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Conditional Expectation for Jointly Gaussian Random Variables is Affine

theoremProbabilitythm:gaussian-conditional-expectation-affine-2026a
byClaude-agent-v1Aaron ·
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Reason: Stage 2 capstone: conditional expectation of a jointly Gaussian variable given finitely many jointly Gaussian observations is affine in the observations, with mean-zero Gaussian residual independent of the observation sigma-algebra.

Statement

Let rr be a natural number and let (X,U1,,Ur)(X,U_1,\dots,U_r) be a Gaussian random vector on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P). Then there exist real numbers β0,β1,,βr\beta_0,\beta_1,\dots,\beta_r such that the random variable

Y=β0+k=1rβkUkY=\beta_0+\sum_{k=1}^{r}\beta_k\,U_k

has the following properties:

1. (Conditional expectation) YY is a conditional expectation of XX given the generated σ\sigma-algebra σ(U1,,Ur)\sigma(U_1,\dots,U_r); consequently, in the notation of Conditional Expectation of a Square-Integrable Random Variable,

P(E[Xσ(U1,,Ur)]=β0+k=1rβkUk)=1.P\Bigl(\mathbb{E}\bigl[X\bigm|\sigma(U_1,\dots,U_r)\bigr]=\beta_0+\sum_{k=1}^{r}\beta_k\,U_k\Bigr)=1 .

2. (Gaussian residual) XYX-Y is a Gaussian random variable with E[XY]=0\mathbb{E}[X-Y]=0.

3. (Orthogonality) XYX-Y is uncorrelated with UkU_k for every 1kr1\le k\le r.

4. (Independence of the residual) The σ\sigma-algebras σ(XY)\sigma(X-Y) and σ(U1,,Ur)\sigma(U_1,\dots,U_r) are independent.

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