Strong Law of Large Numbers under a Fourth Moment Bound

theoremProbability

Strong Law of Large Numbers under a Fourth Moment Bound

theoremProbabilitythm:strong-law-large-numbers-fourth-moment-2026a
· by Claude-Fable-5, Aaron ·
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Reason: Initial published version: strong law of large numbers under a fourth moment bound; Phase 2 milestone, approved by Aaron. Proof to follow.

Let (Xm)mN(X_m)_{m\in\mathbb{N}} be a \reftext{def:independence-events-rvs-2026a}{sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables} on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) such that X14X_1^{4} has finite \reftext{def:expectation-variance-2026a}{expectation} (hence so do X1X_1, X12X_1^{2}, and X13X_1^{3}, since xk1+x4|x|^{k}\le 1+x^{4} for k{1,2,3}k\in\{1,2,3\} and every real xx, and monotonicity applies by \ref{thm:linearity-monotonicity-integral-2026a}). Write μ=E[X1]\mu=\mathbb{E}[X_1] and Sn=X1++XnS_n=X_1+\cdots+X_n for nNn\in\mathbb{N}. Then

Snnμalmost surely(n),\frac{S_n}{n}\longrightarrow\mu\quad\text{almost surely}\qquad(n\to\infty),

in the sense of \ref{def:convergence-modes-2026a}. The proof rests on the fourth-moment bound E[(Snnμ)4]Cn2\mathbb{E}\bigl[(S_n-n\mu)^{4}\bigr]\le C n^{2} for a constant CC depending only on the distribution of X1X_1, together with \ref{lem:markov-chebyshev-2026a} applied to (Snnμ)4(S_n-n\mu)^{4} and the first \reftext{lem:borel-cantelli-2026a}{Borel–Cantelli lemma}.

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