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Optional Stopping for Bounded Right-Continuous Square-Integrable Martingales on a Compact Time Interval

theoremProbabilitythm:optional-stopping-bounded-right-continuous-2026a
byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
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Reason: Optional stopping for bounded right-continuous square-integrable martingales on [0,T]; approved by Aaron.

Statement

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) be a probability space, let T>0T>0 and K0K\ge0 be real numbers, let (Ft)t[0,T](\mathcal{F}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} be a filtration on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) with time index restricted to [0,T][0,T], and let M=(Mt)t[0,T]M=(M_t)_{t\in[0,T]} be a square-integrable martingale with respect to (Ft)t[0,T](\mathcal{F}_t)_{t\in[0,T]}, with time index restricted to [0,T][0,T], such that Mt(ω)K|M_t(\omega)|\le K for every t[0,T]t\in[0,T] and every ωΩ\omega\in\Omega. Assume there is an event Ω0F\Omega_0\in\mathcal{F} with P(Ω0)=1P(\Omega_0)=1 such that for every ωΩ0\omega\in\Omega_0 the path tMt(ω)t\mapsto M_t(\omega) is right-continuous at every t[0,T)t\in[0,T) in the sense of the supremum lemma for bounded right-continuous processes: for every t[0,T)t\in[0,T) and every ε>0\varepsilon>0 there is η>0\eta>0 with Ms(ω)Mt(ω)ε|M_s(\omega)-M_t(\omega)|\le\varepsilon whenever tsmin(t+η,T)t\le s\le\min(t+\eta,T).

Let σ\sigma and τ\tau be stopping times of (Ft)t[0,T](\mathcal{F}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} with σ(ω)τ(ω)\sigma(\omega)\le\tau(\omega) for every ωΩ\omega\in\Omega, let Fσ\mathcal{F}_\sigma be the σ\sigma-algebra of events prior to σ\sigma, and let MσM_\sigma, MτM_\tau and Mτ=(Mmin(t,τ))t[0,T]M^\tau=(M_{\min(t,\tau)})_{t\in[0,T]} be the sampled functions and the stopped family. Write 1A\mathbf{1}_{A} for the function equal to 11 on AA and 00 off AA, and E\mathbb{E} for the expectation. Then:

(a) (Measurability.) For every stopping time ρ\rho of (Ft)t[0,T](\mathcal{F}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} (in particular for ρ=σ\rho=\sigma, ρ=τ\rho=\tau, and ρ=min(t,τ)\rho=\min(t,\tau) with t[0,T]t\in[0,T]), the sampled function Mρ1Ω0M_\rho\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0} is a random variable on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) with Mρ1Ω0K|M_\rho\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}|\le K everywhere. If every path of MM is right-continuous at every t[0,T)t\in[0,T), then MρM_\rho is measurable with respect to Fρ\mathcal{F}_\rho, the σ\sigma-algebra of events prior to ρ\rho.

(b) (Optional stopping.) For every DFσD\in\mathcal{F}_\sigma,

E[Mτ1Ω01D]=E[Mσ1Ω01D];\mathbb{E}\big[M_\tau\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\mathbf{1}_D\big]=\mathbb{E}\big[M_\sigma\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\mathbf{1}_D\big];

in particular, applying this with σ\sigma replaced by the constant stopping time 00 and D=ΩD=\Omega, E[Mτ1Ω0]=E[M0]\mathbb{E}[M_\tau\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}]=\mathbb{E}[M_0]. If every path of MM is right-continuous at every t[0,T)t\in[0,T), then MσM_\sigma is a conditional expectation of MτM_\tau given Fσ\mathcal{F}_\sigma.

(c) (The stopped process.) For all 0stT0\le s\le t\le T and every DFsD\in\mathcal{F}_s,

E[Mtτ1Ω01D]=E[Msτ1Ω01D].\mathbb{E}\big[M^\tau_t\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\mathbf{1}_D\big]=\mathbb{E}\big[M^\tau_s\,\mathbf{1}_{\Omega_0}\mathbf{1}_D\big].

If every path of MM is right-continuous at every t[0,T)t\in[0,T), then MτM^\tau is a square-integrable martingale with respect to (Ft)t[0,T](\mathcal{F}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} with time index restricted to [0,T][0,T] (that is, E[Mtτ1D]=E[Msτ1D]\mathbb{E}[M^\tau_t\mathbf{1}_D]=\mathbb{E}[M^\tau_s\mathbf{1}_D] for all 0stT0\le s\le t\le T and DFsD\in\mathcal{F}_s, each MtτM^\tau_t being Ft\mathcal{F}_t-measurable and square-integrable), with Mtτ(ω)K|M^\tau_t(\omega)|\le K for every tt and ω\omega, and every path of MτM^\tau is right-continuous at every t[0,T)t\in[0,T).

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