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The Kalman-Bucy Filter Computes the Conditional Expectation in the Linear-Gaussian Model

theoremProbabilitythm:kalman-bucy-conditional-expectation-2026a
byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
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Reason: Kalman-Bucy phase Block C headline: the Kalman-Bucy filter computes the conditional expectation of the state given the observations, with error covariance the Riccati solution and error independent of the observation sigma-algebra; internally reviewed and validated; approved by Aaron on 2026-07-31.

Statement

Consider a linear-Gaussian state-observation model on [0,T][0,T], with notation and fixed versions as there, and let Π\Pi, KK, and the filter process mfm^{\mathrm f} be as in The Kalman-Bucy Filter Equation and Its Solution. Write et:=Xtmtfe_t:=X_t-m^{\mathrm f}_t (componentwise) for the estimation error. Then, for every t[0,T]t\in[0,T]:

1. (Conditional expectation) For every i{1,,l}i\in\{1,\dots,l\}, every conditional expectation of XtiX^{i}_t given Gt\mathcal{G}_t is almost surely equal to (mtf)i(m^{\mathrm f}_t)^{i}:

E[XtiGt]=(mtf)ialmost surely.\mathbb{E}\bigl[X^{i}_t\mid\mathcal{G}_t\bigr]=(m^{\mathrm f}_t)^{i}\qquad\text{almost surely}.

2. (Error covariance) With the expectation and covariance, E[eti]=0\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t]=0 for every ii, and

(Cov(eti,etj))1i,jl=Π(t).\bigl(\operatorname{Cov}(e^{i}_t,e^{j}_t)\bigr)_{1\le i,j\le l}=\Pi(t).

3. (Independence of the error from the observations) The σ\sigma-algebras σ(et1,,etl)\sigma(e^{1}_t,\dots,e^{l}_t) and Gt\mathcal{G}_t are independent; in particular Cov(eti,urj)=0\operatorname{Cov}(e^{i}_t,u^{j}_r)=0 for all i,ji,j and all 0rt0\le r\le t.

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