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Restricted First Moments and Tail Bounds for the Martingale Part of the Empirical State Measure

lemmaProbabilitylem:n-agent-martingale-restricted-moments-2026a
byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
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Reason: F3.4: fourth-moment and restricted first-moment bounds for the aggregate martingale; approved by Aaron.

Statement

Adopt the setting of the moment bounds for the aggregate compensated counters with NN agents, ll states, l~\tilde{l} observation channels, and control dimension mm: a transition-rate family β\beta with control set A\mathcal{A}, a nonempty subset of Euclidean space Rm\mathbb{R}^m, and rate bound BB, an observation-rate family β~\tilde{\beta}, a horizon T>0T>0, an NN-agent driving system (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P), an observation-driven control policy hh which is A\mathcal{A}-valued, and a solution on [0,T][0,T] with regular event Ω0\Omega_0, empirical state measure Σt\Sigma_t, and control αt\alpha_t. Let bb be the aggregate state drift of β\beta and let Mt=(Mtγ)γ{1,,l}M_t=(M^\gamma_t)_{\gamma\in\{1,\dots,l\}} be the martingale part of the martingale decomposition of the empirical state measure, so that Mtγ=ΣtγΣ0γ[0,t]1Ω0bγ(Σs,αs)dsM^\gamma_t=\Sigma^\gamma_t-\Sigma^\gamma_0-\int_{[0,t]}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\,b^\gamma(\Sigma_s,\alpha_s)\,ds at every point of Ω\Omega, where 1D\mathbf{1}_{D} denotes the function equal to 11 on a set DD and 00 off it. Write |\cdot| for the Euclidean norm (Euclidean distance to the origin), E\mathbb{E} for the expectation, [0,t]ds\int_{[0,t]}\cdot\,ds for the Lebesgue integral over the compact interval [0,t][0,t], and let

cM=6l2(2(l1))4,κT=BT+(BT)2,KM=2+2(l1)BT.c_M=6\,l^2\big(2(l-1)\big)^4,\qquad \kappa_T=BT+(BT)^2,\qquad K_M=2+2(l-1)BT .

For a nonnegative real xx, x1/4x^{1/4} denotes the nonnegative fourth root, the nonnegative square root applied twice, x3/4=(x1/4)3x^{3/4}=(x^{1/4})^3, and for x>0x>0, x1/2x^{-1/2} is the reciprocal of the nonnegative square root; by the uniqueness of nonnegative square roots, the nonnegative square root, and hence also xx1/4x\mapsto x^{1/4}, is multiplicative and nondecreasing on [0,)[0,\infty).

(a) (A Hölder-type inequality.) Let XX be a random variable on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) with X0X\ge0 pointwise and E[X4]<\mathbb{E}[X^4]<\infty, and let DFD\in\mathcal{F} be an event (the letter FF is avoided for events, being the mean-field cost in companion results). Then 1DX\mathbf{1}_DX is integrable and

E[1DX]  P(D)3/4E[X4]1/4.\mathbb{E}\big[\mathbf{1}_D\,X\big]\ \le\ P(D)^{3/4}\,\mathbb{E}\big[X^4\big]^{1/4}.

(b) (Measurability and fourth moments.) For every γ\gamma the map (t,ω)1Ω0(ω)Mtγ(ω)(t,\omega)\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}(\omega)M^\gamma_t(\omega) on [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega is measurable with respect to the product σ\sigma-algebra of the trace Borel σ\sigma-algebra on [0,T][0,T] and F\mathcal{F}, and 1Ω0MtγKM|\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}M^\gamma_t|\le K_M everywhere. For every ωΩ\omega\in\Omega the path t1Ω0(ω)Mt(ω)t\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}(\omega)|M_t(\omega)| is measurable and bounded on [0,T][0,T], and

I(ω)=[0,T]1Ω0(ω)Mt(ω)dtI(\omega)=\int_{[0,T]}\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}(\omega)\,|M_t(\omega)|\,dt

defines a random variable with 0IlKMT0\le I\le\sqrt{l}\,K_MT; it equals [0,T]Mt(ω)dt\int_{[0,T]}|M_t(\omega)|\,dt for ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0 and 00 for ωΩ0\omega\notin\Omega_0 (for ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0 it is the quantity MT(ω)\mathcal{M}_T(\omega) of Pointwise-in-Time Tracking of the Mean-Field Flow and Cost along the Realized Control of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics, when the setting of that lemma is in force). Moreover, for every t[0,T]t\in[0,T],

E[Mt4]cMκTN2andE[I4]T4cMκTN2.\mathbb{E}\big[|M_t|^4\big]\le c_M\,\kappa_T\,N^{-2}\qquad\text{and}\qquad \mathbb{E}\big[I^4\big]\le T^4\,c_M\,\kappa_T\,N^{-2}.

(c) (Restricted first moments.) For every event DFD\in\mathcal{F} and every t[0,T]t\in[0,T],

E[1DMt](cMκT)1/4N1/2P(D)3/4andE[1DI]T(cMκT)1/4N1/2P(D)3/4.\mathbb{E}\big[\mathbf{1}_D\,|M_t|\big]\le(c_M\kappa_T)^{1/4}\,N^{-1/2}\,P(D)^{3/4}\qquad\text{and}\qquad \mathbb{E}\big[\mathbf{1}_D\,I\big]\le T\,(c_M\kappa_T)^{1/4}\,N^{-1/2}\,P(D)^{3/4}.

(d) (Tail bounds.) For every real ϵ>0\epsilon>0 and every t[0,T]t\in[0,T],

P(Mtϵ)cMκTϵ4N2andP(Iϵ)T4cMκTϵ4N2.P\big(|M_t|\ge\epsilon\big)\le c_M\,\kappa_T\,\epsilon^{-4}N^{-2}\qquad\text{and}\qquad P\big(I\ge\epsilon\big)\le T^4\,c_M\,\kappa_T\,\epsilon^{-4}N^{-2}.
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