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Kolmogorov's Maximal Inequality and the Convergence of Series of Independent Square-Integrable Random Variables

For independent centred square-integrable random variables with summable variances, Kolmogorov's maximal inequality holds for the partial sums, the series converges almost surely, and its sum is square-integrable with the tail variances as mean-square error.

Statement

In the setting of The Real Numbers: Standing Notation and Background, let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) be a probability space and let (ξk)k∈N(\xi_{k})_{k\in\mathbb{N}} be an independent sequence of square-integrable random variables on it, each with expectation E[ξk]=0\mathbb{E}[\xi_{k}]=0, such that the series ∑k=1∞E[ξk2]\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\mathbb{E}[\xi_{k}^{2}] converges. Let T0:Ω→RT_{0}:\Omega\to\mathbb{R} be the zero function and, for n∈Nn\in\mathbb{N}, let Tn=∑k=1nξkT_{n}=\sum_{k=1}^{n}\xi_{k}, defined pointwise. Let CC be the set of those ω∈Ω\omega\in\Omega for which the real sequence (Tn(ω))n∈N(T_{n}(\omega))_{n\in\mathbb{N}} converges, and define T:Ω→RT:\Omega\to\mathbb{R} by T(ω)=lim⁡n→∞Tn(ω)T(\omega)=\lim_{n\to\infty}T_{n}(\omega) for ω∈C\omega\in C and T(ω)=0T(\omega)=0 for ω∉C\omega\notin C. Then the following hold.

1. (Kolmogorov's maximal inequality) Let nn be zero or a natural number, let m∈Nm\in\mathbb{N} with n<mn<m, and let ε∈R\varepsilon\in\mathbb{R} be positive. Then the set AA of those ω∈Ω\omega\in\Omega with ∣Tj(ω)−Tn(ω)∣≥ε|T_{j}(\omega)-T_{n}(\omega)|\ge\varepsilon for some integer jj with n<j≤mn<j\le m is an event, and

P(A)≤1ε2∑k=n+1mE[ξk2].P(A)\le\frac{1}{\varepsilon^{2}}\sum_{k=n+1}^{m}\mathbb{E}[\xi_{k}^{2}].

2. (Almost sure convergence) C∈FC\in\mathcal{F} and P(C)=1P(C)=1.

3. (Mean-square convergence) TT is a square-integrable random variable, and for every nn that is zero or a natural number,

E[(T−Tn)2]=∑k=n+1∞E[ξk2].\mathbb{E}\bigl[(T-T_{n})^{2}\bigr]=\sum_{k=n+1}^{\infty}\mathbb{E}[\xi_{k}^{2}].

In particular E[T]=0\mathbb{E}[T]=0, E[T2]=∑k=1∞E[ξk2]\mathbb{E}[T^{2}]=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\mathbb{E}[\xi_{k}^{2}], and E[(T−Tn)2]→0\mathbb{E}[(T-T_{n})^{2}]\to0 as n→∞n\to\infty.

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