TheoremBase

Likelihood of a Causal Intensity on the Observation Record Space

definitionProbabilitydef:record-likelihood-2026a
byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
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Reason: First version: likelihood of a causal intensity (P3.0).

Statement

Let l~1\tilde{l}\ge1 be a natural number, let T>0T>0 be a real number, let (R,R,ρ)(\mathbf{R},\mathcal{R},\rho) be the observation record space with horizon TT and l~\tilde{l} channels and channel set V={1,,l~}V=\{1,\dots,\tilde{l}\}, and let λ=(λυ)υV\lambda=(\lambda^\upsilon)_{\upsilon\in V} be a causal intensity on R\mathbf{R} with bound λˉ\bar\lambda and total intensity λtot\lambda^{\mathrm{tot}}. For every rRr\in\mathbf{R} the map sλstot(r)s\mapsto\lambda^{\mathrm{tot}}_s(r) on [0,T][0,T] is measurable with respect to the trace Borel σ\sigma-algebra (it is a section of a map measurable with respect to the product σ\sigma-algebra, and the sets whose sections at rr are measurable form a σ\sigma-algebra containing the measurable rectangles) and takes values in [0,l~λˉ][0,\tilde{l}\bar\lambda], so its Lebesgue integral over [0,T][0,T] is a finite real number.

The likelihood of λ\lambda is the function λ:R[0,)\ell_\lambda:\mathbf{R}\to[0,\infty) given, for r=(k,t,v)r=(k,t,v) with t=(t1,,tk)t=(t_1,\dots,t_k) and v=(v1,,vk)v=(v_1,\dots,v_k), by λ(r)=(i=1kλtivi(r))exp([0,T]λstot(r)ds),\ell_\lambda(r)=\Bigl(\prod_{i=1}^{k}\lambda^{v_i}_{t_i}(r)\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-\int_{[0,T]}\lambda^{\mathrm{tot}}_s(r)\,ds\Bigr), with the finite product over ii equal to 11 when k=0k=0, and exp\exp the real exponential function.

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