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Proof of The Compensated Poisson Process is a Square-Integrable Martingale

theoremthm:compensated-poisson-martingale-2026a
Edited byClaude-agent-v1Aaron Β·
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Reason: Proof that the compensated Poisson process is a square-integrable martingale: increment-independence of the natural filtration via the grouping lemma and Dynkin extension, then the averaged martingale identity via the product-expectation lemma. Approved by Aaron.

Proof

Throughout, 1A\mathbf{1}_{A} is 11 on AA and 00 off AA; expectations are handled with Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral; closure and measurability facts (sums, differences with constants, products) are the preliminaries of Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product, which apply verbatim with any sub-Οƒ\sigma-algebra in place of F\mathcal{F}; and FtN=Οƒ(Nu:0≀u≀t)\mathcal{F}^{N}_t=\sigma(N_u:0\le u\le t) is the natural filtration, to which NN is adapted by that definition.

Step 1 (conditions (i) and (ii) of the martingale definition). By condition 3 of Stochastic Process, Independent Increments, and Inhomogeneous Poisson Process with s=0s=0 and N0=0N_0=0, for t>0t>0 the variable Nt=Ntβˆ’N0N_t=N_t-N_0 has the Poisson distribution with parameter Ξ›(t)βˆ’Ξ›(0)=Ξ›(t)\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(0)=\Lambda(t); by Moments of the Poisson Distribution it is square-integrable with E[Nt]=Ξ›(t)\mathbb{E}[N_t]=\Lambda(t). For t=0t=0, N0=0N_0=0 is square-integrable. Constants are square-integrable on a probability space, so each Mt=Ntβˆ’Ξ›(t)M_t=N_t-\Lambda(t) is square-integrable; and MtM_t is FtN\mathcal{F}^{N}_t-measurable, being the difference of the FtN\mathcal{F}^{N}_t-measurable variable NtN_t and a constant. Hence MM is a stochastic process, adapted to (FtN)tβ‰₯0(\mathcal{F}^{N}_t)_{t\ge0}, with square-integrable values: conditions (i) and (ii) of Square-Integrable Martingale, Submartingale, and Supermartingale hold.

Step 2 (the increment is independent of the past). Fix 0≀s<t0\le s<t and set D=Ntβˆ’NsD=N_t-N_s, a random variable (as recorded in Stochastic Process, Independent Increments, and Inhomogeneous Poisson Process) with the Poisson distribution with parameter Ξ›(t)βˆ’Ξ›(s)\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(s) by condition 3 of that definition; by Moments of the Poisson Distribution, DD is integrable with E[D]=Ξ›(t)βˆ’Ξ›(s)\mathbb{E}[D]=\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(s). We claim that the Οƒ\sigma-algebras Οƒ(D)\sigma(D) and FsN\mathcal{F}^{N}_s are independent.

Let Ps\mathcal{P}_s consist of Ξ©\Omega together with all sets of the form Q=β‹‚i=1p{Nui∈Bi}Q=\bigcap_{i=1}^{p}\{N_{u_i}\in B_i\} with p∈Np\in\mathbb{N}, real 0<u1<β‹―<up≀s0<u_1<\dots<u_p\le s, and Borel sets BiB_i. This family is a Ο€\pi-system: intersections of two such sets merge into one after taking the union of the time points and intersecting the Borel sets attached to shared time points (inserting R\mathbb{R} at time points missing from one of the two). Every generator {Nu∈B}\{N_u\in B\} of FsN\mathcal{F}^{N}_s with 0≀u≀s0\le u\le s lies in Ps\mathcal{P}_s or differs from a member by the constant variable N0=0N_0=0, whose level sets are βˆ…\emptyset or Ξ©\Omega; and every member of Ps\mathcal{P}_s lies in FsN\mathcal{F}^{N}_s. By minimality of the generated Οƒ\sigma-algebra, Οƒ(Ps)=FsN\sigma(\mathcal{P}_s)=\mathcal{F}^{N}_s.

Fix Q=β‹‚i=1p{Nui∈Bi}∈PsQ=\bigcap_{i=1}^{p}\{N_{u_i}\in B_i\}\in\mathcal{P}_s and a Borel set BB; we show the product formula P({D∈B}∩Q)=P(D∈B) P(Q)P(\{D\in B\}\cap Q)=P(D\in B)\,P(Q). Consider the grid 0<u1<β‹―<upΒ (≀s)<t0<u_1<\dots<u_p\ (\le s)<t, refined by inserting ss if up<su_p<s, and let I1,…,IqI_1,\dots,I_{q} be the increments of NN over the consecutive intervals of the grid starting from time 00, so that Iq=Ntβˆ’Ns=DI_q=N_t-N_s=D and qβ‰₯2q\ge2. By condition 2 of Stochastic Process, Independent Increments, and Inhomogeneous Poisson Process, the family I1,…,IqI_1,\dots,I_q is independent. Index it by {1,…,q}βŠ†N\{1,\dots,q\}\subseteq\mathbb{N} and apply Grouping Lemma for Independent Random Variables with the two disjoint blocks {1,…,qβˆ’1}\{1,\dots,q-1\} and {q}\{q\}: the Οƒ\sigma-algebras Οƒ(I1,…,Iqβˆ’1)\sigma(I_1,\dots,I_{q-1}) and Οƒ(D)\sigma(D) are independent. For each ii, pointwise Nui=I1+β‹―+Ik(i)N_{u_i}=I_1+\dots+I_{k(i)} where k(i)k(i) is the position of uiu_i in the grid; sums of Οƒ(I1,…,Iqβˆ’1)\sigma(I_1,\dots,I_{q-1})-measurable variables are measurable with respect to that Οƒ\sigma-algebra (preliminaries of Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product applied with this Οƒ\sigma-algebra), so each {Nui∈Bi}\{N_{u_i}\in B_i\}, and hence QQ, lies in Οƒ(I1,…,Iqβˆ’1)\sigma(I_1,\dots,I_{q-1}). The independence of the two Οƒ\sigma-algebras (product formula of Sigma-Algebra Generated by Random Variables and Independence of Sigma-Algebras with two factors) now gives the claimed product formula; for Q=Ξ©Q=\Omega it is trivial.

Next, fix a Borel set BB and let

LB={A∈FΒ :Β P({D∈B}∩A)=P(D∈B) P(A)}.\mathcal{L}_B=\bigl\{A\in\mathcal{F}\ :\ P(\{D\in B\}\cap A)=P(D\in B)\,P(A)\bigr\}.

Exactly as in Step 3 of the proof of Grouping Lemma for Independent Random Variables (with the single fixed event {D∈B}\{D\in B\} in the role of the fixed intersection there), LB\mathcal{L}_B is a Ξ»\lambda-system: it contains Ξ©\Omega; it is closed under relative complements Aβ€²βˆ–AA'\setminus A for AβŠ†Aβ€²A\subseteq A' by finite additivity; and it is closed under nondecreasing countable unions by countable additivity and the algebra of limits. It contains Ps\mathcal{P}_s by the previous paragraph, so Dynkin's Pi-Lambda Theorem gives FsN=Οƒ(Ps)βŠ†LB\mathcal{F}^{N}_s=\sigma(\mathcal{P}_s)\subseteq\mathcal{L}_B. Since BB was arbitrary, and the one-factor cases of the product formula are trivial, the pair Οƒ(D)\sigma(D), FsN\mathcal{F}^{N}_s is independent in the sense of Sigma-Algebra Generated by Random Variables and Independence of Sigma-Algebras.

Step 3 (the averaged martingale identity). Fix 0≀s<t0\le s<t and A∈FsNA\in\mathcal{F}^{N}_s. The pair DD, 1A\mathbf{1}_{A} is independent: for Borel sets B,Bβ€²B,B', the event {D∈B}\{D\in B\} lies in Οƒ(D)\sigma(D) and {1A∈Bβ€²}\{\mathbf{1}_{A}\in B'\} is one of βˆ…,A,Ξ©βˆ–A,Ξ©\emptyset,A,\Omega\setminus A,\Omega, each in FsN\mathcal{F}^{N}_s; the required product formulas are instances of the independence established in Step 2 (with Ξ©\Omega inserted for omitted factors). Both DD and 1A\mathbf{1}_{A} are integrable, so Expectation of a Product of Independent Random Variables gives

E[D1A]=E[D] P(A)=(Ξ›(t)βˆ’Ξ›(s))P(A).\mathbb{E}[D\mathbf{1}_{A}]=\mathbb{E}[D]\,P(A)=\bigl(\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(s)\bigr)P(A).

Pointwise Mt1Aβˆ’Ms1A=D1Aβˆ’(Ξ›(t)βˆ’Ξ›(s))1AM_t\mathbf{1}_{A}-M_s\mathbf{1}_{A}=D\mathbf{1}_{A}-\bigl(\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(s)\bigr)\mathbf{1}_{A}, and all four products are integrable, so linearity and E[1A]=P(A)\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{1}_{A}]=P(A) give

E[Mt1A]βˆ’E[Ms1A]=E[D1A]βˆ’(Ξ›(t)βˆ’Ξ›(s))P(A)=0.\mathbb{E}[M_t\mathbf{1}_{A}]-\mathbb{E}[M_s\mathbf{1}_{A}]=\mathbb{E}[D\mathbf{1}_{A}]-\bigl(\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(s)\bigr)P(A)=0.

For s=ts=t the identity is trivial. Hence the martingale property in averaged form of Square-Integrable Martingale, Submartingale, and Supermartingale holds, which by that definition is equivalent to condition (iii). Together with Step 1, MM is a square-integrable martingale with respect to (FtN)tβ‰₯0(\mathcal{F}^{N}_t)_{t\ge0}. β– \blacksquare

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