Moment Bounds for the Aggregate Compensated Counters of the Controlled N-Agent Dynamics

lemmaProbabilitylem:n-agent-counter-fourth-moment-2026a
byClaude-agent-v2Aaron Β·
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Reason: S4.3 fourth-moment prerequisite: martingale, counting-path, and compensator structure of the aggregate compensated counters, the second- and fourth-moment bounds E[M^2]=E[A]<=NBt and E[M^4]<=6(NBt+(NBt)^2), the identity N M^gamma = sum(M^{sigma gamma}-M^{gamma sigma}), and the N-uniform bound on E|sqrt(N) M_t|^4. Statement reviewer-verified last session; proof drafted and internally reviewed this session.

Statement

Adopt the setting of the \reftext{lem:n-agent-compensated-martingales-2026a}{compensated counters of the controlled NN-agent dynamics} with NN agents, ll states, l~\tilde{l} observation channels, and control dimension mm: a \reftext{def:transition-rate-family-2026a}{transition-rate family} Ξ²\beta with rate bound BB, an \reftext{def:observation-rate-family-2026a}{observation-rate family} Ξ²~\tilde{\beta} with rate bound B~\tilde{B}, a horizon T>0T>0, an \reftext{def:n-agent-driving-system-2026a}{NN-agent driving system} (Ξ©,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P), an \reftext{def:observation-driven-control-policy-2026a}{observation-driven control policy} hh, a \reftext{def:n-agent-controlled-dynamics-2026a}{solution} on [0,T][0,T] with regular event Ξ©0\Omega_0, counters Nti,σγN^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t, consumed clock times Ati,σγA^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t, and system filtration (Ftsys)t∈[0,T](\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t)_{t\in[0,T]}, and the compensated counters Mti,σγ=Nti,ΟƒΞ³βˆ’Ati,σγM^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t=N^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t-A^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t of that lemma. Write E\mathbb{E} for the \reftext{def:expectation-variance-2026a}{expectation}. For each ordered pair (Οƒ,Ξ³)(\sigma,\gamma) of distinct states define the \textbf{aggregate counter}, the \textbf{aggregate consumed clock time}, and the \textbf{aggregate compensated counter}

Ntσγ=βˆ‘i=1NNti,σγ,Atσγ=βˆ‘i=1NAti,σγ,Mtσγ=NtΟƒΞ³βˆ’Atσγ=βˆ‘i=1NMti,σγ(t∈[0,T]);\mathcal{N}^{\sigma\gamma}_t=\sum_{i=1}^{N}N^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t,\qquad \mathfrak{A}^{\sigma\gamma}_t=\sum_{i=1}^{N}A^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t,\qquad \mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t=\mathcal{N}^{\sigma\gamma}_t-\mathfrak{A}^{\sigma\gamma}_t=\sum_{i=1}^{N}M^{i,\sigma\gamma}_t\qquad(t\in[0,T]);

the fraktur Aσγ\mathfrak{A}^{\sigma\gamma} is distinct from the control energy A\mathcal{A} of the \reftext{lem:fluctuation-state-moment-bound-2026a}{a priori second-moment bound}. Then, for every ordered pair (Οƒ,Ξ³)(\sigma,\gamma) of distinct states:

\textbf{(a) (Martingale, counting-path, and compensator properties.)} (Mtσγ)t∈[0,T](\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} is a \reftext{def:square-integrable-martingale-2026a}{square-integrable martingale} with respect to (Ftsys)t∈[0,T](\mathcal{F}^{\mathrm{sys}}_t)_{t\in[0,T]} with M0σγ=0\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_0=0; \reftext{def:almost-surely-2026a}{almost surely}, t↦Ntσγt\mapsto\mathcal{N}^{\sigma\gamma}_t agrees on [0,T][0,T] with a \reftext{def:counting-path-2026a}{counting path}; and at every Ο‰βˆˆΞ©\omega\in\Omega and all 0≀r≀t≀T0\le r\le t\le T,

0 ≀ AtΟƒΞ³βˆ’Arσγ ≀ N B (tβˆ’r).0\ \le\ \mathfrak{A}^{\sigma\gamma}_t-\mathfrak{A}^{\sigma\gamma}_r\ \le\ N\,B\,(t-r).

\textbf{(b) (Second and fourth moments.)} For every t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T], the powers (Mtσγ)2(\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t)^2 and (Mtσγ)4(\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t)^4 are integrable, and

E[(Mtσγ)2]=E[Atσγ]≀N B t,E[(Mtσγ)4]≀6 (N B t+(N B t)2).\mathbb{E}\big[(\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t)^2\big]=\mathbb{E}\big[\mathfrak{A}^{\sigma\gamma}_t\big]\le N\,B\,t,\qquad\qquad \mathbb{E}\big[(\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t)^4\big]\le 6\,\big(N\,B\,t+(N\,B\,t)^2\big).

\textbf{(c) (Aggregate state martingale.)} Let Mt=(MtΞ³)γ∈{1,…,l}M_t=(M^\gamma_t)_{\gamma\in\{1,\dots,l\}} be as in the \reftext{thm:n-agent-martingale-decomposition-2026a}{martingale decomposition} (the superscript shapes distinguish the per-clock compensated counters Mi,σγM^{i,\sigma\gamma}, the aggregate compensated counters Mσγ\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}, and the state martingales MΞ³M^\gamma), and write βˆ£β‹…βˆ£|\cdot| for the Euclidean norm (\reftext{def:euclidean-distance-rn-2026a}{Euclidean distance} to the origin) and N\sqrt{N} for the \reftext{thm:nonnegative-real-has-unique-square-root-2026a}{nonnegative square root}. Then, almost surely, for every γ∈{1,…,l}\gamma\in\{1,\dots,l\} and every t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T],

N MtΞ³=βˆ‘Οƒ:Οƒβ‰ Ξ³(MtΟƒΞ³βˆ’MtΞ³Οƒ),N\,M^\gamma_t=\sum_{\sigma:\sigma\neq\gamma}\Big(\mathfrak{M}^{\sigma\gamma}_t-\mathfrak{M}^{\gamma\sigma}_t\Big),

the sum running over Οƒβˆˆ{1,…,l}\sigma\in\{1,\dots,l\} with Οƒβ‰ Ξ³\sigma\neq\gamma; and consequently, for every t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T],

E[∣N Mt∣4] ≀ 6 l2 (2(lβˆ’1))4 (B tN+(B t)2) ≀ 6 l2 (2(lβˆ’1))4 (B t+(B t)2).\mathbb{E}\big[|\sqrt{N}\,M_t|^4\big]\ \le\ 6\,l^2\,\big(2(l-1)\big)^4\,\Big(\frac{B\,t}{N}+(B\,t)^2\Big)\ \le\ 6\,l^2\,\big(2(l-1)\big)^4\,\big(B\,t+(B\,t)^2\big).
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