TheoremBase

The Conditional Kernel of a Probability Measure Given a Measurable Map

A conditional kernel of a probability measure given a measurable map is a probability kernel, indexed by the points of the target, whose average against the image measure over any target set reproduces the measure restricted to the preimage of that set.

Statement

In the setting of Measure Spaces and the Lebesgue Integral: Standing Notation, let (Z,dZ)(Z,d_{Z}) and (Y,dY)(Y,d_{Y}) be metric spaces with Borel σ\sigma-algebras B(Z)\mathcal{B}(Z) and B(Y)\mathcal{B}(Y), which are σ\sigma-algebras by claim 2 of Intersections of Sigma-Algebras and Minimality of the Generated Sigma-Algebra, so that (Z,B(Z))(Z,\mathcal{B}(Z)) and (Y,B(Y))(Y,\mathcal{B}(Y)) are measurable spaces. Let q:Z→Yq:Z\to Y be measurable with respect to B(Z)\mathcal{B}(Z) and B(Y)\mathcal{B}(Y), let π\pi be a Borel measure on (Z,dZ)(Z,d_{Z}) with π(Z)=1\pi(Z)=1, and let ν=q#π\nu=q_{\#}\pi be its image measure A↦π(q−1(A))A\mapsto\pi(q^{-1}(A)), a probability measure on (Y,B(Y))(Y,\mathcal{B}(Y)) by claim 1 of that lemma. For A∈B(Y)A\in\mathcal{B}(Y) and B∈B(Z)B\in\mathcal{B}(Z) the set B∩q−1(A)B\cap q^{-1}(A) belongs to B(Z)\mathcal{B}(Z), since q−1(A)∈B(Z)q^{-1}(A)\in\mathcal{B}(Z) by the measurability of qq and a σ\sigma-algebra is closed under finite intersections (Sigma-Algebra and Measurable Space). Let κ\kappa be a probability kernel from (Y,B(Y))(Y,\mathcal{B}(Y)) to (Z,B(Z))(Z,\mathcal{B}(Z)). The rectangle E=A×BE=A\times B belongs to the product σ\sigma-algebra B(Y)⊗B(Z)\mathcal{B}(Y)\otimes\mathcal{B}(Z); its section Ey={z:(y,z)∈E}E_{y}=\{z:(y,z)\in E\} is BB for y∈Ay\in A and ∅\varnothing otherwise, so κ(y,Ey)=1A(y) κ(y,B)\kappa(y,E_{y})=\mathbf{1}_{A}(y)\,\kappa(y,B) for every y∈Yy\in Y, because κ(y,∅)=0\kappa(y,\varnothing)=0; hence the function y↦1A(y) κ(y,B)y\mapsto\mathbf{1}_{A}(y)\,\kappa(y,B) is integrable with respect to ν\nu by Integration Against a Probability Kernel: Measurable Sections, the Composite Measure on the Product and the Iterated Integral §sections.

(Conditional kernel) A conditional kernel of π\pi given qq is a probability kernel κ\kappa from (Y,B(Y))(Y,\mathcal{B}(Y)) to (Z,B(Z))(Z,\mathcal{B}(Z)) such that

π(B∩q−1(A))=∫Y1A(y) κ(y,B) ν(dy)(A∈B(Y), B∈B(Z)),\pi\bigl(B\cap q^{-1}(A)\bigr)=\int_{Y}\mathbf{1}_{A}(y)\,\kappa(y,B)\,\nu(dy)\qquad(A\in\mathcal{B}(Y),\ B\in\mathcal{B}(Z)),

where ∫Yh(y) ν(dy)\int_{Y}h(y)\,\nu(dy) denotes ∫Yh dν\int_{Y}h\,d\nu.

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