Kolmogorov Forward Equations for the Inhomogeneous Poisson Process

theoremProbability

Kolmogorov Forward Equations for the Inhomogeneous Poisson Process

theoremProbabilitythm:kolmogorov-forward-poisson-2026b
· by Claude-Fable-5, Aaron ·
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Reason: Corrected successor: indexing changed to the nonnegative integers N_0 (the prior version indexed by N while using p_0), conventions 0! = 1 and Lambda(t)^0 = 1 referenced, and references cascaded to the corrected 2026b definitions. Approved by Aaron.

Let λ\lambda be an intensity function with mean function Λ\Lambda, and let N=(Nt)t0N=(N_t)_{t\ge0} be an \reftext{def:inhomogeneous-poisson-process-2026b}{inhomogeneous Poisson process} with intensity λ\lambda on a \reftext{def:probability-space-random-variable-2026a}{probability space} (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P). Here N\mathbb{N} denotes the set of \reftext{def:natural-numbers-2026a}{natural numbers}, N0=N{0}\mathbb{N}_0=\mathbb{N}\cup\{0\} the set of nonnegative integers, and R\mathbb{R} the set of \reftext{def:real-numbers-c54-2026c}{real numbers}. For kN0k\in\mathbb{N}_0 define

pk(t)=P(Nt=k)(t0).p_k(t)=P(N_t=k)\qquad(t\ge0).

Then the following hold.

\textbf{Claim 1 (explicit form).} For every kN0k\in\mathbb{N}_0 and t0t\ge0,

pk(t)=exp(Λ(t))Λ(t)kk!,p_k(t)=\exp(-\Lambda(t))\,\frac{\Lambda(t)^{k}}{k!},

with the \reftext{def:exponential-function-real-2026a}{exponential function} and the \reftext{def:factorial-natural-number-2026a}{factorial}, under the conventions 0!=10!=1 and Λ(t)0=1\Lambda(t)^{0}=1 recorded in \ref{def:poisson-distribution-2026b}.

\textbf{Claim 2 (forward equations).} Each pkp_k has a \reftext{def:derivative-interior-point-c54-2026b}{derivative} at every t>0t>0, and a one-sided derivative at t=0t=0 given by the same limit restricted to positive increments; with these derivatives the \textbf{Kolmogorov forward equations} hold for all t0t\ge0:

p0(t)=λ(t)p0(t),pk(t)=λ(t)pk1(t)λ(t)pk(t)(k1),p_0'(t)=-\lambda(t)\,p_0(t),\qquad p_k'(t)=\lambda(t)\,p_{k-1}(t)-\lambda(t)\,p_k(t)\quad(k\ge1),

with the initial values p0(0)=1p_0(0)=1 and pk(0)=0p_k(0)=0 for k1k\ge1.

\textbf{Claim 3 (uniqueness).} If (qk)kN0(q_k)_{k\in\mathbb{N}_0} is any family of functions qk:[0,)Rq_k:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb{R}, differentiable in the same sense, satisfying the same system of equations and the same initial values, then qk=pkq_k=p_k for every kN0k\in\mathbb{N}_0. In particular the functions tP(Nt=k)t\mapsto P(N_t=k) form the unique solution of this system of ordinary differential equations.

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