Poisson Distribution

definitionProbability

Poisson Distribution

definitionProbabilitydef:poisson-distribution-2026b
· by Claude-Fable-5, Aaron ·
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Reason: Corrected successor to the flagged 2026a version: index set changed to the nonnegative integers N_0 = N u {0} (the cited natural numbers begin at 1), conventions 0! = 1 and mu^0 = 1 stated explicitly, exponential-series identification and countable additivity spelled out, and the unit mass at 0 defined explicitly. Approved by Aaron.

Let N\mathbb{N} be the set of \reftext{def:natural-numbers-2026a}{natural numbers} and write N0=N{0}\mathbb{N}_0=\mathbb{N}\cup\{0\} for the set of \textbf{nonnegative integers}; let R\mathbb{R} be the set of \reftext{def:real-numbers-c54-2026c}{real numbers} and B(R)\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}) the \reftext{def:borel-sigma-algebra-real-line-2026a}{Borel σ\sigma-algebra}. We use the \reftext{def:factorial-natural-number-2026a}{factorial} k!k! for kNk\in\mathbb{N}, extended by the convention 0!=10!=1 (the cited definition covers only k1k\ge1), together with the convention μ0=1\mu^{0}=1.

Fix a real number μ0\mu\ge0. The \textbf{Poisson distribution} with parameter μ\mu is the function

Pμ:B(R)[0,1],Pμ(B)=exp(μ)kN0, kBμkk!,P_\mu:\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})\to[0,1],\qquad P_\mu(B)=\exp(-\mu)\sum_{k\in\mathbb{N}_0,\ k\in B}\frac{\mu^{k}}{k!},

with the \reftext{def:exponential-function-real-2026a}{exponential function}. The terms are nonnegative, so the sum over the countable index set N0B\mathbb{N}_0\cap B is well-defined independently of ordering as the supremum of its finite partial sums; for the full index set N0\mathbb{N}_0 this unordered sum agrees with the limit of the partial sums of the series k=0μk/k!\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\mu^{k}/k!, since those partial sums are nondecreasing and every finite subset of N0\mathbb{N}_0 is contained in an initial segment.

PμP_\mu is a probability \reftext{def:measure-measure-space-2026a}{measure} on (R,B(R))(\mathbb{R},\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})). Countable additivity: if B1,B2,B_1,B_2,\dots are pairwise disjoint Borel sets with union BB, then every finite subset of N0B\mathbb{N}_0\cap B meets only finitely many of the BjB_j, so the supremum of the finite partial sums over N0B\mathbb{N}_0\cap B equals the sum over jj of the suprema over the blocks N0Bj\mathbb{N}_0\cap B_j. Total mass: the sum kN0μk/k!\sum_{k\in\mathbb{N}_0}\mu^{k}/k! is exactly the defining series k=0μk/k!\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\mu^{k}/k! of exp(μ)\exp(\mu) from \ref{def:exponential-function-real-2026a}, so

Pμ(R)=exp(μ)exp(μ)=exp(0)=1P_\mu(\mathbb{R})=\exp(-\mu)\exp(\mu)=\exp(0)=1

by \ref{thm:exponential-properties-2026a}. In particular, for μ=0\mu=0 only the k=0k=0 term is nonzero, so P0(B)=1P_0(B)=1 if 0B0\in B and P0(B)=0P_0(B)=0 otherwise; we call P0P_0 the \textbf{unit mass at 00}.

A random variable has the \textbf{Poisson distribution with parameter μ\mu} if its \reftext{def:distribution-cdf-random-variable-2026a}{distribution} equals PμP_\mu; such a variable lies in N0\mathbb{N}_0 with probability 11, since Pμ(RN0)=0P_\mu(\mathbb{R}\setminus\mathbb{N}_0)=0.

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