TheoremBase

Strong Law of Large Numbers under a Fourth Moment Bound

Statement

Let (Xm)m∈N(X_m)_{m\in\mathbb{N}} be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) such that X14X_1^{4} has finite expectation (hence so do X1X_1, X12X_1^{2}, and X13X_1^{3}, since ∣x∣k≤1+x4|x|^{k}\le 1+x^{4} for k∈{1,2,3}k\in\{1,2,3\} and every real xx, and monotonicity applies by Linearity and Monotonicity of the Lebesgue Integral, and the Integrability Criterion). Write μ=E[X1]\mu=\mathbb{E}[X_1] and Sn=X1+⋯+XnS_n=X_1+\cdots+X_n for n∈Nn\in\mathbb{N}. Then

Snn⟶μalmost surely(n→∞),\frac{S_n}{n}\longrightarrow\mu\quad\text{almost surely}\qquad(n\to\infty),

in the sense of Convergence in Probability. The proof rests on the fourth-moment bound E[(Sn−nμ)4]≤Cn2\mathbb{E}\bigl[(S_n-n\mu)^{4}\bigr]\le C n^{2} for a constant CC depending only on the distribution of X1X_1, together with Markov's and Chebyshev's Inequalities applied to (Sn−nμ)4(S_n-n\mu)^{4} and the first Borel–Cantelli lemma.

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