TheoremBase

Stochastic Process, Independent Increments, and Inhomogeneous Poisson Process

Statement

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) be a probability space and let R\mathbb{R} be the real numbers.

A stochastic process on [0,∞)[0,\infty) is a family X=(Xt)t≥0X=(X_t)_{t\ge0} of random variables on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) indexed by the nonnegative real numbers. The process XX has independent increments if for all real 0≤t0<t1<⋯<tr0\le t_0<t_1<\dots<t_r the random variables Xt1−Xt0,…,Xtr−Xtr−1X_{t_1}-X_{t_0},\dots,X_{t_r}-X_{t_{r-1}} are independent. (Differences of random variables are random variables: for every real uu, {Xt−Xs>u}=⋃q∈Q({Xt>q}∩{Xs<q−u})\{X_t-X_s>u\}=\bigcup_{q\in\mathbb{Q}}(\{X_t>q\}\cap\{X_s<q-u\}), where Q\mathbb{Q} denotes the rational numbers, using claim 1 of density of the rationals and the generator criterion of Measurable Map, and the Set of Measurable Maps.)

An intensity function is a nonnegative function λ:[0,∞)→R\lambda:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb{R} that is continuous at every point of [0,∞)[0,\infty) relative to [0,∞)[0,\infty), both [0,∞)[0,\infty) and the codomain R\mathbb{R} carrying the metric of the real line. Its mean function is

Λ(t)=∫0tλ(s) ds(t≥0),\Lambda(t)=\int_0^t\lambda(s)\,ds\qquad(t\ge0),

the Riemann integral, which for t>0t>0 exists because the restriction λ∣[0,t]\lambda|_{[0,t]} is continuous by claim 1 of Restriction Stability of Continuity and of the Derivative, so that claim 3 of Restricted Lebesgue Measure and Integral Toolkit on a Compact Interval applies, with Λ(0)=0\Lambda(0)=0. By additivity on adjacent intervals (Additivity of the Riemann Integral over Adjacent Intervals, Subintervals and Oriented Integrals, and Integrals of Restrictions), Λ(t)−Λ(s)=∫stλ(u) du\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(s)=\int_s^t\lambda(u)\,du for 0≤s≤t0\le s\le t, that lemma also yielding integrability of the restrictions, and this is nonnegative because every lower sum of a nonnegative function is nonnegative (upper and lower sums); hence Λ\Lambda is nondecreasing.

A stochastic process N=(Nt)t≥0N=(N_t)_{t\ge0} on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) is an inhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity λ\lambda if:

1. N0=0N_0=0;

2. NN has independent increments;

3. for all 0≤s<t0\le s<t, the increment Nt−NsN_t-N_s has the Poisson distribution with parameter Λ(t)−Λ(s)\Lambda(t)-\Lambda(s), in the sense of Distribution Functions.

If λ\lambda is constant with value θ≥0\theta\ge0, then Λ(t)=θt\Lambda(t)=\theta t (the Riemann integral of a constant, directly from the upper and lower sums), and NN is called a homogeneous Poisson process with rate θ\theta.

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