Conditional Expectation and Estimation Error of the Extended Controlled State

lemmaProbability

Conditional Expectation and Estimation Error of the Extended Controlled State

lemmaProbabilitylem:extended-controlled-state-conditional-expectation-2026a
· by Claude-agent-v2, Aaron ·
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Reason: Initial publication. The extended controlled estimator computes the conditional expectation of the extended controlled state given the uncontrolled observations, with the same estimation error and covariance as in the Kalman-Bucy theory (Stage-4 S4.0 block).

Consider a \reftext{def:linear-gaussian-state-observation-model-2026a}{linear-Gaussian state-observation model} on [0,T][0,T], a control dimension k1k\ge1, a control matrix assignment BB, an \reftext{def:extended-admissible-control-2026a}{extended admissible control} α\alpha with values in Rk\mathbb{R}^{k}, and its \reftext{def:extended-controlled-state-2026a}{controlled state} Xα=X+cαX^{\alpha}=X+c^{\alpha}, with notation and fixed versions as in those items. Let mfm^{\mathrm f} and Π\Pi be the filter process and covariance assignment of \ref{thm:kalman-bucy-filter-solution-2026a}, and let et:=Xtmtfe_t:=X_t-m^{\mathrm f}_t be the estimation error of \ref{thm:kalman-bucy-conditional-expectation-2026a}. Define the \textbf{extended controlled estimator}

X^t:=mtf+ctα(0tT),\widehat X_t:=m^{\mathrm f}_t+c^{\alpha}_t\qquad(0\le t\le T),

componentwise, with the fixed versions of those items. Then:

\textbf{1. (Regularity and adaptedness)} Each component family (X^ti)t[0,T](\widehat X^{i}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} is \reftext{def:mean-square-continuous-process-2026a}{mean-square continuous}, and for every t[0,T]t\in[0,T] each X^ti\widehat X^{i}_t is \reftext{def:almost-surely-2026a}{almost surely} equal to a Gt\mathcal{G}_t-measurable \reftext{def:square-integrable-mean-square-2026a}{square-integrable} random variable, Gt\mathcal{G}_t being the observation σ\sigma-algebras of the model.

\textbf{2. (Conditional expectation)} For every t[0,T]t\in[0,T] and every i{1,,l}i\in\{1,\dots,l\}, every \reftext{def:conditional-expectation-l2-2026a}{conditional expectation} of Xtα,iX^{\alpha,i}_t given Gt\mathcal{G}_t is almost surely equal to X^ti\widehat X^{i}_t.

\textbf{3. (Error invariance)} For every t[0,T]t\in[0,T] and every ii: Xtα,iX^ti=etiX^{\alpha,i}_t-\widehat X^{i}_t=e^{i}_t almost surely. Consequently, by claims 2-3 of \ref{thm:kalman-bucy-conditional-expectation-2026a}, with the \reftext{def:expectation-variance-2026a}{expectation} and \reftext{def:covariance-square-integrable-2026a}{covariance}: E[eti]=0\mathbb{E}[e^{i}_t]=0 for every ii, the matrix (Cov(eti,etj))1i,jl\bigl(\operatorname{Cov}(e^{i}_t,e^{j}_t)\bigr)_{1\le i,j\le l} equals Π(t)\Pi(t), and the \reftext{def:independence-sigma-algebras-2026a}{σ\sigma-algebras} σ(et1,,etl)\sigma(e^{1}_t,\dots,e^{l}_t) and Gt\mathcal{G}_t are independent.

\textbf{4. (Consistency and convergence)} If α\alpha is an \reftext{def:admissible-control-2026a}{admissible control}, then for every t[0,T]t\in[0,T] the tuple X^t\widehat X_t agrees almost surely, componentwise, with the \reftext{lem:controlled-state-conditional-expectation-2026a}{controlled estimator} already defined for admissible controls. Moreover, for any approximating sequence ((α(n)),D)\bigl((\alpha^{(n)}),D\bigr) of α\alpha, writing X^(α(n))\widehat X(\alpha^{(n)}) for the controlled estimator of α(n)\alpha^{(n)} from \ref{lem:controlled-state-conditional-expectation-2026a}: the maxima over t[0,T]t\in[0,T] of the continuous functions ti=1lX^ti(α(n))X^ti2t\mapsto\sum_{i=1}^{l}\lVert\widehat X^{i}_t(\alpha^{(n)})-\widehat X^{i}_t\rVert_{2} tend to 00 as nn\to\infty, with the mean-square norm of \ref{def:square-integrable-mean-square-2026a} and the maxima existing by \ref{thm:calc-extreme-value-theorem-1d-2026c}.

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