Reason: Proof of lem:fluctuation-weighted-second-moment-stopped-2026a, adapted from the published proof of lem:fluctuation-weighted-second-moment-2026b (proof version 6883bea3-abdd-47ac-bebc-958aa43741b6, cited): the representation is evaluated at the stopped time, the cross-moment facts are rederived from the stopped covariation identities, and the fully stopped form follows by a correction argument using the frozen state past the stopping time. Internally reviewed twice; validated strict.
Proof
Write 1=1Ω0 (equal to 1 on the regular event Ω0 and 0 off it). Since Ω0 has probability 1, expectations are unchanged when integrands are modified off Ω0, and we use this silently. Write I=(Is)s∈[0,T] for the pre-stopping-time indicator of τ, so that Is=1{s<τ} in the notation of the statement; by claim 1 of that lemma I is progressively measurable with respect to (Ftsys)t∈[0,T], so each Is is Fssys-measurable and (s,ω)↦Is(ω) is product-measurable by claim 1 of the progressive measurability toolkit. For a family X indexed by [0,T] we write X^t=Xmin(t,τ) for the sampled function at min(t,τ) — a stopping time by claim 1 of the stopping-time toolkit — so s^tγ=smin(t,τ)γ. We use throughout the stopped covariation lemma, whose setting is contained in the present one, with its constant KM=1+2(l−1)BT. The event Ω∖Ω0 has probability zero, and by the solution definition the system filtration contains every probability-zero event of F; hence Ω0∈Ftsys for every t and 1 is F0sys-measurable. Finally, a measurable real-valued function bounded in absolute value by a real c≥0 is integrable on a finite measure space: its absolute value has integral at most c times the total mass, by monotonicity of the nonnegative integral against the constant c, whose integral is c times the total mass directly from the definition of the nonnegative integral (a simple function). We use this bounded-integrability remark, without further comment, at every application below of the integration by parts lemma and of the Fubini theorem: every integrand concerned is measurable and bounded on [0,t] with the restricted Lebesgue measure, on [0,T]×Ω with the finite product measure, or on (Ω,F,P). All uses of the Tonelli and Fubini theorems are on the product of [0,T] (trace Borel σ-algebra, restricted Lebesgue measure, total mass T by the toolkit) with the probability space (Ω,F,P), both finite, hence σ-finite.
Step 0 (measurability and bounds). Every Σt lies in the probability simplex (each agent occupies exactly one state, by the derived notation of the solution definition), so ∣st∣≤2N everywhere, any two points of the simplex having Euclidean norm at most 1. By the joint measurability lemma and measurability of sequentially continuous functions of measurable maps, the maps 1stγ, 1bγ(Σt,αt), and 1Θγδ(Σt,αt) are product-measurable: for the latter two, replace (Σt,αt) off Ω0 by a fixed point of Δl×A (which is nonempty) and compose the componentwise-measurable modified map with the sequentially continuous functions bγ and Θγδ, whose sequential continuity follows from the joint continuity clause of the transition-rate family and continuity of the coordinate factors in their defining formulas; for 1stγ, subtract the product-measurable (t,ω)↦1Stγ (continuous in t, via the composition lemma applied to (t,ω)↦t). On Ω0, ∣bγ∣≤2(l−1)B and ∣Θγδ∣≤2(l−1)B by part (a) of the martingale decomposition theorem, so ∣gsγ∣≤4N(l−1)B there; moreover, by the final sentence of part (a), ∣1bγ(Σs,αs)∣≤2(l−1)B at every point of Ω, and ∣bγ(Ss,As)∣≤2(l−1)B for every s by the formula of the aggregate state drift with 0≤β≤B (transition-rate family) and Ss in the simplex, so ∣1gsγ∣≤4N(l−1)B at every point of Ω, and (s,ω)↦1gsδ=N(1bδ(Σs,αs)−1bδ(Ss,As)) is product-measurable as well, the deterministic s↦bδ(Ss,As) being continuous by condition 2 of the mean-field trajectory pair, hence product-measurable via composition with (s,ω)↦s. Since each z˙γδ is continuous on [0,T], so is each Zγδ (claim 4 of the componentwise toolkit, the indefinite Riemann integral of a continuous integrand being continuous), and both are bounded there by the extreme value theorem, the (1-modified) integrands built from these maps are bounded and product-measurable on a finite product measure.
We add the stopped objects. The family 1sγ=(1stγ)t∈[0,T] is progressively measurable with respect to (Ftsys)t∈[0,T] with every path right-continuous in the sequential sense of the progressive measurability toolkit: indeed 1stγ=N(1Σtγ−1Stγ); the family 1Σγ is progressively measurable with every path right-continuous in the sequential sense by claim 2 of the stopped covariation lemma; the family 1Sγ is adapted (Stγ is a constant and 1 is F0sys-measurable, as noted in the preamble) with every path right-continuous — on Ω0 the path is Sγ itself, continuous on [0,T] by condition 1 of the mean-field trajectory pair, so path values converge along any sequence sj→t in [t,T], while off Ω0 the path vanishes identically — hence progressively measurable by claim 2 of the progressive measurability toolkit; and sums and scalar multiples of progressively measurable families are progressively measurable by claim 3 of the same toolkit, right-continuity of paths being preserved by the arithmetic of limits. Consequently, by claim 4 of the stopping-time toolkit (parts (i) and (iii), every path being right-continuous), the stopped family of 1sγ — which equals (1s^tγ)t∈[0,T] pointwise, sampling being pointwise evaluation — is adapted with every path right-continuous, hence progressively measurable by claim 2 of the progressive measurability toolkit; in particular each 1s^tγ is a random variable bounded by 2N, and (s,ω)↦1s^sγ(ω) is product-measurable (claim 1 of that toolkit). Next, each Zmin(t,τ)γδ is a random variable bounded by the bound on Zγδ: the function τ is measurable with respect to FTsys and the Borel σ-algebra (claim 1 of the stopping-time toolkit), x↦min(t,x) is sequentially continuous, and u↦Zuγδ is continuous on [0,T], so the composition is measurable by two applications of the composition lemma. Therefore the functions named in part (a) — 1s^tγ, and the finite sums of products 1s^t⋅Zts^t and 1s^t⋅Zmin(t,τ)s^t — are bounded random variables, every expectation named in part (a) is finite and bounded in s, and measurability in s of each follows from the Fubini theorem applied to the bounded product-measurable integrands 1Isssγssδz˙γδ(s), 1IsssγgsδZsγδ, Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs), and 1s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s) on the finite product measure (the deterministic factors z˙γδ(s) and Zsγδ, continuous in s, are product-measurable via composition with (s,ω)↦s). The expectation E[s0⋅Z0s0] named in part (a) is also finite: each s0γ=N(Σ0γ−S0γ) is a random variable bounded by 2N (Σ0γ is F0sys-measurable by part (iv) of the existence theorem, and S0γ is a constant), so the pairing, a finite sum of products with the constants Z0γδ, is a bounded random variable. This proves (a).
Step 1 (stopped integral representation and cross moments). By part (b) of the martingale decomposition theorem and condition 2 of the mean-field trajectory pair (with claim 3 of the integral toolkit for the Riemann-Lebesgue agreement; the indicator 1Ω0 in the decomposition's integral equals 1 on Ω0), at every point of Ω0, for all t and γ,
where each Mγ is a square-integrable martingale with M0γ=0 at every point of Ω and ∣Mtγ∣≤KM everywhere (claim 2 of the stopped covariation lemma). Evaluating this representation at the time point min(t,τ(ω))∈[0,T] gives, at every ω∈Ω0, for all t and γ,
where F^tγ is defined at every point of Ω: at each ω the section s↦Is(ω)1(ω)gsγ(ω) is bounded by 4N(l−1)B (Step 0) and measurable on [0,T] — the path of I is measurable by claim 1 of the stopped-time-integral lemma; the path of 1bγ(Σ⋅,α⋅) is measurable at every ω by part (a) of the decomposition theorem; the path s↦bγ(Ss,As) is continuous by condition 2 of the mean-field trajectory pair, hence measurable by claim 3 of the Borel toolkit; and products and differences of measurable paths are measurable (the composition lemma). Moreover, at every ω∈Ω0,
F^tγ=∫[0,t]Isgsγds=Fmin(t,τ)γ,
the first equality because 1=1 on Ω0 and the second by claim 2 of the stopped-time-integral lemma applied to the path of gγ, measurable and bounded by 4N(l−1)B on Ω0 as just noted. The sampled functions 1m^tγ=N1Mmin(t,τ)γ are random variables bounded by NKM, by claim 4 of the stopped covariation lemma. We record four facts, for all γ,δ and 0≤s≤t≤T.
(1a) If X is a bounded random variable that is measurable with respect to the system filtration entry Fssys, then E[X1(m^tδ−m^sδ)]=0. Indeed, with ∣X∣≤c, the dyadic truncations Xn=2−n⌊2nX⌋ (a finite sum ∑kk2−n1Dn,k over the finitely many levels with ∣k∣2−n≤c+1, each Dn,k∈Fssys) satisfy ∣Xn−X∣≤2−n; the first identity of claim 4 of the stopped covariation lemma, applied with the pair of times s≤t and the event Dn,k∈Fssys, gives E[1Dn,k1(Mmin(t,τ)δ−Mmin(s,τ)δ)]=0 for each level set, hence E[Xn1(m^tδ−m^sδ)]=0 by linearity, and ∣E[(X−Xn)1(m^tδ−m^sδ)]∣≤2−n⋅2NKM→0.
(1b) E[s0γ1m^tδ]=0: apply (1a) with s=0 and X=s0γ (bounded by 2N; Σ0 is F0sys-measurable by part (iv) of the existence theorem and S0 is a constant), noting m^0δ=NMmin(0,τ)δ=NM0δ=0 at every point of Ω.
(1c) E[Is1gsγ1m^tδ]=E[Is1gsγ1m^sδ]: apply (1a) with X=Is1gsγ, which is bounded by 4N(l−1)B at every point of Ω (Step 0) and Fssys-measurable (Is is Fssys-measurable and 1 is F0sys-measurable, both as noted in the preamble; Σs is Fssys-measurable by part (iv) of the existence theorem, αs is Gs-measurable by the same part, hence Fssys-measurable since Gs⊆Fssys by part (vii)(e), and bγ composed with them is measurable by the composition lemma; bγ(Ss,As) is a constant).
(1d) E[1m^tγm^tδ]=∫[0,t]E[Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs)]ds: this is the second identity of claim 4 of the stopped covariation lemma, with the pair of times 0≤t and D=Ω — the terms at time 0 vanishing since Mmin(0,τ)γ=M0γ=0 everywhere — multiplied by N, together with the Fubini theorem to exchange E and the time integral of the product-measurable bounded integrand Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs) (Step 0 and the preamble).
Step 2 (evolution of the stopped second-moment matrix). Fix γ,δ and set Ψ^γδ(t)=E[1s^tγs^tδ]. Expanding the product of the two stopped three-term representations of Step 1 — valid at every point of Ω0, which suffices under the factor 1 — and taking expectations termwise (all nine terms are bounded random variables by Step 0 and Step 1, hence integrable, absorbing repeated factors via 12=1):
the terms E[1s0γm^tδ] and E[1m^tγs0δ] vanishing by (1b). Now: 1F^tδ=F^tδ at every point of Ω (F^tδ vanishes off Ω0, its integrand carrying the factor 1), so E[1s0γF^tδ]=∫[0,t]E[Is1s0γ1gsδ]ds by the Fubini theorem (bounded product-measurable integrand: Step 0, the preamble, and part (iv) of the existence theorem for s0γ; the repeated factor 1 is absorbed by 12=1), and symmetrically E[1F^tγs0δ]=∫[0,t]E[Is1gsγ1s0δ]ds. Pathwise at every ω∈Ω, the integration by parts lemma on [0,t] with u0=v0=0 and densities Is1gsγ and Is1gsδ — measurable and bounded on [0,t] by Step 1, hence integrable there, the case t=0 being trivial — gives
F^tγF^tδ=∫[0,t]Is1(gsγF^sδ+F^sγgsδ)ds
(collecting the common factor Is1 from the two density terms), so E[1F^tγF^tδ]=∫[0,t]E[Is1(gsγF^sδ+F^sγgsδ)]ds (Fubini; ∣F^sγ∣≤4N(l−1)BT everywhere, and (s,ω)↦F^sγ is product-measurable, being the indefinite time integral of the bounded product-measurable family I1gγ, which is progressively measurable with respect to the constant filtration (F)t∈[0,T] — the subsets of [0,T]×Ω whose intersection with [0,t]×Ω lies in B[0,t]⊗F form a σ-algebra containing every measurable rectangle, hence all of B[0,T]⊗F — so that claims 4 and 1 of the progressive measurability toolkit apply). Also 1F^tγm^tδ=∫[0,t]Is1gsγ1m^tδds pathwise at every ω (the constant-in-s factor 1m^tδ moving inside the integral by linearity, with 12=1), so by the Fubini theorem (the integrand Is1gsγ1m^tδ is product-measurable and bounded by 4N(l−1)B⋅NKM) and (1c),
and symmetrically for E[1m^tγF^tδ]. Combining with (1d) and collecting the integrands via Is(s0δ+F^sδ+m^sδ)=Iss^sδ=Isssδ on Ω0 — the first equality by Step 1, the second because Is(ω)=1 forces s<τ(ω), whence min(s,τ(ω))=s and s^sδ(ω)=ssδ(ω) —
with Ψ^γδ(0)=E[s0γs0δ] (as min(0,τ)=0 pointwise and P(Ω0)=1) and each ψ^γδ bounded, and measurable by the same Fubini argument as in Step 0 applied to the bounded product-measurable integrands 1Igγsδ and I1Θγδ.
Step 3 (weighting by Z: part (b)). Fix t∈[0,T]; the case t=0 is trivial (both sides of (b) equal E[s0⋅Z0s0], as min(0,τ)=0), so let t>0. Apply the integration by parts lemma on [0,t] to u=Zγδ (with density z˙γδ, continuous, Riemann and Lebesgue integrals agreeing) and v=Ψ^γδ (with density ψ^γδ, from Step 2, bounded and measurable there, hence integrable):
Sum over γ,δ∈{1,…,l}. On the left, ∑γ,δZtγδΨ^γδ(t)=E[1s^t⋅Zts^t] by linearity of the expectation, while ∑γ,δZ0γδΨ^γδ(0)=E[s0⋅Z0s0] by the value of Ψ^γδ(0) recorded in Step 2. In the integrand, ∑γ,δz˙γδ(s)Ψ^γδ(s)=E[1s^s⋅z˙(s)s^s], while by the symmetry of Zs and relabeling of the summation indices,
and the remaining term is ∑γ,δZsγδE[Is1Θγδ(Σs,αs)]. Since Is=1{s<τ}, this is exactly the displayed identity of part (b).
Step 4 (part (c)). Fix t∈[0,T]; for t=0 both sides of (c) equal E[s0⋅Z0s0], so let t>0. Since Zuγδ=Z0γδ+∫0uz˙γδ(s)ds for every u∈[0,T], with the Riemann and Lebesgue integrals agreeing (claim 3 of the integral toolkit), claim 2 of the stopped-time-integral lemma — applied at each ω to the deterministic family (s,ω)↦z˙γδ(s), whose paths are continuous, hence measurable by claim 3 of the Borel toolkit, and bounded by the extreme value theorem — gives at every ω
the last equality by linearity. Multiply by the random variable 1s^tγs^tδ, constant in s, moving it inside the integral by linearity, and note: at every ω and every s∈[0,t] with 1−Is(ω)=1 — that is, τ(ω)≤s — one has min(t,τ(ω))=τ(ω)=min(s,τ(ω)), so s^tγ(ω)=s^sγ(ω) and s^tδ(ω)=s^sδ(ω). The integrands (1−Is)1s^tγs^tδz˙γδ(s) and (1−Is)1s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s) therefore coincide pointwise, giving at every ω
Take expectations, exchanging E with the time integral by the Fubini theorem (the integrand is product-measurable by Step 0 and claim 1 of the stopped-time-integral lemma, and bounded by 4N times the bound on z˙γδ), and sum over γ,δ:
where we split E[1(1−Is)s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)]=E[1s^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)]−E[1Iss^sγs^sδz˙γδ(s)] by linearity and used Iss^sγ=Isssγ (Step 2). Subtracting this display from the identity of part (b) — the difference of the two time integrals being the time integral of the difference, by linearity, all integrands being bounded measurable functions of s by part (a) — and combining the two remaining expectations in the integrand into one by linearity yields exactly the displayed identity of part (c). ■