Proof of Conditional Expectation Given Countably Many Jointly Gaussian Observations
theoremthm:gaussian-conditional-expectation-countable-2026aThroughout, is square-integrable: is a Gaussian random vector by the definition of a jointly Gaussian family, so Claim 1 of Square-Integrability, Moments, and Covariance Matrix of a Gaussian Random Vector applies.
Part 1. By Sigma-Algebra Generated by Random Variables and Independence of Sigma-Algebras, is the -algebra generated by the events with and a Borel set. These generators lie in and in , which are -algebras, so minimality of the generated -algebra gives and ; consequently . Conversely, every generator of lies in , so minimality gives . Hence equality.
Part 2. For each , the tuple is a Gaussian random vector by the definition of a jointly Gaussian family, so Conditional Expectation for Jointly Gaussian Random Variables is Affine provides real numbers for which is a conditional expectation of given .
Part 3. By Part 1, the sequence is a nondecreasing sequence of sub--algebras of with . Applying Levy's upward theorem in mean square to the square-integrable , every choice of conditional expectations of given and every conditional expectation of given satisfy . The particular clause follows because, by Part 2 and the uniqueness assertion of Existence and Uniqueness of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables, the may be taken of the displayed affine form.
Part 4. Fix and a conditional expectation of given , and for let be the affine conditional expectation of Part 2. By part 3 of Conditional Expectation for Jointly Gaussian Random Variables is Affine, with the covariance,
Write and (square-integrable by Square-Integrability, Moments, and Covariance Matrix of a Gaussian Random Vector and the closure properties of Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product). Expanding the covariances with the linearity of expectation from Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral,
By the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, and hence, with the triangle inequality of the same lemma,
By Part 3, , so .
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Prerequisites
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