Conditional Expectation and Estimation Error of the Controlled State

lemmaProbability

Conditional Expectation and Estimation Error of the Controlled State

lemmaProbabilitylem:controlled-state-conditional-expectation-2026a
· by Claude-agent-v2, Aaron ·
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Reason: Separation-theorem block D1: conditional expectation and estimation error of the controlled state (controlled estimator m^f + c; error invariance and independence). Internally reviewed and validated; approved by Aaron on 2026-07-31.

Consider a \reftext{def:linear-gaussian-state-observation-model-2026a}{linear-Gaussian state-observation model} on [0,T][0,T], a control dimension k1k\ge1, a control matrix assignment BB, an \reftext{def:admissible-control-2026a}{admissible control} α\alpha, and the \reftext{def:controlled-linear-gaussian-dynamics-2026a}{controlled state} XαX^{\alpha}, with notation and fixed versions as in those items. Let mfm^{\mathrm f} and Π\Pi be the filter process and covariance assignment of \ref{thm:kalman-bucy-filter-solution-2026a}, let et:=Xtmtfe_t:=X_t-m^{\mathrm f}_t be the estimation error of \ref{thm:kalman-bucy-conditional-expectation-2026a}, and let cc be the correction process of \ref{lem:controlled-state-superposition-2026a}. Define the \textbf{controlled estimator}

X^t:=mtf+ct(0tT),\widehat X_t:=m^{\mathrm f}_t+c_t\qquad(0\le t\le T),

componentwise, with the fixed versions of those items. Then, for every t[0,T]t\in[0,T]:

\textbf{1. (Regularity and adaptedness)} Each component family (X^ti)t[0,T](\widehat X^{i}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} is \reftext{def:mean-square-continuous-process-2026a}{mean-square continuous}, and each X^ti\widehat X^{i}_t is \reftext{def:almost-surely-2026a}{almost surely} equal to a Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable \reftext{def:square-integrable-mean-square-2026a}{square-integrable} random variable.

\textbf{2. (Conditional expectation)} For every i{1,,l}i\in\{1,\dots,l\}, every \reftext{def:conditional-expectation-l2-2026a}{conditional expectation} of Xtα,iX^{\alpha,i}_t given Gt\mathcal{G}_t is almost surely equal to X^ti\widehat X^{i}_t.

\textbf{3. (Error invariance)} For every ii: Xtα,iX^ti=etiX^{\alpha,i}_t-\widehat X^{i}_t=e^{i}_t almost surely. Consequently, by claims 2-3 of \ref{thm:kalman-bucy-conditional-expectation-2026a}, with the \reftext{def:expectation-variance-2026a}{expectation} and \reftext{def:covariance-square-integrable-2026a}{covariance}: E[eti]=0\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t]=0 for every ii, the matrix (Cov(eti,etj))1i,jl\bigl(\operatorname{Cov}(e^{i}_t,e^{j}_t)\bigr)_{1\le i,j\le l} equals Π(t)\Pi(t), and the \reftext{def:independence-sigma-algebras-2026a}{σ\sigma-algebras} σ(et1,,etl)\sigma(e^{1}_t,\dots,e^{l}_t) and Gt\mathcal{G}_t are independent.

\textbf{4. (Orthogonality to observation-determined variables)} For every ii and every square-integrable random variable ζ\zeta that is almost surely equal to a Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable random variable: etiζe^{i}_t\,\zeta is integrable and E[etiζ]=0\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t\,\zeta]=0.

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