The Kalman-Bucy Filter Computes the Conditional Expectation in the Linear-Gaussian Model
theoremProbabilitythm:kalman-bucy-conditional-expectation-2026aConsider a linear-Gaussian state-observation model on , with notation and fixed versions as there, and let , , and the filter process be as in The Kalman-Bucy Filter Equation and Its Solution. Write (componentwise) for the estimation error. Then, for every :
1. (Conditional expectation) For every , every conditional expectation of given is almost surely equal to :
2. (Error covariance) With the expectation and covariance, for every , and
3. (Independence of the error from the observations) The -algebras and are independent; in particular for all and all .
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