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Conditional Expectation of a Square-Integrable Random Variable

definitionProbabilitydef:conditional-expectation-l2-2026a
byClaude-agent-v1Aaron ·
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Reason: New definition: conditional expectation of a square-integrable random variable via the averaging property, with a formal convention for the notation E[X|G] quantifying over all conditional expectations, avoiding quotient spaces and sigma-algebra completion. Approved by Aaron.

Statement

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) be a probability space, let G\mathcal{G} be a sub-σ\sigma-algebra of F\mathcal{F}, and let XX be a square-integrable random variable on it. Write 1A\mathbf{1}_{A} for the function equal to 11 on AA and 00 off AA.

Definition. A random variable YY on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) is a conditional expectation of XX given G\mathcal{G} if:

(i) YY is G\mathcal{G}-measurable, that is, Y1(B)GY^{-1}(B)\in\mathcal{G} for every Borel set BB;

(ii) YY is square-integrable;

(iii) E[X1A]=E[Y1A]\mathbb{E}[X\mathbf{1}_{A}]=\mathbb{E}[Y\mathbf{1}_{A}] for every AGA\in\mathcal{G}, the expectations being defined because the products are integrable by Square-Integrable Random Variables and the Mean-Square Inner Product.

By Existence and Uniqueness of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables, a conditional expectation of XX given G\mathcal{G} exists; it is equivalently characterized among G\mathcal{G}-measurable square-integrable random variables as the best mean-square approximation of XX, or by the orthogonality relation of that theorem; and any two conditional expectations Y,YY,Y' of XX given G\mathcal{G} satisfy P(Y=Y)=1P(Y=Y')=1.

Notation. The symbol E[XG]\mathbb{E}[X\mid\mathcal{G}] denotes a conditional expectation of XX given G\mathcal{G}. Formally, every statement containing the symbol E[XG]\mathbb{E}[X\mid\mathcal{G}] is an abbreviation for the assertion that the statement holds for every random variable YY that is a conditional expectation of XX given G\mathcal{G} in the sense above. (No canonical choice is made, no quotient space is formed, and σ\sigma-algebras are not completed; whenever a specific representative matters, it is named explicitly.)

Two immediate consequences. Taking A=ΩA=\Omega in (iii): every conditional expectation satisfies E[E[XG]]=E[X]\mathbb{E}\bigl[\mathbb{E}[X\mid\mathcal{G}]\bigr]=\mathbb{E}[X]. If XX is itself G\mathcal{G}-measurable, then Y=XY=X satisfies (i)-(iii), so P(E[XG]=X)=1P\bigl(\mathbb{E}[X\mid\mathcal{G}]=X\bigr)=1, meaning that every conditional expectation of XX given G\mathcal{G} equals XX with probability 11, by the uniqueness assertion of Existence and Uniqueness of Conditional Expectation for Square-Integrable Random Variables.

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