves (a).

Step 1 (stopped integral representation and cross moments). By part (b) of the martingale decomposition theorem and condition 2 of the mean-field trajectory pair (with claim 3 of the integral toolkit for the Riemann-Lebesgue agreement; the indicator 1Ω0\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0} in the decomposition's integral equals 11 on Ω0\Omega_0), at every point of Ω0\Omega_0, for all tt and γ\gamma,

stγ=s0γ+Ftγ+mtγ,Ftγ=[0,t]gsγds,mtγ=NMtγ,\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_t=\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0+F^\gamma_t+\mathfrak{m}^\gamma_t,\qquad F^\gamma_t=\int_{[0,t]}g^\gamma_s\,ds,\qquad \mathfrak{m}^\gamma_t=\sqrt{N}\,M^\gamma_t,

where each MγM^\gamma is a square-integrable martingale with M0γ=0M^\gamma_0=0 at every point of Ω\Omega and MtγKM|M^\gamma_t|\le K_M everywhere (claim 2 of the stopped covariation lemma). Evaluating this representation at the time point min(t,τ(ω))[0,T]\min(t,\tau(\omega))\in[0,T] gives, at every ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0, for all tt and γ\gamma,

s^tγ=s0γ+F^tγ+m^tγ,F^tγ=[0,t]Is1gsγds,m^tγ=NMmin(t,τ)γ,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t=\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0+\hat{F}^\gamma_t+\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t,\qquad \hat{F}^\gamma_t=\int_{[0,t]}I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,ds,\qquad \hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t=\sqrt{N}\,M^\gamma_{\min(t,\tau)},

where F^tγ\hat{F}^\gamma_t is defined at every point of Ω\Omega: at each ω\omega the section sIs(ω)1(ω)gsγ(ω)s\mapsto I_s(\omega)\,\mathbf{1}(\omega)\,g^\gamma_s(\omega) is bounded by 4N(l1)B4\sqrt{N}(l-1)B (Step 0) and measurable on [0,T][0,T] — the path of II is measurable by claim 1 of the stopped-time-integral lemma; the path of 1bγ(Σ,α)\mathbf{1}b^\gamma(\Sigma_\cdot,\alpha_\cdot) is measurable at every ω\omega by part (a) of the decomposition theorem; the path sbγ(Ss,As)s\mapsto b^\gamma(S_s,A_s) is continuous by condition 2 of the mean-field trajectory pair, hence measurable by claim 3 of the Borel toolkit; and products and differences of measurable paths are measurable (the composition lemma). Moreover, at every ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0,

F^tγ=[0,t]Isgsγds=Fmin(t,τ)γ,\hat{F}^\gamma_t=\int_{[0,t]}I_s\,g^\gamma_s\,ds=F^\gamma_{\min(t,\tau)},

the first equality because 1=1\mathbf{1}=1 on Ω0\Omega_0 and the second by claim 2 of the stopped-time-integral lemma applied to the path of gγg^\gamma, measurable and bounded by 4N(l1)B4\sqrt{N}(l-1)B on Ω0\Omega_0 as just noted. The sampled functions 1m^tγ=N1Mmin(t,τ)γ\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t=\sqrt{N}\,\mathbf{1}M^\gamma_{\min(t,\tau)} are random variables bounded by NKM\sqrt{N}K_M, by claim 4 of the stopped covariation lemma. We record four facts, for all γ,δ\gamma,\delta and 0stT0\le s\le t\le T.

(1a) If XX is a bounded random variable that is measurable with respect to the system filtration entry Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s, then E[X1(m^tδm^sδ)]=0\mathbb{E}[X\,\mathbf{1}(\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t-\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_s)]=0. Indeed, with Xc|X|\le c, the dyadic truncations Xn=2n2nXX_n=2^{-n}\lfloor2^nX\rfloor (a finite sum kk2n1Dn,k\sum_k k2^{-n}\mathbf{1}_{D_{n,k}} over the finitely many levels with k2nc+1|k|2^{-n}\le c+1, each Dn,kFssysD_{n,k}\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s) satisfy XnX2n|X_n-X|\le2^{-n}; the first identity of claim 4 of the stopped covariation lemma, applied with the pair of times sts\le t and the event Dn,kFssysD_{n,k}\in\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s, gives E[1Dn,k1(Mmin(t,τ)δMmin(s,τ)δ)]=0\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_{D_{n,k}}\,\mathbf{1}(M^\delta_{\min(t,\tau)}-M^\delta_{\min(s,\tau)})]=0 for each level set, hence E[Xn1(m^tδm^sδ)]=0\mathbb{E}[X_n\,\mathbf{1}(\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t-\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_s)]=0 by linearity, and E[(XXn)1(m^tδm^sδ)]2n2NKM0|\mathbb{E}[(X-X_n)\,\mathbf{1}(\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t-\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_s)]|\le2^{-n}\cdot2\sqrt{N}K_M\to0.

(1b) E[s0γ1m^tδ]=0\mathbb{E}[\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t]=0: apply (1a) with s=0s=0 and X=s0γX=\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0 (bounded by 2N2\sqrt{N}; Σ0\Sigma_0 is F0sys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_0-measurable by part (iv) of the existence theorem and S0S_0 is a constant), noting m^0δ=NMmin(0,τ)δ=NM0δ=0\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_0=\sqrt{N}M^\delta_{\min(0,\tau)}=\sqrt{N}M^\delta_0=0 at every point of Ω\Omega.

(1c) E[Is1gsγ1m^tδ]=E[Is1gsγ1m^sδ]\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t]=\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_s]: apply (1a) with X=Is1gsγX=I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s, which is bounded by 4N(l1)B4\sqrt{N}(l-1)B at every point of Ω\Omega (Step 0) and Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s-measurable (IsI_s is Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s-measurable and 1\mathbf{1} is F0sys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_0-measurable, both as noted in the preamble; Σs\Sigma_s is Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s-measurable by part (iv) of the existence theorem, αs\alpha_s is Gs\mathcal{G}_s-measurable by the same part, hence Fssys\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s-measurable since GsFssys\mathcal{G}_s\subseteq\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_s by part (vii)(e), and bγb^\gamma composed with them is measurable by the composition lemma; bγ(Ss,As)b^\gamma(S_s,A_s) is a constant).

(1d) E[1m^tγm^tδ]=[0,t]E[Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs)]ds\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t]=\int_{[0,t]}\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}\Theta^{\gamma\delta}(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s)]\,ds: this is the second identity of claim 4 of the stopped covariation lemma, with the pair of times 0t0\le t and D=ΩD=\Omega — the terms at time 00 vanishing since Mmin(0,τ)γ=M0γ=0M^\gamma_{\min(0,\tau)}=M^\gamma_0=0 everywhere — multiplied by NN, together with the Fubini theorem to exchange E\mathbb{E} and the time integral of the product-measurable bounded integrand Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs)I_s\,\mathbf{1}\Theta^{\gamma\delta}(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s) (Step 0 and the preamble).

Step 2 (evolution of the stopped second-moment matrix). Fix γ,δ\gamma,\delta and set Ψ^γδ(t)=E[1s^tγs^tδ]\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(t)=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_t]. Expanding the product of the two stopped three-term representations of Step 1 — valid at every point of Ω0\Omega_0, which suffices under the factor 1\mathbf{1} — and taking expectations termwise (all nine terms are bounded random variables by Step 0 and Step 1, hence integrable, absorbing repeated factors via 12=1\mathbf{1}^2=\mathbf{1}):

Ψ^γδ(t)=E[1s0γs0δ]+E[1s0γF^tδ]+E[1F^tγs0δ]+E[1F^tγF^tδ]+E[1F^tγm^tδ]+E[1m^tγF^tδ]+E[1m^tγm^tδ],\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(t)=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0\mathfrak{s}^\delta_0]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0\hat{F}^\delta_t]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\gamma_t\mathfrak{s}^\delta_0]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\gamma_t\hat{F}^\delta_t]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t\hat{F}^\delta_t]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t],

the terms E[1s0γm^tδ]\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t] and E[1m^tγs0δ]\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t\mathfrak{s}^\delta_0] vanishing by (1b). Now: 1F^tδ=F^tδ\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\delta_t=\hat{F}^\delta_t at every point of Ω\Omega (F^tδ\hat{F}^\delta_t vanishes off Ω0\Omega_0, its integrand carrying the factor 1\mathbf{1}), so E[1s0γF^tδ]=[0,t]E[Is1s0γ1gsδ]ds\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0\hat{F}^\delta_t]=\int_{[0,t]}\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0\,\mathbf{1}g^\delta_s]\,ds by the Fubini theorem (bounded product-measurable integrand: Step 0, the preamble, and part (iv) of the existence theorem for s0γ\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0; the repeated factor 1\mathbf{1} is absorbed by 12=1\mathbf{1}^2=\mathbf{1}), and symmetrically E[1F^tγs0δ]=[0,t]E[Is1gsγ1s0δ]ds\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\gamma_t\mathfrak{s}^\delta_0]=\int_{[0,t]}\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,\mathbf{1}\mathfrak{s}^\delta_0]\,ds. Pathwise at every ωΩ\omega\in\Omega, the integration by parts lemma on [0,t][0,t] with u0=v0=0u_0=v_0=0 and densities Is1gsγI_s\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s and Is1gsδI_s\mathbf{1}g^\delta_s — measurable and bounded on [0,t][0,t] by Step 1, hence integrable there, the case t=0t=0 being trivial — gives

F^tγF^tδ=[0,t]Is1(gsγF^sδ+F^sγgsδ)ds\hat{F}^\gamma_t\hat{F}^\delta_t=\int_{[0,t]}I_s\,\mathbf{1}\big(g^\gamma_s\hat{F}^\delta_s+\hat{F}^\gamma_sg^\delta_s\big)\,ds

(collecting the common factor Is1I_s\mathbf{1} from the two density terms), so E[1F^tγF^tδ]=[0,t]E[Is1(gsγF^sδ+F^sγgsδ)]ds\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\gamma_t\hat{F}^\delta_t]=\int_{[0,t]}\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}(g^\gamma_s\hat{F}^\delta_s+\hat{F}^\gamma_sg^\delta_s)]\,ds (Fubini; F^sγ4N(l1)BT|\hat{F}^\gamma_s|\le4\sqrt{N}(l-1)BT everywhere, and (s,ω)F^sγ(s,\omega)\mapsto\hat{F}^\gamma_s is product-measurable, being the indefinite time integral of the bounded product-measurable family I1gγI\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma, which is progressively measurable with respect to the constant filtration (F)t[0,T](\mathcal{F})_{t\in[0,T]} — the subsets of [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega whose intersection with [0,t]×Ω[0,t]\times\Omega lies in B[0,t]F\mathcal{B}_{[0,t]}\otimes\mathcal{F} form a σ\sigma-algebra containing every measurable rectangle, hence all of B[0,T]F\mathcal{B}_{[0,T]}\otimes\mathcal{F} — so that claims 4 and 1 of the progressive measurability toolkit apply). Also 1F^tγm^tδ=[0,t]Is1gsγ1m^tδds\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t=\int_{[0,t]}I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t\,ds pathwise at every ω\omega (the constant-in-ss factor 1m^tδ\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t moving inside the integral by linearity, with 12=1\mathbf{1}^2=\mathbf{1}), so by the Fubini theorem (the integrand Is1gsγ1m^tδI_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t is product-measurable and bounded by 4N(l1)BNKM4\sqrt{N}(l-1)B\cdot\sqrt{N}K_M) and (1c),

E[1F^tγm^tδ]=[0,t]E[Is1gsγ1m^tδ]ds=[0,t]E[Is1gsγ1m^sδ]ds,\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{F}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t]=\int_{[0,t]}\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_t]\,ds=\int_{[0,t]}\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}g^\gamma_s\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_s]\,ds,

and symmetrically for E[1m^tγF^tδ]\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\gamma_t\hat{F}^\delta_t]. Combining with (1d) and collecting the integrands via Is(s0δ+F^sδ+m^sδ)=Iss^sδ=IsssδI_s\,(\mathfrak{s}^\delta_0+\hat{F}^\delta_s+\hat{\mathfrak{m}}^\delta_s)=I_s\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s=I_s\,\mathfrak{s}^\delta_s on Ω0\Omega_0 — the first equality by Step 1, the second because Is(ω)=1I_s(\omega)=1 forces s<τ(ω)s<\tau(\omega), whence min(s,τ(ω))=s\min(s,\tau(\omega))=s and s^sδ(ω)=ssδ(ω)\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s(\omega)=\mathfrak{s}^\delta_s(\omega)

Ψ^γδ(t)=Ψ^γδ(0)+[0,t]ψ^γδ(s)ds,ψ^γδ(s)=E[1Isgsγssδ]+E[1Isgsδssγ]+E[Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs)],\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(t)=\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(0)+\int_{[0,t]}\hat{\psi}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\,ds,\qquad \hat{\psi}^{\gamma\delta}(s)=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}I_s\,g^\gamma_s\mathfrak{s}^\delta_s]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}I_s\,g^\delta_s\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_s]+\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}\Theta^{\gamma\delta}(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s)],

with Ψ^γδ(0)=E[s0γs0δ]\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(0)=\mathbb{E}[\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_0\mathfrak{s}^\delta_0] (as min(0,τ)=0\min(0,\tau)=0 pointwise and P(Ω0)=1P(\Omega_0)=1) and each ψ^γδ\hat{\psi}^{\gamma\delta} bounded, and measurable by the same Fubini argument as in Step 0 applied to the bounded product-measurable integrands 1Igγsδ\mathbf{1}I\,g^\gamma\mathfrak{s}^\delta and I1ΘγδI\,\mathbf{1}\Theta^{\gamma\delta}.

Step 3 (weighting by ZZ: part (b)). Fix t[0,T]t\in[0,T]; the case t=0t=0 is trivial (both sides of (b) equal E[s0Z0s0]\mathbb{E}[\mathfrak{s}_0\cdot Z_0\mathfrak{s}_0], as min(0,τ)=0\min(0,\tau)=0), so let t>0t>0. Apply the integration by parts lemma on [0,t][0,t] to u=Zγδu=Z^{\gamma\delta} (with density z˙γδ\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}, continuous, Riemann and Lebesgue integrals agreeing) and v=Ψ^γδv=\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta} (with density ψ^γδ\hat{\psi}^{\gamma\delta}, from Step 2, bounded and measurable there, hence integrable):

ZtγδΨ^γδ(t)=Z0γδΨ^γδ(0)+[0,t](z˙γδ(s)Ψ^γδ(s)+Zsγδψ^γδ(s))ds.Z^{\gamma\delta}_t\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(t)=Z^{\gamma\delta}_0\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(0)+\int_{[0,t]}\big(\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(s)+Z^{\gamma\delta}_s\hat{\psi}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\big)ds .

Sum over γ,δ{1,,l}\gamma,\delta\in\{1,\dots,l\}. On the left, γ,δZtγδΨ^γδ(t)=E[1s^tZts^t]\sum_{\gamma,\delta}Z^{\gamma\delta}_t\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(t)=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t\cdot Z_t\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t] by linearity of the expectation, while γ,δZ0γδΨ^γδ(0)=E[s0Z0s0]\sum_{\gamma,\delta}Z^{\gamma\delta}_0\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(0)=\mathbb{E}[\mathfrak{s}_0\cdot Z_0\mathfrak{s}_0] by the value of Ψ^γδ(0)\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(0) recorded in Step 2. In the integrand, γ,δz˙γδ(s)Ψ^γδ(s)=E[1s^sz˙(s)s^s]\sum_{\gamma,\delta}\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\hat{\Psi}^{\gamma\delta}(s)=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_s\cdot\dot{z}(s)\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_s], while by the symmetry of ZsZ_s and relabeling of the summation indices,

γ,δZsγδ(E[1Isgsγssδ]+E[1Isgsδssγ])=2γ,δZsγδE[1Isssγgsδ]=2E[1IsssZsgs],\sum_{\gamma,\delta}Z^{\gamma\delta}_s\big(\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}I_sg^\gamma_s\mathfrak{s}^\delta_s]+\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}I_sg^\delta_s\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_s]\big)=2\sum_{\gamma,\delta}Z^{\gamma\delta}_s\,\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}I_s\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_sg^\delta_s]=2\,\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}I_s\,\mathfrak{s}_s\cdot Z_sg_s],

and the remaining term is γ,δZsγδE[Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs)]\sum_{\gamma,\delta}Z^{\gamma\delta}_s\,\mathbb{E}[I_s\,\mathbf{1}\Theta^{\gamma\delta}(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s)]. Since Is=1{s<τ}I_s=\mathbf{1}_{\{s<\tau\}}, this is exactly the displayed identity of part (b).

Step 4 (part (c)). Fix t[0,T]t\in[0,T]; for t=0t=0 both sides of (c) equal E[s0Z0s0]\mathbb{E}[\mathfrak{s}_0\cdot Z_0\mathfrak{s}_0], so let t>0t>0. Since Zuγδ=Z0γδ+0uz˙γδ(s)dsZ^{\gamma\delta}_u=Z^{\gamma\delta}_0+\int_0^u\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\,ds for every u[0,T]u\in[0,T], with the Riemann and Lebesgue integrals agreeing (claim 3 of the integral toolkit), claim 2 of the stopped-time-integral lemma — applied at each ω\omega to the deterministic family (s,ω)z˙γδ(s)(s,\omega)\mapsto\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s), whose paths are continuous, hence measurable by claim 3 of the Borel toolkit, and bounded by the extreme value theorem — gives at every ω\omega

ZtγδZmin(t,τ)γδ=[0,t]z˙γδ(s)ds[0,t]Isz˙γδ(s)ds=[0,t](1Is)z˙γδ(s)ds,Z^{\gamma\delta}_t-Z^{\gamma\delta}_{\min(t,\tau)}=\int_{[0,t]}\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\,ds-\int_{[0,t]}I_s\,\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\,ds=\int_{[0,t]}(1-I_s)\,\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\,ds,

the last equality by linearity. Multiply by the random variable 1s^tγs^tδ\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_t, constant in ss, moving it inside the integral by linearity, and note: at every ω\omega and every s[0,t]s\in[0,t] with 1Is(ω)=11-I_s(\omega)=1 — that is, τ(ω)s\tau(\omega)\le s — one has min(t,τ(ω))=τ(ω)=min(s,τ(ω))\min(t,\tau(\omega))=\tau(\omega)=\min(s,\tau(\omega)), so s^tγ(ω)=s^sγ(ω)\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t(\omega)=\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s(\omega) and s^tδ(ω)=s^sδ(ω)\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_t(\omega)=\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s(\omega). The integrands (1Is)1s^tγs^tδz˙γδ(s)(1-I_s)\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_t\,\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s) and (1Is)1s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)(1-I_s)\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s\,\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s) therefore coincide pointwise, giving at every ω\omega

1s^tγs^tδ(ZtγδZmin(t,τ)γδ)=[0,t](1Is)1s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)ds.\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_t\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_t\,\big(Z^{\gamma\delta}_t-Z^{\gamma\delta}_{\min(t,\tau)}\big)=\int_{[0,t]}(1-I_s)\,\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s\,\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)\,ds .

Take expectations, exchanging E\mathbb{E} with the time integral by the Fubini theorem (the integrand is product-measurable by Step 0 and claim 1 of the stopped-time-integral lemma, and bounded by 4N4N times the bound on z˙γδ\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}), and sum over γ,δ\gamma,\delta:

E[1s^tZts^t]E[1s^tZmin(t,τ)s^t]=[0,t](E[1s^sz˙(s)s^s]E[1Isssz˙(s)ss])ds,\mathbb{E}\big[\mathbf{1}\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t\cdot Z_t\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t\big]-\mathbb{E}\big[\mathbf{1}\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t\cdot Z_{\min(t,\tau)}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_t\big]=\int_{[0,t]}\Big(\mathbb{E}\big[\mathbf{1}\,\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_s\cdot\dot{z}(s)\hat{\mathfrak{s}}_s\big]-\mathbb{E}\big[\mathbf{1}I_s\,\mathfrak{s}_s\cdot\dot{z}(s)\mathfrak{s}_s\big]\Big)\,ds,

where we split E[1(1Is)s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)]=E[1s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)]E[1Iss^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)]\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}(1-I_s)\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)]=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)]-\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}I_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\delta_s\dot{z}^{\gamma\delta}(s)] by linearity and used Iss^sγ=IsssγI_s\hat{\mathfrak{s}}^\gamma_s=I_s\mathfrak{s}^\gamma_s (Step 2). Subtracting this display from the identity of part (b) — the difference of the two time integrals being the time integral of the difference, by linearity, all integrands being bounded measurable functions of ss by part (a) — and combining the two remaining expectations in the integrand into one by linearity yields exactly the displayed identity of part (c). \blacksquare

Please log in to copy this version.

Citations

Loading…

Dependency Graph

0 prerequisites

Prerequisites

Loading...

Comments

Loading…