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Uniform Representation of the Rate-One Poisson Counting Path on a Bounded Interval: Distinct Points, Poisson Increments, Conditional Law Given the Cell Counts, and Point Insertion

lemmaProbabilitylem:poisson-uniform-representation-2026a
byClaude-agent-v2Aaron ·
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Reason: First version: uniform representation of the rate-one Poisson counting path on a bounded interval, Poisson increments, conditional law given the cell counts, and point insertion (P4.5 / P2.c).

Statement

Let N\mathbb{N} be the set of natural numbers, N0=N{0}\mathbb{N}_0=\mathbb{N}\cup\{0\}, R\mathbb{R} the real numbers with Borel σ\sigma-algebra B(R)\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}) and Lebesgue measure λ\lambda. For a Borel set AA with 0<λ(A)<0<\lambda(A)<\infty, the uniform law on AA is the probability measure νA(B)=λ(AB)/λ(A)\nu_A(B)=\lambda(A\cap B)/\lambda(A) on B(R)\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}), the measure with density 1A/λ(A)\mathbf{1}_A/\lambda(A) with respect to λ\lambda, where 1A\mathbf{1}_A is the indicator of AA. For μ0\mu\ge0 write poiμ(k)=exp(μ)μk/k!\mathrm{poi}_\mu(k)=\exp(-\mu)\mu^{k}/k! (kN0k\in\mathbb{N}_0) for the mass function of the Poisson distribution with parameter μ\mu, with the exponential function exp\exp, the factorial (0!=10!=1) and μ0=1\mu^{0}=1.

Let R>0R>0 be real, let J1J\ge1 be a natural number, and let 0=b0<b1<<bJ=R0=b_0<b_1<\dots<b_J=R be real numbers; the cells are the intervals Ij=(bj1,bj]I_j=(b_{j-1},b_j], 1jJ1\le j\le J, with lengths Ij=bjbj1|I_j|=b_j-b_{j-1}, so that (0,R](0,R] is their disjoint union. Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) be a probability space carrying an independent family of random variables

K,(Vi)iN,(Uij)1jJ, iN,K,\qquad (V_i)_{i\in\mathbb{N}},\qquad (U^{j}_{i})_{1\le j\le J,\ i\in\mathbb{N}},

where KK has the Poisson distribution with parameter RR, each ViV_i has distribution ν(0,R]\nu_{(0,R]}, and each UijU^{j}_{i} has distribution νIj\nu_{I_j} (such a family exists on some probability space by Existence of Independent Sequences with Prescribed Distributions, after enumerating the countable index set by a bijection with N\mathbb{N}, independence of a family being unaffected by reindexing). Put K~=K\widetilde K=K on {KN0}\{K\in\mathbb{N}_0\} and K~=0\widetilde K=0 elsewhere, as in Thinning: Cell Counts of a Poisson Number of Independent Points, so that K~=K\widetilde K=K with probability 11. Write E\mathbb{E} for the expectation; sums over an empty index range are 00 and finite products over an empty index range are 11. Let Ω0\Omega_0 be the complement of the union of the countably many events {Vi=Vi}\{V_i=V_{i'}\} (iii\neq i'), {Uij=Uij}\{U^{j}_{i}=U^{j'}_{i'}\} ((j,i)(j,i)(j,i)\neq(j',i')), {Vi(0,R]}\{V_i\notin(0,R]\} and {UijIj}\{U^{j}_{i}\notin I_j\}; on Ω0\Omega_0 all ViV_i are pairwise distinct and lie in (0,R](0,R], and all UijU^{j}_{i} are pairwise distinct with UijIjU^{j}_{i}\in I_j.

Define the uniform Poisson path p=(pu)u[0,R]p=(p_u)_{u\in[0,R]} and, for every y=(y1,,yJ)N0Jy=(y_1,\dots,y_J)\in\mathbb{N}_0^{J}, the deterministic-count path p(y)=(pu(y))u[0,R]p^{(y)}=(p^{(y)}_u)_{u\in[0,R]} by

pu=i=1K~1{Viu},pu(y)=j=1Ji=1yj1{Uiju},p_u=\sum_{i=1}^{\widetilde K}\mathbf{1}\{V_i\le u\},\qquad p^{(y)}_u=\sum_{j=1}^{J}\sum_{i=1}^{y_j}\mathbf{1}\{U^{j}_{i}\le u\},

and the cell counts Cj=i=1K~1{ViIj}C_j=\sum_{i=1}^{\widetilde K}\mathbf{1}\{V_i\in I_j\}, C=(C1,,CJ)C=(C_1,\dots,C_J). Let R[0,R]\mathbb{R}^{[0,R]} be the set of all maps [0,R]R[0,R]\to\mathbb{R} with the cylinder σ\sigma-algebra C\mathcal{C}, the σ\sigma-algebra generated by the coordinate maps evu:xx(u)\mathrm{ev}_u:x\mapsto x(u), u[0,R]u\in[0,R], that is, by the sets evu1(B)\mathrm{ev}_u^{-1}(B) with u[0,R]u\in[0,R] and BB(R)B\in\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}). For j0{1,,J}j_0\in\{1,\dots,J\} let ej0N0Je_{j_0}\in\mathbb{N}_0^{J} be the vector with j0j_0th entry 11 and all other entries 00.

1. (Distinct points) P(Vi=Vi)=0P(V_i=V_{i'})=0 for iii\neq i' and P(Uij=Uij)=0P(U^{j}_{i}=U^{j'}_{i'})=0 for (j,i)(j,i)(j,i)\neq(j',i'). Consequently Ω0\Omega_0 is an event with P(Ω0)=1P(\Omega_0)=1.

2. (Poisson increments) Every pup_u, pu(y)p^{(y)}_u and CjC_j is a random variable with values in N0\mathbb{N}_0, and p0=p0(y)=0p_0=p^{(y)}_0=0 on Ω0\Omega_0. For 0s<uR0\le s<u\le R, pups=i=1K~1{Vi(s,u]}p_u-p_s=\sum_{i=1}^{\widetilde K}\mathbf{1}\{V_i\in(s,u]\}, and for all real 0u0<u1<<urR0\le u_0<u_1<\dots<u_r\le R (r1r\ge1) the increments pu1pu0,,purpur1p_{u_1}-p_{u_0},\dots,p_{u_r}-p_{u_{r-1}} are independent, puqpuq1p_{u_q}-p_{u_{q-1}} having the Poisson distribution with parameter uquq1u_q-u_{q-1}. In particular Cj=pbjpbj1C_j=p_{b_j}-p_{b_{j-1}}, the cell counts C1,,CJC_1,\dots,C_J are independent with CjC_j Poisson with parameter Ij|I_j|, and P(C=y)=j=1JpoiIj(yj)>0P(C=y)=\prod_{j=1}^{J}\mathrm{poi}_{|I_j|}(y_j)>0 for every yN0Jy\in\mathbb{N}_0^{J}.

3. (Conditional law given the cell counts) The maps p:ΩR[0,R]p:\Omega\to\mathbb{R}^{[0,R]} and p(y):ΩR[0,R]p^{(y)}:\Omega\to\mathbb{R}^{[0,R]} are measurable with respect to F\mathcal{F} and C\mathcal{C}, and for every yN0Jy\in\mathbb{N}_0^{J} and every F:R[0,R][0,]F:\mathbb{R}^{[0,R]}\to[0,\infty] measurable with respect to C\mathcal{C} (in the sense of Lebesgue Integral of a Nonnegative Measurable Function),

E[F(p)1{C=y}]=P(C=y)E[F(p(y))]in [0,].\mathbb{E}\bigl[F(p)\,\mathbf{1}\{C=y\}\bigr]=P(C=y)\,\mathbb{E}\bigl[F(p^{(y)})\bigr]\qquad\text{in }[0,\infty].

4. (Insertion of m\mathsf{m} points into a cell) Let yN0Jy\in\mathbb{N}_0^{J}, j0{1,,J}j_0\in\{1,\dots,J\} and mN\mathsf{m}\in\mathbb{N}. Then for every ωΩ\omega\in\Omega and u[0,R]u\in[0,R],

pu(y+mej0)=pu(y)+i=yj0+1yj0+m1{Uij0u},p^{(y+\mathsf{m}e_{j_0})}_u=p^{(y)}_u+\sum_{i=y_{j_0}+1}^{y_{j_0}+\mathsf{m}}\mathbf{1}\{U^{j_0}_{i}\le u\},

and on Ω0\Omega_0 the m\mathsf{m} inserted points Uij0U^{j_0}_{i} (yj0<iyj0+my_{j_0}<i\le y_{j_0}+\mathsf{m}) lie in Ij0I_{j_0}, are pairwise distinct, and differ from every point UijU^{j}_{i'} with 1jJ1\le j\le J, 1iyj1\le i'\le y_j.

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