TheoremBase

Poisson Distribution

Statement

Let N\mathbb{N} be the set of natural numbers and write N0=N∪{0}\mathbb{N}_0=\mathbb{N}\cup\{0\} for the set of nonnegative integers; let R\mathbb{R} be the set of real numbers and B(R)\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}) the Borel σ\sigma-algebra. We use the factorial k!k! for k∈Nk\in\mathbb{N}, extended by the convention 0!=10!=1 (the cited definition covers only k≥1k\ge1), together with the convention μ0=1\mu^{0}=1.

Fix a real number μ≥0\mu\ge0. The Poisson distribution with parameter μ\mu is the function

Pμ:B(R)→[0,1],Pμ(B)=exp⁡(−μ)∑k∈N0, k∈Bμkk!,P_\mu:\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})\to[0,1],\qquad P_\mu(B)=\exp(-\mu)\sum_{k\in\mathbb{N}_0,\ k\in B}\frac{\mu^{k}}{k!},

with the exponential function. The terms are nonnegative, so the sum over the countable index set N0∩B\mathbb{N}_0\cap B is well-defined independently of ordering as the supremum of its finite partial sums; for the full index set N0\mathbb{N}_0 this unordered sum agrees with the limit of the partial sums of the series ∑k=0∞μk/k!\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\mu^{k}/k!, since those partial sums are nondecreasing and every finite subset of N0\mathbb{N}_0 is contained in an initial segment.

PμP_\mu is a probability measure on (R,B(R))(\mathbb{R},\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})). Countable additivity: if B1,B2,…B_1,B_2,\dots are pairwise disjoint Borel sets with union BB, then every finite subset of N0∩B\mathbb{N}_0\cap B meets only finitely many of the BjB_j, so the supremum of the finite partial sums over N0∩B\mathbb{N}_0\cap B equals the sum over jj of the suprema over the blocks N0∩Bj\mathbb{N}_0\cap B_j. Total mass: the sum ∑k∈N0μk/k!\sum_{k\in\mathbb{N}_0}\mu^{k}/k! is exactly the defining series ∑k=0∞μk/k!\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\mu^{k}/k! of exp⁡(μ)\exp(\mu) from The Real Exponential Function, so

Pμ(R)=exp⁡(−μ)exp⁡(μ)=exp⁡(0)=1P_\mu(\mathbb{R})=\exp(-\mu)\exp(\mu)=\exp(0)=1

by Basic Properties of the Exponential Function. In particular, for μ=0\mu=0 only the k=0k=0 term is nonzero, so P0(B)=1P_0(B)=1 if 0∈B0\in B and P0(B)=0P_0(B)=0 otherwise; we call P0P_0 the unit mass at 00.

A random variable has the Poisson distribution with parameter μ\mu if its distribution equals PμP_\mu; such a variable lies in N0\mathbb{N}_0 with probability 11, since Pμ(R∖N0)=0P_\mu(\mathbb{R}\setminus\mathbb{N}_0)=0.

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