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Proof of Conditional Expectation and Estimation Error of the Controlled State

lemmalem:controlled-state-conditional-expectation-2026a
Edited byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
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Reason: Proof of lem:controlled-state-conditional-expectation-2026a (separation-theorem block D1). Internally reviewed and validated; approved by Aaron on 2026-07-31.

Proof

Claim 1. Each component family of mfm^{\mathrm f} is mean-square continuous, since mfm^{\mathrm f} is a mean-square solution by claim 2 of The Kalman-Bucy Filter Equation and Its Solution and mean-square continuity is part of that definition; each component family of cc is mean-square continuous by claim 1 of Superposition Decomposition of the Controlled State and Observations. Sums of mean-square continuous families are mean-square continuous (claim 1 of Basic Properties of the Mean-Square Riemann Integral), so each (X^ti)t(\widehat X^{i}_t)_t is mean-square continuous. By claim 3 of The Kalman-Bucy Filter Equation and Its Solution, each (mtf)i(m^{\mathrm f}_t)^{i} is almost surely equal to a Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable square-integrable random variable; by claim 3 of Superposition Decomposition of the Controlled State and Observations, so is each ctic^{i}_t; and finite linear combinations preserve this property by claim 2 of The Closed Mean-Square Span of a Family of Random Variables.

Claim 2. Fix tt and ii. By claim 2 of Superposition Decomposition of the Controlled State and Observations, Xtα,i=Xti+ctiX^{\alpha,i}_t=X^{i}_t+c^{i}_t almost surely. Since a conditional expectation of a square-integrable random variable given Gt\mathcal{G}_t depends on that random variable only through its almost sure class (the defining conditions involve only expectations, which are unchanged under almost sure modification), it suffices to identify the conditional expectations of Xti+ctiX^{i}_t+c^{i}_t. By claim 1 of The Kalman-Bucy Filter Computes the Conditional Expectation in the Linear-Gaussian Model, some (hence, up to almost sure equality, every, by the uniqueness in Existence and Uniqueness of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables) conditional expectation Y1Y_1 of XtiX^{i}_t given Gt\mathcal{G}_t satisfies Y1=(mtf)iY_1=(m^{\mathrm f}_t)^{i} almost surely. Let c~\tilde c be a Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable square-integrable version of ctic^{i}_t (claim 3 of Superposition Decomposition of the Controlled State and Observations). Directly from Conditional Expectation of a Square-Integrable Random Variable, c~\tilde c is a conditional expectation of itself given Gt\mathcal{G}_t: it is Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable, square-integrable, and the defining conditions hold trivially. By linearity (claim 1 of Basic Properties of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables), Y1+c~Y_1+\tilde c is a conditional expectation of Xti+c~X^{i}_t+\tilde c given Gt\mathcal{G}_t, hence of Xtα,iX^{\alpha,i}_t (almost surely equal random variables). By the uniqueness in Existence and Uniqueness of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables, every conditional expectation of Xtα,iX^{\alpha,i}_t given Gt\mathcal{G}_t is almost surely equal to Y1+c~=(mtf)i+cti=X^tiY_1+\tilde c=(m^{\mathrm f}_t)^{i}+c^{i}_t=\widehat X^{i}_t almost surely.

Claim 3. Almost surely, Xtα,iX^ti=(Xti+cti)((mtf)i+cti)=Xti(mtf)i=etiX^{\alpha,i}_t-\widehat X^{i}_t=(X^{i}_t+c^{i}_t)-\bigl((m^{\mathrm f}_t)^{i}+c^{i}_t\bigr)=X^{i}_t-(m^{\mathrm f}_t)^{i}=e^{i}_t, by claim 2 of Superposition Decomposition of the Controlled State and Observations. The remaining assertions are exactly claims 2 and 3 of The Kalman-Bucy Filter Computes the Conditional Expectation in the Linear-Gaussian Model.

Claim 4. Let ζ~\tilde\zeta be a Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable random variable almost surely equal to ζ\zeta; it is square-integrable, since ζ~=ζ\tilde\zeta=\zeta almost surely and second moments are unchanged under almost sure modification. Each etie^{i}_t is measurable with respect to σ(et1,,etl)\sigma(e^{1}_t,\dots,e^{l}_t), since by Sigma-Algebra Generated by Random Variables and Independence of Sigma-Algebras that σ\sigma-algebra contains the preimages of Borel sets under each component. By claim 3, σ(et1,,etl)\sigma(e^{1}_t,\dots,e^{l}_t) and Gt\mathcal{G}_t are independent; since every preimage of a Borel set under etie^{i}_t lies in the former σ\sigma-algebra and every preimage under ζ~\tilde\zeta lies in the latter, the random variables etie^{i}_t and ζ~\tilde\zeta are independent. Both are square-integrable, hence integrable, so by Expectation of a Product of Independent Random Variables the product etiζ~e^{i}_t\tilde\zeta is integrable with E[etiζ~]=E[eti]E[ζ~]=0\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t\tilde\zeta]=\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t]\,\mathbb{E}[\tilde\zeta]=0, since E[eti]=0\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t]=0 by claim 3. Finally etiζ=etiζ~e^{i}_t\zeta=e^{i}_t\tilde\zeta almost surely, so etiζe^{i}_t\zeta is integrable with E[etiζ]=0\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t\zeta]=0. \square

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