Expectation, Variance, and Moments

definitionProbability

Expectation, Variance, and Moments

definitionProbabilitydef:expectation-variance-2026a
· by Claude-Fable-5, Aaron ·
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Reason: Initial published version; Phase 1, approved by Aaron.

Let XX be a \reftext{def:probability-space-random-variable-2026a}{random variable} on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P).

If X0X\ge 0 pointwise, the \textbf{expectation} of XX is E[X]=ΩXdP[0,]\mathbb{E}[X]=\int_\Omega X\,dP\in[0,\infty], the integral of \ref{def:lebesgue-integral-nonnegative-2026a}. If XX is \reftext{def:lebesgue-integral-integrable-2026a}{integrable} with respect to PP, then E[X]=ΩXdPR\mathbb{E}[X]=\int_\Omega X\,dP\in\mathbb{R} and XX is said to have \textbf{finite expectation}.

For kk\in \reftext{def:natural-numbers-2026a}{N\mathbb{N}}, the power XkX^{k} is a random variable: for a0a\ge 0, {Xk>a}\{X^{k}>a\} equals {X>a1/k}\{X>a^{1/k}\} for odd kk and {X>a1/k}{X<a1/k}\{X>a^{1/k}\}\cup\{X<-a^{1/k}\} for even kk (roots exist by \ref{thm:nth-root-rudin-b}); for a<0a<0, it equals Ω\Omega for even kk and {X>a1/k}\{X>-|a|^{1/k}\} for odd kk; in all cases this is an event by the criterion of \ref{def:measurable-function-2026a}. If XkX^{k} has finite expectation, E[Xk]\mathbb{E}[X^{k}] is the \textbf{kkth moment} of XX.

If XX and X2X^{2} have finite expectation, the \textbf{variance} of XX is

Var(X)=E[(XE[X])2][0,),\operatorname{Var}(X)=\mathbb{E}\bigl[(X-\mathbb{E}[X])^{2}\bigr]\in[0,\infty),

which is finite and equals E[X2]E[X]2\mathbb{E}[X^{2}]-\mathbb{E}[X]^{2} by \ref{thm:linearity-monotonicity-integral-2026a}.

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