Series Formula, Exponential Moments, and Chernoff Tail Bounds for the Poisson Distribution
lemmaProbabilitylem:poisson-exponential-tail-2026aLet be a probability space, let be a real number, and let be a random variable on with the Poisson distribution with parameter . Write for the set consisting of and the natural numbers, for the factorial with , , for the exponential function, for the expectation (that of a nonnegative random variable being its integral, in ), and for the Borel -algebra of the real line. Sums of nonnegative terms indexed by are sums of a nonnegative function over a set, with values in . For put
1. (Series formula.) For every map which is measurable with respect to on both sides, is a nonnegative random variable and
2. (Exponential moments.) For every real number the random variable is integrable and
3. (Tail bounds.) For every real number ,
and consequently . Moreover whenever , so that all three bounds remain valid with in place of for any real .
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